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Another Look at the MacT Trades (using past draft data)

I was curious what the value of various 'picks' were for the long term for the team. I took data from the 2001-2010 drafts and compared the long term outcomes for the selected players.

I used 'ranges' centred near the picks involved to expand the sample size to about 30 picks over 10 years (to lower the impact that a random great 113th overall pick would have). What I found is presented in the tables below.

The results still leave some room for subjective interpretation, but in the end, I think it defends MacT's decision. The very small difference between the 37th overall and the 57th suggests that everything else is a bonus.

I will leave it to others to examine the data and draw your own conclusions.

Some statistical insights into the MacT Trades

Data from 2001 through 2010 draft years.

37ish = 36 through 38 overall

57ish = 56 through 58 overall

85ish = 83 through 88 overall

95ish = 94 through 96 overall

113ish = 112 though 114

The wider capture for 85 was to catch the 83 and 88, both of which were part of the Oilers trades. This does not affect the tables below in a meaningful way as everything is proportional

Group

% of Group who played 1 Game in NHL

% of Group who played 30+ Game in NHL

% of Group who played 100+ Game in NHL

% of Group who played 200+ Game in NHL

37ish

63.3%

36.7%

26.7%

20.0%

57ish

42.4%

36.4%

24.2%

18.2%

85ish

28.8%

25.0%

13.5%

3.8%

95ish

45.2%

30.9%

16.7%

11.9%

113ish

36.7%

13.3%

6.7%

3.3%

Forwards with OVER 100 GAMES in NHL

Average Points Per Game

37ish

0.337

57ish

0.391

85ish

0.345

95ish

0.508

113ish

-

Defence with OVER 100 GAMES in NHL

Average Points Per Game

37ish

0.288

57ish

0.189

85ish

0.195

95ish

0.227

113ish

0.269

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