Oilers Scoring Chances By Game State

Another chance against

Trailing teams outshoot their opponents, while leading teams get outshot. The effect becomes more extreme the closer we get to the end of the game and as the lead gets larger. The most extreme situation is the empty-net end game, which significantly distorts overall results.

--Desjardins on Score Effects

Approximately 70% of the game is spent at even strength, and of that, approximately 75% of that time is spent tied, up by a goal or down by a goal. In raw minutes, even strength close minutes account for over 1000 more minutes than special teams combined.

In the end, half of the game is spent at even strength within a goal or tied with an opponent - it's the most significant part of hockey.

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; C% = scoring chance percentage


TCF TCA C%
ES Close 692 751 0.480
Tied 342 386 0.470
Up 1 138 167 0.452
Down 1 212 198 0.517
Up 2 or more 130 145 0.473
Down 2 or more 139 163 0.460

And the Oilers aren't good at the most significant part of hockey.

The Oilers weren't close to being a competitive team unless they're down by 1 goal, and .517 isn't particularly strong when down by 1. Worse, however, was their terrible chance percentage when down by 2 or more. Columbus, the last place team in the league, finished with a .524 chance percentage down by 2 or more.

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