FanPost

Proof of Quality of Shot



It has been a while since we discussed shooting percentages, I wondered how Gagner compared to Eberle.

Gagner has a 15.5% Shooting Percentage, and Eberle 18.9% last year, it would seem obvious that Eberle is a bigger outlier than Gagner, but the reality is they are much closer to each other than the 3.4% difference suggests.

My methodolgy here, was the see that an average NHL forward shooting percentage was and how distance affected it, and there is a very distinct correlation between distance and shooting percentage.

This first chart, is 5 v 5, NHL Forwards with more than 40 games in last 4 seasons (20 GP this year). We are left with NHL regulars. It would be nice if I could find Blocked Shots per player as well.

NOTES: Real Sh% includes Misses, % Miss is the number of shots that miss the net, which is higher than I expected, Effect is Shooting % at distance less the average Shooting %, Re Eff is the same thing but including missed shots.

Evens








GP G Sv Miss Sh% Real Sh% % Miss Effect Re Eff
<25 7248 1139 9094 3392 11.13% 8.36% 33.15% 1.43% 1.21%
25-27 9938 1551 13353 5144 10.41% 7.74% 34.51% 0.71% 0.59%
27-29 17942 2786 24523 9538 10.20% 7.56% 34.93% 0.50% 0.41%
29-31 20279 3073 27632 11108 10.01% 7.35% 36.18% 0.31% 0.20%
31-33 18983 2778 27854 11027 9.07% 6.67% 36.00% -0.63% -0.48%
33> 15478 1867 20406 8261 8.38% 6.11% 37.09% -1.32% -1.04%
TOTALS 89868 13194 122862 48470 9.70% 7.15% 35.63%

This second chart is the Oilers over the last two seasons, sorted by the difference from what would be expected based on the above chart, and ordered from highest to lowest expected shooting percentage based on distance from the goal.

NAME TEAM GP Goals Saves Misses Avg Dist SH% Real SH% % Miss Expect Diff
SAMGAGNER
EDM 33 9 46 22 31.6 16.36% 11.69% 28.57% 9.07% 7.29%
MIKEBROWN EDM 24 1 9 8 37.1 10.00% 5.56% 44.44% 8.38% 1.62%
MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON EDM 28 5 46 6 27.9 9.80% 8.77% 10.53% 10.20% -0.40%
LENNARTPETRELL EDM 26 1 10 6 31 9.09% 5.88% 35.29% 10.01% -0.92%
JORDANEBERLE EDM 33 7 66 20 22.9 9.59% 7.53% 21.51% 11.13% -1.54%
NAILYAKUPOV EDM 33 2 28 16 31.4 6.67% 4.35% 34.78% 9.07% -2.40%
TAYLORHALL EDM 30 6 73 21 29.1 7.59% 6.00% 21.00% 10.01% -2.41%
ALESHEMSKY EDM 32 4 50 6 26.4 7.41% 6.67% 10.00% 10.41% -3.00%
RYANSMYTH EDM 32 1 40 14 27.8 2.44% 1.82% 25.45% 10.20% -7.76%
RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS EDM 30 1 46 20 26.3 2.13% 1.49% 29.85% 10.41% -8.28%
ERICBELANGER EDM 23 0 23 3 34.2 0.00% 0.00% 11.54% 8.38% -8.38%
NAME TEAM GP Goals Saves Misses Avg Dist SH% Real SH% % Miss Expect Diff
JORDANEBERLE
EDM 78 24 104 50 26.6 18.75% 13.48% 28.09% 10.41% 8.34%
RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS EDM 62 15 90 41 27.4 14.29% 10.27% 28.08% 10.20% 4.08%
BENEAGER EDM 63 8 61 25 33.7 11.59% 8.51% 26.60% 8.38% 3.21%
SAMGAGNER EDM 75 12 103 61 31.4 10.43% 6.82% 34.66% 9.07% 1.37%
SHAWNHORCOFF EDM 81 7 84 46 33.8 7.69% 5.11% 33.58% 8.38% -0.69%
RYANJONES EDM 79 11 111 44 29.5 9.02% 6.63% 26.51% 10.01% -0.99%
RYANSMYTH EDM 82 15 147 66 26.2 9.26% 6.58% 28.95% 10.41% -1.15%
TAYLORHALL EDM 61 13 134 60 29.3 8.84% 6.28% 28.99% 10.01% -1.16%
LENNARTPETRELL EDM 60 3 31 13 30.1 8.82% 6.38% 27.66% 10.01% -1.18%
ALESHEMSKY EDM 69 9 109 37 28.8 7.63% 5.81% 23.87% 10.20% -2.57%
DARCYHORDICHUK EDM 43 1 26 4 38.9 3.70% 3.23% 12.90% 8.38% -4.68%
ERICBELANGER EDM 78 2 91 38 33.6 2.15% 1.53% 29.01% 8.38% -6.23%
MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON EDM 41 2 64 20 29.2 3.03% 2.33% 23.26% 10.01% -6.98%
ANTONLANDER EDM 56 1 48 13 30.5 2.04% 1.61% 20.97% 10.01% -7.97%

There are a number of interesting performances over the past two year. But notice that though Eberle '12 was 2.34% higher than Gagner '13, the difference expected based on where they shoot from is only 1.05%. Gagner shoots from further back on average than Eberle.

Now to make the same comparison on Power Play, note I couldn't source the Missed Shots for the Powerplay.

Powerplay
GP G Sv Sh% Effect
<11 2464 25 62 28.74% 13.93%
11-16 8561 282 1331 17.48% 2.68%
16-21 15178 840 4074 17.09% 2.29%
21-26 20042 1054 5565 15.92% 1.12%
26-31 13448 719 4437 13.94% -0.86%
31> 17184 809 5994 11.89% -2.91%
TOTALS 76877 3729 21463 14.80%

Notice the distance ranges have changed. This is because on the powerplay forwards in part can get in much closer for their shots. Also a 14.80% Shooting percentage is average for forward on the powerplay.

Now to the Oilers Powerplay.

NAME TEAM GP Goals Saves Avg Dist SH% Expect Diff
ALESHEMSKY
EDM 32 5 7 21.4 41.67% 15.92% 25.74%
MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON EDM 28 1 1 11 50.00% 28.74% 21.26%
NAILYAKUPOV EDM 33 3 11 32.6 21.43% 11.89% 9.54%
JORDANEBERLE EDM 33 3 11 27.2 21.43% 13.94% 7.48%
SAMGAGNER EDM 33 3 13 29 18.75% 13.94% 4.81%
TAYLORHALL EDM 30 2 9 20.2 18.18% 17.09% 1.09%
RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS EDM 30 1 11 26.5 8.33% 13.94% -5.61%
ERICBELANGER EDM 23 0 1 22 0.00% 15.92% -15.92%
RYANSMYTH EDM 32 0 6 14.2 0.00% 17.48% -17.48%
NAME TEAM GP Goals Saves Avg Dist SH% Expect Diff
RYANJONES
EDM 79 3 3 15.8 50.00% 17.48% 32.52%
SHAWNHORCOFF EDM 81 5 14 14.7 26.32% 17.48% 8.83%
TAYLORHALL EDM 61 11 38 25.3 22.45% 15.92% 6.53%
JORDANEBERLE EDM 78 10 37 27.4 21.28% 15.92% 5.35%
RYANSMYTH EDM 82 4 16 17.5 20.00% 17.09% 2.91%
SAMGAGNER EDM 75 5 23 19.2 17.86% 17.09% 0.76%
ERICBELANGER EDM 78 1 9 39.8 10.00% 11.89% -1.89%
RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS EDM 62 3 19 29.5 13.64% 15.92% -2.29%
ALESHEMSKY EDM 69 1 12 37.5 7.69% 11.89% -4.20%
ANTONLANDER EDM 56 0 2 45.5 0.00% 11.89% -11.89%
MAGNUSPAAJARVI-SVENSSON EDM 41 0 10 19 0.00% 17.09% -17.09%

This is intriguing as well Eberle is consistent on the Powerplay over both years. And shoots from further back on the Powerplay due to is point shot location. Yet has a higher percentage. Sam Gagner has had a bump in his Powerplay percentages despite shooting from further away.

So although Eberle '12 has a higher shooting percentage than Gagner '13, but almost on par from what would be expected.

Eberle is the bigger Outlier, but not by as big of margin as their raw shooting percentages suggest.

The very interesting thing is there is a direct correlation to shooting percentage and distance.

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