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Do the Oilers *really* believe in the process?

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

So, one of the things I've thought about a bunch recently is how committed the Oilers are to "The Process" - they reference it all the time, and talk about how they believe in it. However, I think there's a common thread of the Oilers playing well, not getting rewarded, then something bad happening and the whole thing collapsing and a close fought game turning into a blowout - exactly what you wouldn't expect from a team that believed they were going in the right direction.

Let's take a look at this on the team level:

Score Tied:

Corsi: 49.4% (20th in NHL)

Fenwick: 48.4% (20th in NHL)

PDO: 97.5 (24th in NHL)

Okay - so when things are in the balance, the Oilers are not spectacular, but they are certainly improved over recent years. Some slightly better goaltending and they could be a fringe playoff contender.

However, let's say we have such a game where the game is close, competitive, and then for whatever reason, the other team gets the first goal. The Oilers are now down 1.

Score: Down 1:

At this point, you might start seeing some score effects, and in fact the Oilers benefit substantially in terms of possession numbers here.

Corsi: 56.7% (11th in NHL)

Fenwick: 55.7% (10th in NHL)

PDO: 91.3 (27th in NHL)

Well, that's a bit odd. They are cranking up the pressure and taking a lot of puck possession. However, suddenly their goaltending influence goes substantially negative. I think every Oiler fan recognizes this (behind, we seem to be pressing, suddenly a rush or giveaway the other way, and their goalie stands tall while ours lets in a weak one). Now what?

Score: Down 2+:

Corsi: 57.5% (13th in NHL)

Fenwick: 53.3% (18th in NHL)

PDO: 93.9 (22nd in NHL)

Now it's getting concerning; down 2+ (a situation the Oilers have been in far too much this year), we are barely getting a bump in Corsi, and actually have a lower Fenwick. Meanwhile, our goaltending influence continues to be highly negative.

What does it all mean?

Tied, this team fights, and is competitive with a lot of other teams. I don't see this as an area of concern for the players or coaches.

Down 1, they continue to press; they have a lot of puck possession, but are not getting rewarded. The substantial difference and subsequent horrific PDO, however, makes me think that they are over pressing - likely, they are getting off a lot of shots, but of low quality, while giving up significant chances in the other direction, which is going to have a poor impact on their PDO (low quality shots for, high quality shots against).

Down 2+, it's pretty shocking; this is where you'd expect to see substantial score effects. Instead, you're seeing barely any difference from 1 down. It's not so much that these numbers are concerning; it's more that there should be more of a spread, and to me indicates that the Oilers are taking too many risks down by 1 (generating possession time but giving up too many high quality chances, resulting in low PDO).

Ok, so what about when the Oilers are ahead, and feeling confident?

Up 1:

Corsi: 35.8% (28th in NHL)

Fenwick: 35.7% (28th in NHL)

PDO: 105.1 (8th in NHL)

Well bleh to that. Once we get the lead, we are going into the defensive shell of all defensive shells, and seeing a similar effect in reverse on our goaltending influence (I'm not going to include our 2+ goal leads as this has only occurred for 36 minutes so far this year; suffice to say our possession numbers are lousy there).

This might be the most interesting section of all; when we get the lead, we move to an insanely different style of hockey. There's no goaltending blame that can be assigned here - the Oilers are simply being dominated in every way you can be dominated possession wise once they get the lead. A very telling concern to me.

Belief in the Process?

What I take out of all of this is that you have a team that talks constantly about "The Process". However, they play 3 entirely different styles of hockey:

1) Tie game - their base style, which seems to be decent enough in terms of possession and has been hampered in terms of results thus far by goaltending issues.

2) Ahead - its bunker down and hold on time; they are sort of aware that a black disc is out there on the ice, but certainly not going to get it for any purpose other than dumping it out. The giant collapse that goes on here serves to inflate their goalie's save percentage, but little else.

3) Behind - down by 1? Damn the system and damn the torpedoes, it's full speed ahead. The puck will be shot at the other net constantly, and if this means giving up odd man rushes or leaving guys uncovered in the slot, that's the price of doing business.

Having three distinct styles of hockey being played based on a *one goal difference* is not indicative of a team that believes in the process they are following. Good teams give up a goal, or score a goal, and just continue what they're doing, confident that if they continue playing well, the score will take care of itself. That's not what the Oilers do, and to me, the biggest indictment of the coaching staff at the moment.

The Copper & Blue is a fan community that allows members to post their own thoughts and opinions on the Edmonton Oilers and hockey in general. These posts do not necessarily represent the views of the staff of The Copper & Blue.

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