First up I broke down his points by 5v5 versus PP.
|Gms||5v5 G||5v5 A1||5v5 A2||PPG||PPA1||PPA2|
I don't know how much you can glean from this, but you'll note the complete lack of secondary assists at 5 on 5 for Murray this year. In fact, he didn't pick up his 1st even strength assist of the season until January 24th. Unless you're a goon, that would almost certainly be because of poor luck. A more normal performance there would make his offensive numbers look a bit closer to what you would want from a top 5 pick.
Next, I looked at the numbers at 5 on 5 in comparison to the team. Murray's individual +/- is the "5v5 +/-" column. The "Team +/-" column refers to the entire team numbers, including Murray, but only in the games he played. The "no Murray" row refers to the team +/- when Murray was injured or playing internationally.
|Gms||5v5 +/-||Team +/-|
|09/10 no Murray||20||+9|
|10/11 no Murray||2||-5|
|11/12 no Murray||26||-30|
|11/12 1st Half||21||-10||-22|
|11-12 2nd Half||25||+14||+2|
Clearly, at the junior level, Murray is an impact player. The difference between him and the rest of team is large, especially his last 2 seasons. And this is with him seeming to play against the other team's top lines. And the team as a whole has a drastic drop in play when he is out of the lineup.
The other thing to note is how bipolar Murray's season was this year. He was quite poor for the first half of the season. This does include the games subsequent to his return from an ankle injury but he was struggling even prior to that. I’m not sure what the issues were, but they seemed to resolve at a specific point in the season and his +/- was excellent again after that.
I'm still in favor of BPA but feel more comfortable now with the idea of targeting Murrray.