FanPost

Winners & Losers From The 2007 Draft

Pre-season_in_calgary_019_medium
Photo by Lisa McRitchie, all rights reserved

As we approach the 2012 draft day I thought it would be nice to reflect on past drafts. There is a common sentiment in all sports that you can’t "call" a draft until 5 years after the fact. According to this concept, we can now put the 2007 draft in the books. I don’t know that I necessarily agree with this in hockey given the 18 year old draft age, but what the hell. Let’s give it a try. On topic for Oiler fans, this is the Sam Gagner draft. It's also the year that the Oilers had 3 first round picks.

I’m going to shamelessly steal ideas from this great post done by The Falconer on the now defunct blog Bird Watchers Anonymous. I strongly suggest you read his post before you continue with this one to see what I am building on.

The first thing we need to do is establish a common measuring stick for all players. The best out there that I know of is Tom Awads GVT. It is admittedly a flawed stat, but that is a topic for another time. ( I would like to thank Tom for making this information available to the public.)

First lets take a look at this draft from a high level simply in terms of games played.

Round Num. Drafted By Player Pos GP
1 1 Chicago Patrick Kane R 399
1 6 Edmonton Sam Gagner C 366
2 61 Los Angeles Wayne Simmonds R 322
1 7 Columbus Jakub Voracek R 319
1 26 St. Louis David Perron C 292
1 11 Carolina Brandon Sutter C 286
5 129 Dallas Jamie Benn L 222
1 5 Washington Karl Alzner D 215
1 22 Montreal Max Pacioretty L 202
1 2 Philadelphia James Van Riemsdyk L 196
7 194 Toronto Carl Gunnarsson D 187
1 3 Phoenix Kyle Turris C 186
2 55 Colorado T.J. Galiardi W 185
1 9 San Jose Logan Couture C 184
2 58 Nashville Nick Spaling C 179
1 13 St. Louis Lars Eller F 163
2 43 Montreal P.K. Subban D 160
1 14 Colorado Kevin Shattenkirk D 153
1 24 Calgary Mikael Backlund C 138
1 16 Minnesota Colton Gillies L 127
1 12 Montreal Ryan McDonagh D 122
4 117 New Jersey Matt Halischuk R 121
1 10 Florida Keaton Ellerby D 116
4 95 Los Angeles Alec Martinez D 115
3 73 Montreal Yannick Weber D 109
2 47 Tampa Bay Dana Tyrell C 104
7 201 San Jose Justin Braun D 94
2 79 New Jersey Nick Palmieri R 87
3 52 Los Angeles Oscar Moller C 87
6 173 San Jose Nick Bonino C 85
4 116 Calgary Keith Aulie D 76
2 40 Florida Michal Repik R 72
4 110 Minnesota Justin Falk D 72
3 72 Carolina Drayson Bowman L 69
6 171 Pittsburgh Dustin Jeffrey C 66
4 97 Edmonton Linus Omark W 65
6 168 NY Rangers Carl Hagelin L 64
4 93 Anaheim Steven Kampfer D 61
4 99 Toronto Matt Frattin R 57
1 23 Nashville Jonathon Blum D 56
3 71 Florida Evgeny Dadonov R 55
1 18 St. Louis Ian Cole D 52
2 44 St. Louis Aaron Palushaj R 41
2 42 Anaheim Eric Tangradi L 40
7 203 San Jose Frazer McLaren L 39
4 111 Pittsburgh Luca Caputi L 35
1 89 Buffalo Corey Tropp R 34
3 29 Ottawa Jim O'Brien C 34
4 109 Los Angeles Dwight King C 33
6 179 Buffalo Paul Byron C 30
3 63 Anaheim Maxime Macenauer C 29
3 67 Atlanta Spencer Machacek R 25
5 144 Nashville Andreas Thuresson R 25
5 140 Minnesota Cody Almond C 25
4 94 Columbus Maksim Mayorov L 22
6 152 Philadelphia Jon Kalinski L 22
1 8 Boston Zach Hamill C 20
2 32 Phoenix Brett MacLean L 18
7 200 Minnesota Carson McMillan C 15
1 27 Detroit Brendan Smith D 14
2 158 Columbus Allen York G 11
3 31 Buffalo T.J. Brennan D 11
5 141 Pittsburgh Jake Muzzin D 11
6 62 NY Islanders Mark Katic D 11
1 15 Edmonton Alex Plante D 10
2 167 Tampa Bay Johan Harju L 10
6 41 Philadelphia Kevin Marshall D 10
3 78 Pittsburgh Robert Bortuzzo D 6
1 96 St. Louis Cade Fairchild D 5
3 21 Edmonton Riley Nash C 5
4 88 Detroit Joakim Andersson C 5
7 205 Atlanta Paul Postma D 4
2 70 Calgary John Negrin D 3
3 45 Colorado Colby Cohen D 3
2 56 Chicago Akim Aliu R 2
6 161 Philadelphia Patrick Maroon L 2
3 81 Nashville Ryan Thang R 1
3 127 Edmonton Milan Kytnar C 1
4 112 Dallas Colton Sceviour R 1
5 83 San Jose Timo Pielmeier G 1

Some bullet points about things that immediately catch my eye.

  • There were 211 players drafted in 2007. Only 82 (39%) have ever played a game in the NHL.
  • Of these 82, only 25 are defenceman.
  • 12 first rounders and 24 second rounders have yet to play half a season (41 games) in the show.
  • 20 goalies selected. Only 2 have appeared in an NHL game. Allen York who was pressed into desperation service in Columbus last year and Timo Pielmeier who played 2 periods of NHL hockey and got lit up for 5 goals. Not a great draft year for goalies.
  • The one game Milan Kytnar played in the NHL will look great when he shows off his HockeyDB to his grandchildren.

With a little excel magic I simply gave each player taken in the 2007 draft a career GVT number. The player with the highest GVT is the player who has been the most valuable since his draft day. This is why you see Sam Gagner, who started in the league at 18, having a larger number than PK Subban, who spent two years in junior and a year in the AHL before joining getting a full time roster spot.

First let’s take a look at how the players shake out by career GVT.

Round Num. Drafted By Player Pos Total GVT
1 1 Chicago Patrick Kane R 79.70
1 129 Dallas Jamie Benn L 34.40
2 9 San Jose Logan Couture C 33.10
1 26 St. Louis David Perron C 32.90
1 6 Edmonton Sam Gagner C 26.40
1 61 Los Angeles Wayne Simmonds R 25.60
5 14 Colorado Kevin Shattenkirk D 24.20
1 7 Columbus Jakub Voracek R 24.10
1 11 Carolina Brandon Sutter C 22.50
1 43 Montreal P.K. Subban D 18.80
7 12 Montreal Ryan McDonagh D 18.70
1 2 Philadelphia James Van Riemsdyk L 18.40
2 194 Toronto Carl Gunnarsson D 14.60
1 22 Montreal Max Pacioretty L 14.40
2 5 Washington Karl Alzner D 12.70
1 55 Colorado T.J. Galiardi W 10.80
2 168 NY Rangers Carl Hagelin L 9.60
1 117 New Jersey Matt Halischuk R 9.30
1 3 Phoenix Kyle Turris C 8.00
1 95 Los Angeles Alec Martinez D 7.80
1 13 St. Louis Lars Eller F 6.90
4 171 Pittsburgh Dustin Jeffrey C 5.20
1 201 San Jose Justin Braun D 4.70
4 18 St. Louis Ian Cole D 4.60
3 24 Calgary Mikael Backlund C 4.50
2 73 Montreal Yannick Weber D 4.40
7 79 New Jersey Nick Palmieri R 3.30
2 93 Anaheim Steven Kampfer D 3.20
3 71 Florida Evgeny Dadonov R 2.90
6 58 Nashville Nick Spaling C 2.80
4 23 Nashville Jonathon Blum D 2.80
2 67 Atlanta Spencer Machacek R 2.50
4 27 Detroit Brendan Smith D 2.50
3 158 Columbus Allen York G 2.00
6 40 Florida Michal Repik R 1.90
4 97 Edmonton Linus Omark W 1.90
6 47 Tampa Bay Dana Tyrell C 1.70
4 72 Carolina Drayson Bowman L 1.50
4 109 Los Angeles Dwight King C 1.40
1 56 Chicago Akim Aliu R 1.40
3 10 Florida Keaton Ellerby D 1.30
1 179 Buffalo Paul Byron C 1.20
2 200 Minnesota Carson McMillan C 1.10
2 173 San Jose Nick Bonino C 1.10
7 99 Toronto Matt Frattin R 1.00
4 89 Buffalo Corey Tropp R 0.90
1 52 Los Angeles Oscar Moller C 0.90
3 94 Columbus Maksim Mayorov L 0.60
4 29 Ottawa Jim O'Brien C 0.50
6 110 Minnesota Justin Falk D 0.50
3 203 San Jose Frazer McLaren L 0.50
3 111 Pittsburgh Luca Caputi L 0.40
5 63 Anaheim Maxime Macenauer C 0.40
5 15 Edmonton Alex Plante D 0.40
4 8 Boston Zach Hamill C 0.40
6 32 Phoenix Brett MacLean L 0.30
1 167 Tampa Bay Johan Harju L 0.3
2 78 Pittsburgh Robert Bortuzzo D 0.30
7 44 St. Louis Aaron Palushaj R 0.20
1 31 Buffalo T.J. Brennan D 0.20
2 96 St. Louis Cade Fairchild D 0.10
3 21 Edmonton Riley Nash C 0.00
5 205 Atlanta Paul Postma D 0.00
6 161 Philadelphia Patrick Maroon L 0.00
1 81 Nashville Ryan Thang R 0.00
2 127 Edmonton Milan Kytnar C 0.00
6 141 Pittsburgh Jake Muzzin D -0.1
3 88 Detroit Joakim Andersson C -0.10
1 70 Calgary John Negrin D -0.10
3 152 Philadelphia Jon Kalinski L -0.20
4 112 Dallas Colton Sceviour R -0.2
7 45 Colorado Colby Cohen D -0.3
2 116 Calgary Keith Aulie D -0.30
3 41 Philadelphia Kevin Marshall D -0.40
2 144 Nashville Andreas Thuresson R -0.80
6 140 Minnesota Cody Almond C -1.20
3 62 NY Islanders Mark Katic D -1.3
3 16 Minnesota Colton Gillies L -2.00
4 42 Anaheim Eric Tangradi L -2.30
5 83 San Jose Timo Pielmeier G -3.1

  • As expected, the first overall pick Patrick Kane is killing this. He is clearly been the best player in this draft up to this point, as he should be.
  • Jamie Benn. What a great pick by the Stars! Pretty rare you see a 5th rounder at the top of the list in a redraft
  • This is not news to anyone, but defenceman take longer to develop. Only 2 of the top 10 in career GVT are defenceman. Shattenkirk at 7 and Subban at 10.
  • Gagner shows really well here at 5. This is largely due to him playing in the NHL right away. I don't know that even the most ardent Sammy fans would make the argument that he is a more valuable player than some of the defencemen lower than him on this list. However, he shouldn't be punished for being able to compete against the best in the world at 18 either.

Lets take a look at this by team and see how they perform

Team Total GVT
Chicago Total 81.1
Montreal Total 56.3
St. Louis Total 44.7
San Jose Total 39.40
Colorado Total 35
Los Angeles Total 35.7
Dallas Total 34.4
Edmonton Total 28.70
Columbus Total 26.7
Carolina Total 24
Philadelphia Total 18
Toronto Total 15.6
Washington Total 12.7
New Jersey Total 12.6
NY Rangers Total 9.6
Phoenix Total 8.3
Florida Total 6.1
Nashville Total 5.6
Pittsburgh Total 5.5
Calgary Total 4.20
Atlanta Total 2.5
Detroit Total 2.4
Buffalo Total 2.3
Tampa Bay Total 1.7
Anaheim Total 1.30
Ottawa Total 0.5
Boston Total 0.4
NY Islanders Total 0
Vancouver Total 0
Minnesota Total -1.60

This exercise really got me thinking about how hit and miss draft picks are. There is some debate going around right now about trading Gagner for a top 10 pick. The risk that you have to factor in when considering the value of a draft pick is really underrated in my opinion. Was 2007 a particularly bad year? I don't know, but I will do some more excel work and get back to you.

In This FanPost

Topics
Teams
Players
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker