In light of the Leafs making the playoffs solely on the strength of their PDO. I thought I would check through common stats to decide what the most important ones to be in the top 16 of in any given year - in order to be in the playoffs. These are the Results:
- 1)Goal Differential Percentage - 81.3% Made It
- 2)Goal Against Actual - 76.3% Made It
- 3=)Fenwick Percentage - 75.0% Made It
- 3=)Corsi Percentage - 75.0% Made It
- 5)Shot Percentage - 71.3% Made It
- 6=)Zone Faceoff Percentage (Offensive Zone vs Defensive Zone) - 67.5% Made It
- 6=)PDO - 67.5% Made It
- 8)Goal For Actual - 66.3% Made It
Now what about if you finished in the top 8 of these categories in any given year?
- 1)Goal Differential Percentage - 97.5% Made It
- 2)Goal Against Actual - 92.5% Made It
- 3)Corsi Percentage - 87.5% Made It
- 4)Fenwick Percentage - 82.5% Made It
- 5=Shot Percentage - 80.0% Made It
- 5=)Zone Faceoff Percentage (Offensive Zone vs Defensive Zone) - 80.0% Made It
- 7=)PDO - 77.5% Made It
- 7=)Goal For Actual - 77.5% Made It
It is no surprise that Goal Differential is the nuumber 1 thing that successful teams have. The underlying results of the success were interesting to me.
Goals Against being much more important than Goals For.
The relative importance of Corsi over Fenwick - take that you Fenwick lovers. (Minor difference, but enought to say Fenwick sucks :))
Shot precentage is less important than all that.
I was actually surprised that the Offensive Zone/Defensive Zone faceoff percentage was more important than both PDO & Goals For.
All things being considered when making a playoff team, Defense First, followed by Corsi.
Which make the Oilers need for defensemen all the more relevant. Any surprises for you in these results?