We've all heard the Jordan Eberle hot hand debate based on his 2011-12 percentages, PDO's and regression to the mean. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to look at the debate from a different perspective. What if, at the end of 2011-12, you picked a team from the players who finished with the lowest PDO's - the players who had "bad luck" - and assembled a team for the 2012-13 season?
In this experiment, we're talking about players who are expected to regress to the mean.
My criteria: Filter each position by the Lowest 15 PDO finishes, among those 15 Top TOI, and less than 10% on-ice shooting %.
Here is the PDO lineup and the numbers in a Name (P/60 LY|PDO, P/60|PDO) format. This is all based on 5 on 5 play only. Bold indicates regression, and strikethrough indicates little or no movement.
- John Tavares(2.37|975
2.34|950) [Tavares ppg has gone up this year due to PP, despite decrease in 5 on 5 PDO]
- Ryan Getzlaf (1.38|977 2.53|1054)
- P A Parenteau (2.27|973 2.95|1053)
- Dominic Moore (NOT PLAYING)
- Bench: Tom Pyatt (1.22|971 2.85|1126)
- Andrew Ladd (1.77|972 1.85|1015)
- Chad Larose (1.50|971
0.54|957) [Larose's TOI is down by 3:68 per game, impacted by Alexander Semin joining the Hurricances]
- Sean Bergenheim (INJURED)
- David Booth (INJURED)
- Bench: Daniel Winnik (1.04|972 3.47|1121)
- Ilya Kovalchuk (2.00|982
0.62|1036) [PDO up, he hasn't had any secondary assists this year. Parise effect possibly as well]
- Corey Perry (1.54|980 1.83|1014)
- Ryan Callahan (1.64|979
0.63|985) [PDO up, but no 5 on 5 assists and losing ice time to Rick Nash]
- Kyle Okposo (1.99|983
0.98|943) [Tavares PDO is down as well.]
- Bench: Devin Setoguchi (1.35|977
1.24|1013) [Has yet to score this season.]
- Francois Beauchemin (0.54|975 1.53|1118)
- Dustin Byfuglien (1.27|981
0.95|967) [INJURED - Better ppg this year as well.]
- Dion Phaneuf (0.71|971
0.25|965) [Playing more this year.]
- Mark Streit (0.92|959
0.57|914) [Every Islander on this list is down on PDO.]
- Cam Fowler (0.65|962
0.63|1062) [INJURED - was also being used in lower pairing.]
- Nick Leddy (1.02|977
0.95|1025) [Dropped to 3rd pair with 6 minutes less TOI.]
- Bench: Drew Doughty (0.96|986
0.30|896) [Stanley Cup Hangover]
- Bench: Tom Gilbert (0.71|986 1.15|990)
Improved PDO - 13/20 (3 Not playing)
Improved Scoring - 8/20
The season is still too young to see the full body of work on the statistical comparison from last year to this year. It will be interesting to compare at EOY the difference.
In some cases this is easily explained by the difference in roles Larose, Callahan & Leddy are playing with worse teammates this year so less points would be expected and worse percentages perhaps.
As a way of selecting players if you keep a player in a similar role with similar teammates it is a little better than a coin flip at predicting results.