FanPost

Jordan Eberle the 5th Wheel

Disclaimer: I like Jordan Eberle and I think Taylor Hall the best player on the Oilers. I will even grant that Hall should be on a higher wicket than Eberle. I think Eberle is the 2nd best player on the Oilers. I even own a Jordan Eberle shirt. My Grandma is from Saskatchewan. I was raised in Mill Woods and live in New Zealand. I come home once a year for an Oilers game, except last year I came in October and the lockout screwed me over. I don't like Taylor Hall's lips (They bother me in a Mick Jagger kind of way). That covers my biases.

There has been quite a lot said about Jordan Eberle's performance, salary and value. Derek Zona is on record as stating:

So when the Oilers run a 68% line of Hall – Hopkins – Yakupov and Eberle is stuck without his tow truck, it’s not a good deal.

You don’t hand out $6 million to a guy on an RFA deal that needs a tow truck.

and:

At some point Oilers fans will put down the Flavor Aid and use logic when the looking at Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall.

So instead of using "Flavour Aid" I wanted to look at it logically.

So let's look at it statistically. I have taken only last year in this one.

Taylor Hall is an amazing player and any player should be better with him on the ice. For the most part this was true using WOWY stats. There were only 7 players accounting for about 2.4% of total ice time(6 players on ice) that were worse with Taylor Hall on the ice.

This is a chart of Taylor Hall and his Forward linemates WOWY with Corsi Percentages.

NAME POS TOI CF20 CA20 CF% TOI CF20 CA20 CF% Difference
EBERLE, JORDAN R 432:05:00 21.48 18.05 54.30 277:55:00 16.12 20.08 44.50 -9.80
HEMSKY, ALES R 128:20:00 17.45 20.88 45.50 334:17:00 15.26 19.86 43.40 -2.10
YAKUPOV, NAIL R 54:09:00 14.40 25.85 35.80 506:42:00 15.00 19.74 43.20 7.40
NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN C 389:35:00 21.66 18.02 54.60 199:03:00 13.56 21.20 39.00 -15.60
GAGNER, SAM C 114:48:00 18.64 20.91 47.10 552:12:00 14.89 20.46 42.10 -5.00
HORCOFF, SHAWN C 113:43:00 18.64 23.04 44.70 233:17:00 15.00 21.00 41.70 -3.00

What we can gather from this information is that Eberle is 9.8 Percentage points WORSE when he isn't playing with Taylor Hall, and RNH is an even worse 15.6 Percentage points WORSE.

Derek's suggested line of Hall-RNH-Yak has Nail Yakupov is actually 7.4 Percentage points BETTER without Hall in 54 minutes of playing time, so this isn't terribly significant. But interesting nonetheless. Everyone else of his regular linemates is worse off.

Hall is without a doubt an excellent player. However, he only gets above 50% with Eberle & RNH.

Now we'll look at how much of a 5th Wheel Eberle is to the Taylor Hall truck, with the same charts.

NAME POS TOI CF20 CA20 CF% TOI CF20 CA20 CF% Difference
NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN C 487:32:00 20.06 18.67 51.80 101:06:00 13.45 21.17 38.90 -12.90
GAGNER, SAM C 166:21:00 18.76 18.88 49.80 500:39:00 14.46 21.09 40.70 -9.10
HALL, TAYLOR L 432:05:00 21.48 18.05 54.30 219:04:00 16.80 22.73 42.50 -11.80
PAAJARVI, MAGNUS L 113:50:00 16.16 18.98 46.00 385:38:00 14.63 19.24 43.20 -2.80
SMYTH, RYAN L 56:29:00 17.35 24.08 41.90 470:48:00 15.08 19.71 43.30 1.40
JONES, RYAN L 39:19:00 15.26 16.79 47.60 260:47:00 15.03 20.32 42.50 -5.10

First thing we notice is that Taylor Hall is 11.8 Percentage points WORSE when he isn't playing with Eberle, and RNH is 12.9 Percentage points WORSE when he isn't playing with Eberle.

If we ran the same chart on RNH we would see that Jordan Eberle is 3.6 Percentage points WORSE when he isn't playing with RNH, and Taylor Hall is 10.6 Percentage points WORSE when he isn't playing with RNH.

Second only Ryan Smith is better without Eberle.

There were only 8 players accounting for 3.4% of the total ice time that were WORSE off with Eberle as their linemate.

CONCLUSIONS:

It does not appear to me that Hall alone is driving the possession stats when in fact both Hall & RNH are more worse off without Eberle than Eberle & RNH is without Hall.

I think the stats indicates that Eberle carries his own weight statistically through possession and in fact may even be better than Hall in this regards.

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