Predictive Power Rankings: Relegation Would Be Fun, Right?

Are Seguin and his new mates better than his old mates? - Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas is 9th in the West - are they better than the best in the East?

Nothing is really changing at the top of the predictive rankings, and barring goaltending or special teams collapses, I doubt much will soon.  The league is stratified right now and the top layer is Western Conference all the way.  Thankfully, for the East, the Western Conference contains Alberta, so there is layer of compacted Western sludge at the bottom.

My power rankings use a model based on underlying statistics and their predictive ability. The rankings were built on points earned, special teams, even strength play and goaltending, so they were constantly in flux. I'm still playing around with the model, and I've added opponents remaining this season. I've also updated the special teams evaluation so it's shots-based, not solely conversion based. Here is my best effort at predicting the standings and playoff pairings at the end of the season.

Rank Team Share
1 St Louis 2.53
2 Minnesota 3.05
3 Chicago 3.59
4 San Jose 3.73
5 Los Angeles 4.92
6 Anaheim 4.98
7 Boston 5.73
8 Pittsburgh 6.65
9 Vancouver 6.94
10 Detroit 8.70
11 Colorado 9.91
12 Montreal 10.23
13 Dallas 10.47
14 Tampa Bay 11.12
15 New Jersey 11.22
16 Phoenix 11.59
17 NY Rangers 11.61
18 Nashville 11.91
19 Ottawa 12.91
20 NY Islanders 13.44
21 Toronto 13.56
22 Washington 13.87
23 Winnipeg 14.32
24 Philadelphia 15.34
25 Carolina 15.44
26 Columbus 16.52
27 Calgary 16.70
28 Florida 18.00
29 Edmonton 18.62
30 Buffalo 20.65

  • We need a sitting nickname for the top six like "The Dirty Half-Dozen", only better.
  • Bad news for Panthers fans, Edmonton is slowly pulling away for a chokehold on 29th place.
  • Minnesota has the league's 2nd best special teams, is 3rd best at even strength and 4th thus far in goaltending.  The goaltending is likely going to falter, but if the skaters maintain their level of play, they aren't going to fall far.
Rank Team Share
1 St. Louis 2.53
2 Minnesota 3.05
3 Chicago 3.59
4 San Jose 3.73
5 Los Angeles 4.92
6 Anaheim 4.98
9 Vancouver 6.94
11 Colorado 9.91
13 Dallas 10.47
16 Phoenix 11.59
18 Nashville 11.91
23 Winnipeg 14.32
27 Calgary 16.70
29 Edmonton 18.62
  • Winnipeg gets Calgary next, followed by likely losses to Chicago and Minnesota to end the homestand.  They set out on a six-game Eastern Conference road trip against the Devils, Islanders, Flyers, Rangers, Panthers and Lightning.  Time to make up ground, Jets fans.
  • In the NHL had relegation, would Alberta have a team? 
Rank Team Share
7 Boston 5.73
8 Pittsburgh 6.65
10 Detroit 8.70
12 Montreal 10.23
14 Tampa Bay 11.12
15 New Jersey 11.22
17 NY Rangers 11.61
19 Ottawa 12.91
20 NY Islanders 13.44
21 Toronto 13.56
22 Washington 13.87
24 Philadelphia 15.34
25 Carolina 15.44
26 Columbus 16.52
28 Florida 18.00
30 Buffalo 20.65
  • Would Dallas be the best team in the Eastern Conference?
Western Conference Eastern Conference
Pacific Division Atlantic Division
4 San Jose 7 Boston
9 Vancouver 14 Tampa Bay
5 Los Angeles 10 Detroit
6 Anaheim 12 Montreal
Central Division Metro Division
1 St Louis 8 Pittsburgh
11 Colorado 19 Ottawa
2 Minnesota 15 New Jersey
3 Chicago 17 NY Rangers
  • Looking at these playoff matchups, I think there are three teams in the West that don't make the playoffs that could easily be Eastern Conference finalists.
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker