Sam Gagner's Historical Comparables, From Pit Martin to Stephen Weiss

Yesterday I asked readers to develop a comparables list for Sam Gagner:

Below is a list of centers (some later switched to wing) who plied their trade in the NHL from 1955 onwards:

Aaron Broten, Adam Creighton, Alan Haworth, Bengt-Ake Gustafsson, Bernie Nicholls, Bob Pulford, Bobby Carpenter, Brian Bellows, Brian Bradley, Butch Goring, Dale Hunter, Dan Quinn, Darren Turcotte, Dave Andreychuk, Dave Christian, Dave Keon, David Legwand, Daymond Langkow, Derek Plante, Don Lever, Don McKenney, Doug Gilmour, Garry Unger, Greg Malone, Guy Chouinard, Ivan Boldirev, Jim Fox, Jimmy Carson, John Chabot, John Tucker, Jozef Stumpel, Marc Savard, Martin Straka, Mel Bridgman, Mike Ricci, Murray Oliver, Nelson Emerson, Patrick Marleau, Paul Gardner, Pelle Eklund, Peter McNab, Peter Zezel, Pit Martin, Ralph Backstrom, Ray Ferraro, Robert Reichel, Ron Duguay, Ron Flockhart, Russ Courtnall, Scott Gomez, Stephen Weiss, Steve Kasper, Thomas Steen, Tim Young, Vincent Damphousse

In the comments, choose your best three Gagner comparables from the list.

I created the list by normalizing scoring in the league from 1955-2011 to level-set production by year. Jonathan Willis has done this previously and it's an outstanding idea. I set per game scoring to three goals per team per game, then calculated all numbers on a per 82 game basis. Performing these two adjustments to Sam Gagner's numbers over his first 366 games places his normalized per 82 game total to ~53 points.

The players in the list above all came within 20% of Gagner's adjusted number either prior to turning 23 (Gagner turns 23 in August) or during the following three years.

For now, I've abandoned the idea of adjusting for team production, but may re-visit this later.

The numbers in the list below show that same breakout: normalized production prior to the 23 year old season and the following three seasons.
Player < 23 23-25
Paul Gardner 70.54 61.78
Scott Gomez 69.94 73.73
Jimmy Carson 68.48 51.54
Tim Young 67.30 59.41
Guy Chouinard 66.55 83.21
Dave Keon 66.24 68.38
Don McKenney 63.23 76.71
Robert Reichel 63.13 61.95
Dan Quinn 61.73 62.32
Dave Andreychuk 61.62 63.06
Darren Turcotte 61.22 49.50
Marc Savard 60.46 66.62
Bernie Nicholls 60.39 74.05
Murray Oliver 60.23 59.42
Pelle Eklund 58.42 49.27
Garry Unger 58.29 68.32
Peter McNab 58.27 68.80
Brian Bellows 57.59 69.03
Dave Christian 57.49 56.22
Ron Flockhart 56.79 41.20
Peter Zezel 56.11 59.88
Bobby Carpenter 55.56 41.61
John Tucker 55.16 49.71
Butch Goring 52.95 68.36
Sam Gagner 52.65
Greg Malone 52.34 50.74
Mike Ricci 52.27 46.25
Dale Hunter 51.88 58.39
Mel Bridgman 50.86 47.13
Ray Ferraro 50.84 52.27
Bengt-Ake Gustafsson 50.68 60.37
Jim Fox 49.69 57.30
Patrick Marleau 49.21 66.30
David Legwand 48.69 50.99
Ron Duguay 48.68 50.73
John Chabot 48.61 39.37
Vincent Damphousse 48.41 74.27
Ivan Boldirev 48.39 53.68
Don Lever 48.34 53.39
Russ Courtnall 47.29 51.56
Brian Bradley 46.92 44.76
Steve Kasper 44.97 35.43
Ralph Backstrom 44.75 53.29
Aaron Broten 44.58 37.85
Doug Gilmour 43.99 81.57
Alan Haworth 43.98 50.09
Thomas Steen 43.50 56.71
Martin Straka 41.26 46.79
Stephen Weiss 40.54 56.77
Pat Verbeek 40.14 61.42
Adam Creighton 39.55 51.34
Bob Pulford 38.23 55.64
Pit Martin 36.11 54.92
Daymond Langkow 33.19 65.11
Jozef Stumpel 31.66 77.80
Nelson Emerson
56.60
Derek Plante
50.48

Do the normalized numbers change your mind about Gagner's comparables? Do the wide variety of results these comparables produced in their next three seasons change your mind about the possibilities for Gagner over the next three seasons?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Join The Copper & Blue

You must be a member of The Copper & Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at The Copper & Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker