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We'll Hang Ourselves Tomorrow. Unless Godot Comes.

This game was off to a poor start before it began. After all, when you look at the defense pairings and see that Corey Potter and Cam Barker will be lining up together, you know that there will be some truly cringe-worthy plays. And they didn't disappoint. On their first shift of the game, Cam Barker made a truly cringe-worthy pinch, and it was quickly 1-0 Blues. The rest of the first period was played at a breakneck pace, but neither team was able to turn all of that energy into scoring chances all that effectively.

The second period began in similar fashion in that Barker and Potter were again on the ice, and the Blues quickly scored, although that goal was by no means on them. No, it was a softie from Dubnyk, which was quickly followed by an atrocious change that led to a third St. Louis goal, and led to Tom Renney pulling out every trick he could think of to take the Mandate of Heaven for the Oilers.

He called a time-out. He changed the goalie. He even shuffled the lines.

And it worked. The Oilers stiffened their resolve and had Corey Potter score his first goal in twenty games to get themselves back to within two. Ryan Smyth then tempted the gods by making a terrible hit on Roman Polak that gave the Blues a five-minute power play and relegated Smyth to the dressing room. But the Oilers were still clearly favored by the heavens, and killed the entire penalty without allowing a single shot, and gave the penalty kill a solid rubber stamp in the form of a Lennart Petrell hip check. Shortly thereafter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored to pull the Oilers to within one as they headed for the intermission.

Sadly, the Mandate of Heaven doesn't like long breaks. Or Cam Barker. And when Barker took a needless slashing penalty to start the third, the Blues promptly scored on back-up Yann Danis and then added another on a Chris Stewart penalty shot to go up 5-2, which is how the game ended.

But don't worry. All we need to do is wait. The rebuild will surely come. And then we'll be saved.

Star-divide

Notes from the First Period:

  • Cam Barker and Corey Potter should not under any condition be considered a viable defense pairing in the NHL. Intent to prove this point, the two of them managed to allow a goal in the first two minutes of the game. Cam Barker made a horrendous pinch at the offensive blue-line, which led to a two-on-one against. Corey Potter was defending that two-on-one. And you know what that means.
  • Still, Potter is a much better defenseman that Barker. With about 15:15 to go in the period, Potter found himself in a similar situation at the offensive blue-line. He hadn't made a brutal pinch, but he did get stripped of the puck by Vladimir Sobotka. Fortunately, Potter had the wherewithal to realize that he was in trouble and managed to get back into the play.
  • There were some good things in the period. I thought that Ales Hemsky and Taylor Hall played very well for most of the first frame. But... every time I put the trainwreck of Potter and Barker out of my mind, they made sure to finagle their way back in. With about 10:30 to go, I was happily watching Hall and Hemsky battle for the puck near the offensive blueline with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins providing support. But for some reason Potter skated past Nugent-Hopkins. When the puck bounced past the pack, this allowed B.J. Crombeen to pick up the puck with speed. Of course, Barker was still back, and he's faster than Tom Gilbert, so naturally he cut Crombeen off... nope. No, he didn't. It was a semi-breakaway for Crombeen. At least Dubnyk made the save.

Notes from the Second Period:

  • Of course, Dubnyk wasn't exactly perfect. There are times (like the Blues' third goal) when you wonder how the heck David Staples dishes out the errors. There are other times (like the Blues' second goal) when it's so obvious that everyone would agree. Scott Nichol with an unscreened slapper from outside the scoring chance area? Yeah... that's on Dubnyk.
  • One of the really fun things about watching the Oilers is the number of players with really excellent vision. Gagner tried a pass to Hall on the power play with about 9:40 to go that didn't get there, but was a wonderful idea. Ales Hemsky got one in to Nugent-Hopkins in the slot with about 8:20 that he rang off the post. Then Jordan Eberle found Corey Potter pinching down into the slot with about 0:30 to go. Three different players, all with really great vision. It's just plain fun to watch.
  • The Oilers second goal was another example of this (as well as its opposite). Nick Schultz started the play by reminding us what we'll miss about Tom Gilbert when he missed an uncontested break-out pass for Nugent-Hopkins. It would have gone for icing except that Ales Hemsky went hard into the offensive zone to tie up Alex Pietrangelo so that he couldn't touch the puck. Taylor Hall followed, picked up the puck by the hashmarks, and then fooled Halak by making a quick feed to Nugent-Hopkins on the other side of the net instead of shooting. Halak had already dropped into his butterfly so Nugent-Hopkins had the whole net, and he didn't miss.

Notes from the Third Period:

  • Ryan Whitney is a really interesting player right now. Watching Patrik Berglund skate around him with 18:20 to go in the period, it was as clear as ever that Whitney is still struggling big-time with his mobility. Later in the period, he made a slap pass to Taylor Hall that showed he's still got the head and hands to play the game at an elite level. It'll be interesting to see how Whitney adjusts to being much slower than he used to be if that ends up being a long-term thing.
  • With 12:45 to go, I had another chance to miss Tom Gilbert when Taylor Hall hit Nick Schultz at the side of the net with an absolutely awesome pass for an open net. But he bobbled it. But that said, Schultz did come as advertised in the defensive zone. Schultz played a safe game back there whenever he had the puck and generally defended territory well.
  • Unfortunately, that sequence ended with Ales Hemsky skating into Taylor Hall's lane, which resulted in Hall losing the puck to Chris Stewart who went in on a break-away. Hall managed to tie him up with a hook, but Stewart was awarded a penalty shot and promptly scored. That was pretty much the game, which is really too bad because both Hemsky and Hall had been mostly excellent.

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There are times (like the Blues’ third goal) when you wonder how the heck David Staples dishes out the errors.

He hammers the dumbfucks making the horrible line change. In this case Schultz, Gagner, Eberle, Smyth all buggered off for the long change at 7:29 after a ~50 second shift and left Ryan Whitney out there to clean up after a shift of 1:56. Meanwhile 5-4-93-83 all got hammered with an undeserved -1 after being collectively hung out to dry. The goal was at 7:34 so you know how much chance they had to get in the play from the far bench.

Oilers are the worst team at line changes in the history of “organized” hockey. I am so goddamn sick of seeing them piss away free goals on a weekly basis that I’m ready to see somebody made an example of. Player or coach, but somebody.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 12:47 AM MST reply actions  

Has he stopped with the primary v. secondary thing? For some reason I thought he was running with a system that required someone get a “primary” error on every goal.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 12:59 AM MST up reply actions  

No he hasn’t stopped. That’s still a component of it, try to identify the one guy most responsible for the goal against. Needless to say it is not always cut and dried.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 9:40 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, it seemed to me that that would be the tricky part on that goal.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 9:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Who buggered off?

It wasn’t the fact that the forwards changed, they actually made a pretty good change. The problem was the Oilers defenceman who moved the puck up the wall and then coasted to the bench. I have a hard time blaiming the forwards on that, they were on the ice and would have been fine if a second defenceman was back.

The part that killed the Oilers was the lack of a second defenceman.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Mar 1, 2012 10:01 AM MST up reply actions  

Oilers are the worst team at line changes in the history of "organized" hockey. I am so goddamn sick of seeing them piss away free goals on a weekly basis that I’m ready to see somebody made an example of. Player or coach, but somebody.

Couldn’t agree more

by SoCalOil on Mar 1, 2012 10:51 AM MST up reply actions  

This has been a problem going back to MacTavish, if I remember right. I think there was a pretty bad line change a few years ago where every skater came off at the same time and Roli got hung out to dry.

by despisethesun on Mar 1, 2012 11:17 AM MST up reply actions  

/scans recent draft history
Why the hell do you want to talk about Brian Lee?

by Passive Voice on Mar 1, 2012 1:32 PM MST up reply actions  

ouch.

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Mar 1, 2012 1:46 PM MST up reply actions  

How they can play Barker over Sutton is a mystery to me. It only makes sense if the coach has been told he has to play Barker to see if he can improve.

Sadly, there is little hope of that happening and it pretty mucg guarantees 29th, Montreal be damned…

by gcw_rocks on Mar 1, 2012 8:00 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

if he had the chance before the game on a contract extension, he should not have them after the game more. The hope dies last.

bring Sheldon Souray back!

by Screaming69 on Mar 2, 2012 12:44 AM MST up reply actions  

There are times (like the Blues’ third goal) when you wonder how the heck David Staples dishes out the errors.

Staples errors project is as subjective and biased as his views on the new arena are. That’s all you really need to know.

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 9:11 AM MST reply actions  

You should try it yourself for a few games, and then vet your results against his. For one thing you’ll start to appreciate how much work goes into it. For another, you’ll find yourself in agreement a hell of a lot more often than disagreement.

Are there judgement calls and grey areas? Yes. Is the system perfect? Far from it. Do the results tell us things about the team we didn’t know already? As one who has vetted many games, in my opinion yes they do. I find plenty of value in both errors on goals against, and extended scoring on goals for.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 9:46 AM MST up reply actions  

I don’t think it doesn’t take alot of time and effort, far from it. And I don’t argue that I would be in agreement with who gets the errors for the most part. I probably should have left out the biased part of my comment though.

My issue with it is that the results are purely result-based, ie. You are only recording if the puck actually goes in the net. There seems to be a large amount of luck involved in this metric.

Take Nichol’s goal. 9.5 times out of 10, that’s an easy save an no errors are recorded, but this one terrible fluke play by Dubnyk allows a goal and now you are recording it. It’s purely subjective on the results, and not performance-based.

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 10:13 AM MST up reply actions  

My issue with it is that the results are purely result-based, ie. You are only recording if the puck actually goes in the net. There seems to be a large amount of luck involved in this metric.

This is true of goals too. And to David’s credit, he does track this stuff for scoring chances as well as goals (which does strike me as being a lot of work). As for the Dubnyk example, I’m pretty sure the only guy who’s getting an error on that one is Dubnyk.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 10:18 AM MST up reply actions  

His point is that a lot of time players will get errors based on the on ice sv%.
It is somewhat of a pure luck whether a goalie will save a certain shot or not. Many times goalies bail out their defensemen with a routine or a spectacular save. Hence some years a player(mostly a d-man) might look worse off by that metric than his peers or his own performance in another year with a better on ice sv%.

I think the exercise is more fruitful when it is done with scoring chance data. As his definition of a scoring chance is more likely to remain constant year to year. Hence a player improving his scoring chance differential might actually be due to improved play rather than a shift in on ice sv%.

by gangplank on Mar 1, 2012 10:55 AM MST up reply actions  

All of this stuff is true of goal-scoring. A player will get more or less goals based on shooting percentage, which has a lot of variance because, as you say, a lot of luck is involved in whether or not a goalie makes a save on any particular shot. That doesn’t make goals a useless measurement. Similarly, despite some rather large flaws, errors are not useless either.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 11:50 AM MST up reply actions  

Like goal scoring, plus-minus and other goal-based stats, larger sample sizes start to winnow things out. In the short run a guy like Lennart Petrell can get the puck over the blueline twice and get a goal and an assist if the goalie is Pavelec having a bad game. But over the course of a whole season, his point totals tell a tale.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 11:58 AM MST up reply actions  

By your description you are still looking at a result-based metric and not a performance based one, and that’s where I have a problem with it.

Not that it isn’t useful or useless, but to my understanding, it has some large flaws to it.

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 1:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Like goal scoring, plus-minus and other goal-based stats

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 4, 2012 11:53 AM MST up reply actions  

Except for the fact that Barker went fishing North of the blueline and allowed a 2 on 1 in the first place.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Mar 1, 2012 11:10 AM MST up reply actions  

I don’t know… Barker sucks, but that should have been an easy save. If I were working on this project, goals that don’t count as scoring chances would always be exclusively on the goalie.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 11:47 AM MST up reply actions  

And that’s where I disagree.

Yes, Dubnyk should have made the save.

But I don’t think that was the only miscue on the play that should be looked at. If he doesn’t score there and instead skates the puck in and makes a cross-crease pass for a goal, the blame then gets shifted to Barker.

To me that doesn’t make sense. Barker was a culprit on the play that allowed the puck into the zone with that much space. Whatever happens from there is partly to do with how he played it.

That’s my biggest problem with the error because often times we ignore the several other breakdowns that lead to it, which were just as dangerous.

Ultimately, the puck entered the zone in the first place because Barker got caught chaisng outside of the zone. He has to bare some responsibility for what resulted because of it.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Mar 1, 2012 1:26 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree with DB on this. Barker tried to pinch on David Perron, who made a quick pass and left Barker in no-man’s land. This led to an odd-man rush with full speed going into the Oilers’ zone. That’s a great scoring chance. The puck should have been saved but the chance should not have happened in the first place. Two ill-timed pinches by Barker were instrumental in two Blues goals.

The guy just doesn’t think the game very well…he’s the anti-Lidstrom, if you will.

by gvblackhawk on Mar 2, 2012 12:26 AM MST up reply actions  

Cam Barker is too slow to ever pinch on anyone in the NHL.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Mar 2, 2012 5:50 AM MST up reply actions  

That’s my biggest problem with the error because often times we ignore the several other breakdowns that lead to it, which were just as dangerous.

The error assignments on the Nichol goal were Dubnyk (primary), Barker and Hall (secondaries).

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 4, 2012 11:59 AM MST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t count it as an error to the goal, but it was a massively stupid error and was only saved to be counting as a ‘scoring chance error’ because Nichol took the shot so early.

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 1:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Regarding Whitney,

I was at the game and during one of the TV timeouts Whitney was out on the ice waiting for the play to begin and was slowly skating around.

Now this is normal, except you could tell he was favoring on ankle and looking down at it and testing the strength of it.

He may not admit it, or the media are not asking anymore, but he is still thinking about it.

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 9:16 AM MST reply actions  

Thanks for the update Darren. That could be a few different things (new skate blade for example), but I agree that your interpretation is the most likely.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 9:44 AM MST up reply actions  

Whitney is clearly managing the bad wheel, and trying to nurse it through April 7. The “good” news is that he will have a full summer.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 9:49 AM MST up reply actions  

A full summer for what exactly? He’s had the surguries and unfortunately an ankle doesn’t have muscles in or around it that you can strengthen to improve mobiltity and strength like a knee does.

I mean, I hope he gets better but I don’t see it happening

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 10:15 AM MST up reply actions  

I don’t know if the problem is the scar tissue, or just a weak tendon but I believe he can still recover some strength and mobility. He won’t ever be the same, but he’s not old and has the best treatment available to him.

I kinda wish that he would shut it down for the season and focus on rehab though.

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Mar 1, 2012 1:56 PM MST up reply actions  

His best chance will be to change to a positional defender as opposed to a skating one. It can be done and guys like that can be effective. He seems to be adjusting his play to that rather well so far.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Mar 1, 2012 2:53 PM MST up reply actions  

He had more than a full summer last season.
He has constantly had issues with one foot or the other.
So I am not really convinced that this time it will be all good. I would rather see improvement and then bet on something.

by gangplank on Mar 1, 2012 11:00 AM MST up reply actions  

A full summer 16 months out from the surgery is different from one 4 months out. Hey, I’m no physiologist and I know fuckall about ankles other than I broke mine once and it hurt (sporadically) for five years. So maybe it’s just wishful thinking that Whitney will return stronger in September than he is in March.

The good news is that his hands are fine, and so is his head at least some of the time. That slap pass to Hall last night being the latest example of a legitimately creative play from the back end, something Oilers have sorely lacked this year.

My main concerns with Whitney are from a defensive perspective, which are pretty important given he’s a defenceman. But he’s better now than he was in November, for whatever that’s worth.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 12:03 PM MST up reply actions  

The good news is that the Oilers have played a substantial portion of the season with the four worst defensemen in the league (faux-Whitney, Peckham, Teubert, and of course, Barker). This means that the Oilers can improve dramatically just by replacing their terrible performance with average performance. There are also a number of averagish FA defensemen this year. We don’t have to go all crazy and hope for Suter or crafty and sign Garrison, we can settle and sign Zanon and we’d still see a massive improvement. It should be easy.

The bad news is that for the Oilers the easy and the obvious is not so easy and obvious.

by Captain Obvious II on Mar 1, 2012 10:01 AM MST reply actions  

I don’t hear you saying the opposite, but there are also important areas that the Oilers could see significant regression. The power play being one obvious example. Unlike previous seasons, this year isn’t an “everything has gone wrong” year.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Mar 1, 2012 10:21 AM MST up reply actions  

Nick Schultz started the play by reminding us what we’ll miss about Tom Gilbert when he missed an uncontested break-out pass for Nugent-Hopkins.

it’s his first game on a new team. I get that he isn’t billed as what we used to get from Gilbert but it’s his first game. If he does this next season, then I’m with you – I’ll miss Gilbert as well.

by SoCalOil on Mar 1, 2012 10:55 AM MST reply actions  

it doesnt matter. He wont suddenly become a different player than what he is now.
He is a veteran of 700+ games. had he been a youngster we cold have hoped to see a bit of change in his gameplay

by gangplank on Mar 1, 2012 11:02 AM MST up reply actions  

Having Tom Gilbert around didn’t make Cam Barker a less mistake proned idiot or make Dubnyk an NHL goalie…..like my mother said when our dog died: “Sparky’s gone…get over it”…Nick Shultz acquitted himself quite well for a first game and his point production will increase once he gets in the groove….the Scandella-Gilbert flub on LA’s second goal on Tuesday was the same lack of familiarity of new teammates…jmho.

by Otiepitotie on Mar 1, 2012 11:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Having Tom Gilbert around didn’t make Cam Barker a less mistake proned idiot or make Dubnyk an NHL goalie

Neither will Schultz…

the Scandella-Gilbert flub on LA’s second goal on Tuesday was the same lack of familiarity of new teammates

Schultz was the main culprit on the 3rd goal, he just got off the ice in time to not get a minus.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Mar 1, 2012 11:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Schultz did get the primary error according to Staples. FWIW, I agree. Schultz will fit right in with the Oilers with screw-ups like that.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 1, 2012 12:10 PM MST up reply actions  

So why was Sutton signed to a deal above the league minimum when he was a healthy scratch once again. So at least a healthy scratch in 3 games this year now (maybe more, I dont have stats, just sure of 3 times).

Renney is horrible for playing Barker over him, and Tambellini is horrible for signing him to such a ridiculous contract.

by George Roop on Mar 1, 2012 1:14 PM MST reply actions  

The team is surrounded by stupid.

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Mar 1, 2012 1:58 PM MST up reply actions  

I do like Sutton though and he is competent when paired with a puck mover or someone with greater ability, but yeah, too much money.

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Mar 1, 2012 1:59 PM MST up reply actions  

Did anyone else notice Schultz breaking to the bench in the 2nd period while the Oilers were deep in the the Blues’ zone?

I cannot recall this being a regular practice when the bench is so far away from the attacking zone, and it caused a break in puck pressure more than once.

by DarrenV on Mar 1, 2012 1:34 PM MST reply actions  

It’s funny because that was the first thing I thought of… what the hell does godot10 have to do with this?

Then education kicked in.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Mar 1, 2012 5:21 PM MST up reply actions  

me too lol
But education hasnt kicked in for me yet

by gangplank on Mar 1, 2012 6:47 PM MST up reply actions  

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