Edmonton Oilers' Zonestart Adjusted Scoring Chances

VANCOUVER CANADA - DECEMBER 26: Magnus Paajarvi #91 of the Edmonton Oilers fires a shot on goalie Cory Schneider #35 of the Vancouver Canucks during the third period in NHL action on December 26 2010 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver BC Canada. (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images)

The underlying theme to the 2011-12 season was Tom Renney's skilled protection of the young Oilers' forwards (minus Magnus Paajarvi) and how the young forwards benefited from that protection. The raw scoring chances showed the three young forwards were the most productive, but how do those numbers break down when considering that protection?

Adjusting the scoring chance data for starting position puts the Oilers on an equal footing with each other (without consideration for qualcomp) and allows us to make direct comparisons of their results.

Thanks to the incomparable George Ays, we can do that.

George took the data from his own scoring chance project for the Rangers, plus the data from Neil Greenberg's data for the Capitals and modeled scoring chances as JLikens modeled Corsi. While the sample size is extremely small and subject to enormous variance, George should be able to zero in on a more targeted number as the Scoring Chance Project wraps up 2011-12. The results of of George's model shows "...an offensive zone start would be worth 0.425 scoring chances."

All data compiled and published by Dennis King and mc79hockey.com.

The Forwards

# Player ADH C% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
91 Magnus Paajarvi 0.520 3.261 3.008 0.253
83 Ales Hemsky 0.507 4.347 4.221 0.127
4 Taylor Hall 0.506 4.679 4.573 0.106
10 Shawn Horcoff 0.495 3.972 4.060 -0.088
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.489 4.362 4.556 -0.194
55 Ben Eager 0.468 2.916 3.317 -0.402
94 Ryan Smyth 0.474 3.678 4.087 -0.409
20 Eric Belanger 0.469 3.333 3.769 -0.436
14 Jordan Eberle 0.471 4.183 4.691 -0.508
28 Ryan Jones 0.467 3.619 4.131 -0.513
89 Sam Gagner 0.457 3.566 4.230 -0.663
37 Lennart Petrell 0.427 2.363 3.166 -0.803
57 Anton Lander 0.424 2.394 3.247 -0.853
  • Magnus Paajarvi is a surprise leader here, but he didn't face the toughest competition. Then again, he was centered by the struggling Eric Belanger quite often.
  • Ales Hemsky has been an elite ES player for half of a decade now, but it's unlikely he'll be recognized as such any time soon.
  • Taylor Hall again shows well in the chances department, not so much for his chance prevention, but for his ability to create.
  • Shawn Horcoff ended up six chances in the red, playing against toughs all season long.

The Defense

# Player ADH C% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
77 Tom Gilbert 0.511 3.984 3.806 0.178
25 Andy Sutton 0.504 3.949 3.884 0.064
5 Ladislav Smid 0.487 3.704 3.902 -0.197
58 Jeff Petry 0.481 3.791 4.089 -0.297
6 Ryan Whitney 0.471 3.688 4.150 -0.462
44 Corey Potter 0.434 3.071 4.003 -0.933
24 Theo Peckham 0.404 3.171 4.682 -1.511
  • There's that Gilbert guy again. And he did it against the best competition.
  • Sutton did well against 3rd-level competition, but probably not $2.125 million well.
  • Smid was above water with Gilbert, but fell off without him.
  • Corey Potter's hot start couldn't keep him above water.

The Irregulars

# Player ADJ C% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
48 Alex Plante 0.678 5.827 2.761 3.065
15 Nick Schultz 0.519 4.234 3.925 0.308
64 Milan Kytnar 0.500 2.717 2.717 0.000
51 Phil Cornet 0.488 4.216 4.432 -0.216
33 Colten Teubert 0.473 3.853 4.286 -0.433
13 Cam Barker 0.453 3.635 4.383 -0.748
12 Josh Green 0.406 2.355 3.448 -1.093
54 Chris VandeVelde 0.293 0.995 2.401 -1.406
56 Teemu Hartikainen 0.415 3.466 4.889 -1.423
16 Darcy Hordichuk 0.320 1.358 2.892 -1.534
23 Linus Omark 0.383 3.386 5.443 -2.058
19 Bryan Rodney 0.298 2.315 5.457 -3.141
41 Taylor Chorney 0.278 2.006 5.208 -3.203
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