Nothing is really changing at the top of the predictive rankings, and barring goaltending or special teams collapses, I doubt much will soon. The league is stratified right now and the top layer is Western Conference all the way. Thankfully, for the East, the Western Conference contains Alberta, so there is layer of compacted Western sludge at the bottom.
My power rankings use a model based on underlying statistics and their predictive ability. The rankings were built on points earned, special teams, even strength play and goaltending, so they were constantly in flux. I'm still playing around with the model, and I've added opponents remaining this season. I've also updated the special teams evaluation so it's shots-based, not solely conversion based. Here is my best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.
Rank |
Team |
Share |
1 |
St Louis |
2.53 |
2 |
Minnesota |
3.05 |
3 |
Chicago |
3.59 |
4 |
San Jose |
3.73 |
5 |
Los Angeles |
4.92 |
6 |
Anaheim |
4.98 |
7 |
Boston |
5.73 |
8 |
Pittsburgh |
6.65 |
9 |
Vancouver |
6.94 |
10 |
Detroit |
8.70 |
11 |
Colorado |
9.91 |
12 |
Montreal |
10.23 |
13 |
Dallas |
10.47 |
14 |
Tampa Bay |
11.12 |
15 |
New Jersey |
11.22 |
16 |
Phoenix |
11.59 |
17 |
NY Rangers |
11.61 |
18 |
Nashville |
11.91 |
19 |
Ottawa |
12.91 |
20 |
NY Islanders |
13.44 |
21 |
Toronto |
13.56 |
22 |
Washington |
13.87 |
23 |
Winnipeg |
14.32 |
24 |
Philadelphia |
15.34 |
25 |
Carolina |
15.44 |
26 |
Columbus |
16.52 |
27 |
Calgary |
16.70 |
28 |
Florida |
18.00 |
29 |
Edmonton |
18.62 |
30 |
Buffalo |
20.65 |
- We need a sitting nickname for the top six like "The Dirty Half-Dozen", only better.
- Bad news for Panthers fans, Edmonton is slowly pulling away for a chokehold on 29th place.
- Minnesota has the league's 2nd best special teams, is 3rd best at even strength and 4th thus far in goaltending. The goaltending is likely going to falter, but if the skaters maintain their level of play, they aren't going to fall far.
Rank |
Team |
Share |
1 |
St. Louis |
2.53 |
2 |
Minnesota |
3.05 |
3 |
Chicago |
3.59 |
4 |
San Jose |
3.73 |
5 |
Los Angeles |
4.92 |
6 |
Anaheim |
4.98 |
9 |
Vancouver |
6.94 |
11 |
Colorado |
9.91 |
13 |
Dallas |
10.47 |
16 |
Phoenix |
11.59 |
18 |
Nashville |
11.91 |
23 |
Winnipeg |
14.32 |
27 |
Calgary |
16.70 |
29 |
Edmonton |
18.62 |
- Winnipeg gets Calgary next, followed by likely losses to Chicago and Minnesota to end the homestand. They set out on a six-game Eastern Conference road trip against the Devils, Islanders, Flyers, Rangers, Panthers and Lightning. Time to make up ground, Jets fans.
- In the NHL had relegation, would Alberta have a team?
Rank |
Team |
Share |
7 |
Boston |
5.73 |
8 |
Pittsburgh |
6.65 |
10 |
Detroit |
8.70 |
12 |
Montreal |
10.23 |
14 |
Tampa Bay |
11.12 |
15 |
New Jersey |
11.22 |
17 |
NY Rangers |
11.61 |
19 |
Ottawa |
12.91 |
20 |
NY Islanders |
13.44 |
21 |
Toronto |
13.56 |
22 |
Washington |
13.87 |
24 |
Philadelphia |
15.34 |
25 |
Carolina |
15.44 |
26 |
Columbus |
16.52 |
28 |
Florida |
18.00 |
30 |
Buffalo |
20.65 |
- Would Dallas be the best team in the Eastern Conference?
Western Conference |
|
Eastern Conference |
Pacific Division |
|
Atlantic Division |
4 |
San Jose |
|
7 |
Boston |
9 |
Vancouver |
|
14 |
Tampa Bay |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
Los Angeles |
|
10 |
Detroit |
6 |
Anaheim |
|
12 |
Montreal |
|
|
|
|
|
Central Division |
|
Metro Division |
1 |
St Louis |
|
8 |
Pittsburgh |
11 |
Colorado |
|
19 |
Ottawa |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
Minnesota |
|
15 |
New Jersey |
3 |
Chicago |
|
17 |
NY Rangers |
- Looking at these playoff matchups, I think there are three teams in the West that don't make the playoffs that could easily be Eastern Conference finalists.