I was reading threads about people defending Mike Brown and what he brings to the Oilers, and how he is important to their success. I wanted to prove that he had NO effect as a Deterrent. Because the NHL is no place for chickens.
Well I had the opposite result. This a much bigger impact than I expected.
What I did is more or less a Corsi analysis of Hits, so looked at who was on the ice when a hit was taken or given. Then came up with a +/- of that player on the ice in terms of whether when they are on the ice, there is more or less punishment.
I did it individually and as a team. I did a WOWY analysis of Mike Brown over this same period. And also tried to negate the Home Ice / Away Ice bias. Some very interesting results.
First chart is a Team Chart.
OILERS | |||||
GP | For | Against | Hit +/- | HPG +/- | |
TOTAL | 35 | 4561 | 4525 | 36 | 1.03 |
PRE BROWN | 21 | 2688 | 2797 | -109 | -5.19 |
W/BROWN | 14 | 1873 | 1728 | 145 | 10.36 |
HOME | 17 | 2434 | 2172 | 262 | 15.41 |
PRE BROWN | 10 | 1322 | 1247 | 75 | 7.50 |
W/BROWN | 7 | 1112 | 925 | 187 | 26.71 |
AWAY | 18 | 2127 | 2353 | -226 | -12.56 |
PRE BROWN | 11 | 1366 | 1550 | -184 | -16.73 |
W/BROWN | 7 | 761 | 803 | -42 | -6.00 |
This second chart all the individuals that make up the team chart. Player numbers to represent the Player not names.
TOTAL | Pre Brown | W/ Brown | Home | Away | Home | Pre Brown | Home | W/Brown | Away | Pre Brown | Away | W/Brown | |||||||||||||||||
Player | GP | For | Against | Total | HPG +/- | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total | For | Against | Total |
55 | 14 | 112 | 48 | 64 | 4.57 | 103 | 44 | 59 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 17 | 36 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 53 | 17 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
5 | 35 | 325 | 213 | 112 | 3.20 | 180 | 124 | 56 | 145 | 89 | 56 | 162 | 94 | 68 | 163 | 119 | 44 | 78 | 52 | 26 | 84 | 42 | 42 | 102 | 72 | 30 | 61 | 47 | 14 |
24 | 4 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 3.00 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 12 | 6 | 6 |
13 | 14 | 89 | 51 | 38 | 2.71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 51 | 38 | 55 | 27 | 28 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 27 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 24 | 10 |
45 | 17 | 156 | 110 | 46 | 2.71 | 116 | 83 | 33 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 98 | 65 | 33 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
35 | 8 | 197 | 176 | 21 | 2.63 | 134 | 112 | 22 | 63 | 64 | -1 | 127 | 101 | 26 | 70 | 75 | -5 | 78 | 59 | 19 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 56 | 53 | 3 | 14 | 22 | -8 |
94 | 34 | 244 | 160 | 84 | 2.47 | 131 | 100 | 31 | 113 | 60 | 53 | 140 | 77 | 63 | 104 | 83 | 21 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 74 | 34 | 40 | 65 | 57 | 8 | 39 | 26 | 13 |
28 | 17 | 116 | 77 | 39 | 2.29 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 75 | 48 | 27 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 21 | 3 |
37 | 28 | 179 | 118 | 61 | 2.18 | 94 | 70 | 24 | 85 | 48 | 37 | 92 | 49 | 43 | 87 | 69 | 18 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 62 | 29 | 33 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 23 | 19 | 4 |
2 | 35 | 328 | 256 | 72 | 2.06 | 186 | 160 | 26 | 142 | 96 | 46 | 168 | 131 | 37 | 160 | 125 | 35 | 83 | 85 | -2 | 85 | 46 | 39 | 103 | 75 | 28 | 57 | 50 | 7 |
20 | 23 | 148 | 107 | 41 | 1.78 | 124 | 85 | 39 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 84 | 53 | 31 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 68 | 37 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
16 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 1.75 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
34 | 3 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 1.33 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 17 | 8 |
54 | 11 | 49 | 44 | 5 | 0.45 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
40 | 29 | 540 | 548 | -8 | -0.28 | 317 | 344 | -27 | 223 | 204 | 19 | 276 | 248 | 28 | 264 | 300 | -36 | 141 | 139 | 2 | 135 | 109 | 26 | 176 | 205 | -29 | 88 | 95 | -7 |
91 | 30 | 151 | 162 | -11 | -0.37 | 76 | 77 | -1 | 75 | 85 | -10 | 89 | 93 | -4 | 62 | 69 | -7 | 47 | 45 | 2 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 33 | 37 | -4 |
64 | 35 | 170 | 183 | -13 | -0.37 | 92 | 126 | -34 | 78 | 57 | 21 | 87 | 92 | -5 | 83 | 91 | -8 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 35 | 30 | 5 |
44 | 22 | 123 | 135 | -12 | -0.55 | 65 | 74 | -9 | 58 | 61 | -3 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 69 | 74 | -5 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 34 | 32 | 2 |
89 | 35 | 203 | 225 | -22 | -0.63 | 125 | 143 | -18 | 78 | 82 | -4 | 104 | 107 | -3 | 99 | 118 | -19 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 62 | 80 | -18 | 37 | 38 | -1 |
15 | 35 | 219 | 249 | -30 | -0.86 | 127 | 152 | -25 | 92 | 97 | -5 | 126 | 114 | 12 | 93 | 135 | -42 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 57 | 89 | -32 | 36 | 46 | -10 |
56 | 19 | 81 | 103 | -22 | -1.16 | 72 | 95 | -23 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
10 | 18 | 87 | 115 | -28 | -1.56 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 60 | 72 | -12 | 60 | 56 | 4 | 27 | 59 | -32 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 16 | 33 | -17 |
93 | 32 | 169 | 222 | -53 | -1.66 | 110 | 154 | -44 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 83 | 94 | -11 | 86 | 128 | -42 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 54 | 96 | -42 | 32 | 32 | 0 |
14 | 35 | 173 | 237 | -64 | -1.83 | 101 | 150 | -49 | 72 | 87 | -15 | 86 | 110 | -24 | 87 | 127 | -40 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 53 | 91 | -38 | 34 | 36 | -2 |
62 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -2.00 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6 | 27 | 140 | 197 | -57 | -2.11 | 73 | 105 | -32 | 67 | 92 | -25 | 74 | 104 | -30 | 66 | 93 | -27 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 24 | 33 | -9 |
83 | 34 | 145 | 217 | -72 | -2.12 | 101 | 134 | -33 | 44 | 83 | -39 | 83 | 108 | -25 | 62 | 109 | -47 | 53 | 62 | -9 | 30 | 46 | -46 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 14 | 37 | -23 |
19 | 35 | 212 | 302 | -90 | -2.57 | 136 | 197 | -61 | 76 | 105 | -29 | 127 | 140 | -13 | 85 | 162 | -77 | 77 | 81 | -4 | 50 | 59 | -59 | 59 | 116 | -57 | 26 | 46 | -20 |
4 | 32 | 126 | 212 | -86 | -2.69 | 70 | 119 | -49 | 56 | 93 | -37 | 74 | 103 | -29 | 52 | 109 | -57 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 29 | 65 | -36 | 23 | 44 | -21 |
Finally I wanted to see what our star players are receiving in per game punishment while they are on the ice.
Hits Per Game | ||||
Pre | With | |||
Hall | 18 | 6.61 | 6.64 | 14 |
Eberle | 21 | 7.14 | 6.21 | 14 |
RNH | 20 | 7.70 | 5.67 | 12 |
Hemsky | 21 | 6.38 | 6.38 | 13 |
Yakupov | 21 | 6.00 | 4.07 | 14 |
Gagner | 21 | 6.81 | 5.86 | 14 |
JSchultz | 21 | 9.38 | 7.50 | 14 |
There is a very real statistical impact around Mike Brown's arrival. Is he a deterrent? Or are these stats just coincidence?
Please remember every hit is counted 1 x every player on the ice.