David Perron's Career Peak

Richard Wolowicz

Not to pile on, but...

12 games into his time in Edmonton, I noted that David Perron was on a career-best stretch of shots on goal.  7 games later, and again in his next game, Perron hit new career segment highs.  I've updated the chart to show Perron's rolling shots on goal per 12 games:

Perronshotsupdate

The 12-game high of 56 shots and his 80 shots in 20 games was a truly remarkable run for the left winger.

Now for the bad news.  You'll note the fall-off in the chart since.  Perron managed to get 80 shots on goal in his first 20 games, but then just 44 in his next 20 and 54 in his last 26.

If we assume Perron's true talent level to be .12 shots per minute of time spent on the ice (his career average to begin the season), the probability of him getting 56 shots or more on goal in 12 games is miniscule - just about 1 in 5 million.  The odds of him getting 80 shots or more on goal in 20 games is about 1 in 3.5 million. If we assume his new career average is his established talent level, the numbers are still astounding:  the odds of 56 shots or more on goal in 12 games is 1 in 1 million and 80 shots or more in 20 games works out to about 1 in 854,000.

Even if we assume that the release from the constricting Hitchcockian system in St. Louis has given Perron a new lease on life and use his 134 shots in 897 minutes thus far this season as his new established talent level, the odds of 56 shots or more on goal in 12 games is 1 in 1,225 (179 seasons' worth) and the odds of 80 shots or more on goal in 20 games is 1 in 850 (207 seasons' worth).

Combine Perron's curious shots on goal pop with the peak age of forwards in the NHL and the propensity for shot rates to decrease with age, and we've seen a brief, albeit amazing peak.  While Perron has been outstanding for a completely dismal team this season, sadly, the odds are unimaginably long that Perron plays at this level ever again.

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