FanPost

Proof Of Mike Brown As A Deterrent

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I was reading threads about people defending Mike Brown and what he brings to the Oilers, and how he is important to their success. I wanted to prove that he had NO effect as a Deterrent. Because the NHL is no place for chickens.

Well I had the opposite result. This a much bigger impact than I expected.

What I did is more or less a Corsi analysis of Hits, so looked at who was on the ice when a hit was taken or given. Then came up with a +/- of that player on the ice in terms of whether when they are on the ice, there is more or less punishment.

I did it individually and as a team. I did a WOWY analysis of Mike Brown over this same period. And also tried to negate the Home Ice / Away Ice bias. Some very interesting results.

First chart is a Team Chart.

OILERS
GP For Against Hit +/- HPG +/-
TOTAL 35 4561 4525 36 1.03
PRE BROWN 21 2688 2797 -109 -5.19
W/BROWN 14 1873 1728 145 10.36
HOME 17 2434 2172 262 15.41
PRE BROWN 10 1322 1247 75 7.50
W/BROWN 7 1112 925 187 26.71
AWAY 18 2127 2353 -226 -12.56
PRE BROWN 11 1366 1550 -184 -16.73
W/BROWN 7 761 803 -42 -6.00

This second chart all the individuals that make up the team chart. Player numbers to represent the Player not names.

TOTAL Pre Brown W/ Brown Home Away Home Pre Brown Home W/Brown Away Pre Brown Away W/Brown
Player GP For Against Total HPG +/- For Against Total For Against Total For Against Total For Against Total For Against Total For Against Total For Against Total For Against Total
55 14 112 48 64 4.57 103 44 59 9 4 5 53 17 36 59 31 28 53 17 36 0 0 0 50 27 23 9 4 5
5 35 325 213 112 3.20 180 124 56 145 89 56 162 94 68 163 119 44 78 52 26 84 42 42 102 72 30 61 47 14
24 4 37 25 12 3.00 25 19 6 12 6 6 14 5 9 23 20 3 14 5 9 0 0 0 11 14 -3 12 6 6
13 14 89 51 38 2.71 0 0 0 89 51 38 55 27 28 34 24 10 0 0 0 55 27 28 0 0 0 34 24 10
45 17 156 110 46 2.71 116 83 33 40 27 13 98 65 33 58 45 13 64 43 21 34 22 12 52 40 12 6 5 1
35 8 197 176 21 2.63 134 112 22 63 64 -1 127 101 26 70 75 -5 78 59 19 49 42 7 56 53 3 14 22 -8
94 34 244 160 84 2.47 131 100 31 113 60 53 140 77 63 104 83 21 66 43 23 74 34 40 65 57 8 39 26 13
28 17 116 77 39 2.29 41 29 12 75 48 27 57 27 30 59 50 9 6 0 6 51 27 24 35 29 6 24 21 3
37 28 179 118 61 2.18 94 70 24 85 48 37 92 49 43 87 69 18 30 20 10 62 29 33 64 50 14 23 19 4
2 35 328 256 72 2.06 186 160 26 142 96 46 168 131 37 160 125 35 83 85 -2 85 46 39 103 75 28 57 50 7
20 23 148 107 41 1.78 124 85 39 24 22 2 64 54 10 84 53 31 56 48 8 8 6 2 68 37 31 16 16 0
16 4 12 5 7 1.75 12 5 7 0 0 0 3 0 3 9 5 4 3 0 3 0 0 0 9 5 4 0 0 0
34 3 30 26 4 1.33 5 9 -4 25 17 8 5 9 -4 25 17 8 5 9 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 17 8
54 11 49 44 5 0.45 45 42 3 4 2 2 24 27 -3 25 17 8 24 27 -3 0 0 0 21 15 6 4 2 2
40 29 540 548 -8 -0.28 317 344 -27 223 204 19 276 248 28 264 300 -36 141 139 2 135 109 26 176 205 -29 88 95 -7
91 30 151 162 -11 -0.37 76 77 -1 75 85 -10 89 93 -4 62 69 -7 47 45 2 42 48 -6 29 32 -3 33 37 -4
64 35 170 183 -13 -0.37 92 126 -34 78 57 21 87 92 -5 83 91 -8 44 65 -21 43 27 16 48 61 -13 35 30 5
44 22 123 135 -12 -0.55 65 74 -9 58 61 -3 54 61 -7 69 74 -5 30 32 -2 24 29 -5 35 42 -7 34 32 2
89 35 203 225 -22 -0.63 125 143 -18 78 82 -4 104 107 -3 99 118 -19 63 63 0 41 44 -3 62 80 -18 37 38 -1
15 35 219 249 -30 -0.86 127 152 -25 92 97 -5 126 114 12 93 135 -42 70 63 7 56 51 5 57 89 -32 36 46 -10
56 19 81 103 -22 -1.16 72 95 -23 9 8 1 49 57 -8 32 46 -14 45 54 -9 4 3 1 27 41 -14 5 5 0
10 18 87 115 -28 -1.56 27 43 -16 60 72 -12 60 56 4 27 59 -32 16 17 -1 44 39 5 11 26 -15 16 33 -17
93 32 169 222 -53 -1.66 110 154 -44 59 68 -9 83 94 -11 86 128 -42 56 58 -2 27 36 -9 54 96 -42 32 32 0
14 35 173 237 -64 -1.83 101 150 -49 72 87 -15 86 110 -24 87 127 -40 48 59 -11 38 51 -13 53 91 -38 34 36 -2
62 1 0 2 -2 -2.00 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 27 140 197 -57 -2.11 73 105 -32 67 92 -25 74 104 -30 66 93 -27 31 45 -14 43 59 -16 42 60 -18 24 33 -9
83 34 145 217 -72 -2.12 101 134 -33 44 83 -39 83 108 -25 62 109 -47 53 62 -9 30 46 -46 48 72 -24 14 37 -23
19 35 212 302 -90 -2.57 136 197 -61 76 105 -29 127 140 -13 85 162 -77 77 81 -4 50 59 -59 59 116 -57 26 46 -20
4 32 126 212 -86 -2.69 70 119 -49 56 93 -37 74 103 -29 52 109 -57 41 54 -13 33 49 -16 29 65 -36 23 44 -21

Finally I wanted to see what our star players are receiving in per game punishment while they are on the ice.

Hits Per Game
Pre With
Hall 18 6.61 6.64 14
Eberle 21 7.14 6.21 14
RNH 20 7.70 5.67 12
Hemsky 21 6.38 6.38 13
Yakupov 21 6.00 4.07 14
Gagner 21 6.81 5.86 14
JSchultz 21 9.38 7.50 14

There is a very real statistical impact around Mike Brown's arrival. Is he a deterrent? Or are these stats just coincidence?

Please remember every hit is counted 1 x every player on the ice.

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