Big-Picture Questions to be Asked Before the Trade Deadline
by Alan Hull on Feb 10, 2012 10:00 AM MST
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With the release of Bob McKenzie's most recent draft rankings, and with less than three weeks remaining ahead of the trade deadline, it is time for the Oilers to start asking some big picture questions about how they intend to take the next step in their rebuilding process.
There is already a great deal of talk that the Oilers, likely to be a lottery team again, obviously need to upgrade their defence. This is not new information. What looking ahead to the draft will do is inevitably lead to people ask questions such as, "Who should the Oilers draft?" Or, if they end up picking in the top two as they currently sit, "Should they trade down to take a defenseman?". Host James Duthie asked as much of TSN Scout Craig Button last night, to which Button replied that he would consider trading down to take Matt Dumba if the Oilers find themselves with an opportunity to draft Nail Yakupov (or, presumably, also Mikhail Grigorenko).
Right now, and over the next 20 days, I think the Oilers need to start making some tough decisions on exactly how they plan to address the notion of upgrading their blueline, and doing so in a manner that fits into the timeline of the rest of their rebuild. Whether or not Steve Tambellini is the right man for this job (he's not) is a discussion for another column.
The issue that the Oilers are faced with for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft is that defensemen tend to develop at a slower rate than forwards, especially elite-level forward prospects like Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Sure, every now and then there is a Drew Doughty, but he is the exception, not the rule. Recent examples like Victor Hedman, Alex Pietrangelo and Luke Schenn are more demonstrative of a reasonable development curve for even the most elite defensive prospects. While they may be able to contribute at the NHL level at an early age, it is likely to be years before they realize their potential to become impact players. And that's assuming you don't end up with the next Cam Barker. What this creates is a gap in the development curve where your core forwards are good enough to compete for the playoffs, but the back-end is lagging behind.
This issue is something the Oilers are already dealing with when it comes to their current crop of prospects, which includes a number of well-regarded defensemen. Oscar Klefbom, David Musil, Martin Marincin and others all display significant long-term potential, but for the Oilers and their fans, who have already shown incredible patience, their arrival as significant NHL players remains likely too far away and well behind the development curve of Hall, RNH, Eberle and the other Oiler forwards who appear on the verge of being able to compete with some of the better teams in the league.
This leads us to the decisions to be made in the next 20 days. The Oilers have a significant number of assets that are attractive to teams looking to improve right now. The most commonly discussed pieces include Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner as well as Andy Sutton, Ryan Smyth and even Nikolai Khabibulin. Should the Oilers unload non-core pieces to acquire more draft picks and prospects, should they consider trading down at the draft or do they take a more bold approach and hope the risk/reward turns out in their favour?
Let's look at some of the options...
Stand firm and draft another elite asset with a 2012 lottery pick - In theory, you can't argue with this logic. Acquiring elite talent is never a bad thing. Still, adding a Yakupov or a Grigorenko doesn't address your blueline concerns and a player like Ryan Murray or Dumba will simply join the current group of prospects who need to develop their skills and their physical frame before they can become high end NHL players.
Should the opportunity present itself, trade down at the draft to take a defenseman and acquire extra assets - Again, not a terrible theory, but let's take a look at what the expected return might be. In the last 5 NHL Entry drafts, there have only been three occasions where teams dealt a pick inside the top 10 on the draft floor in order to trade down and select a few picks later. Here are the deals:
1. 2008 - Toronto receives the 5th overall pick (Luke Schenn) from the NY Islanders for the 7th pick, 68th pick and a 2009 2nd round pick.
2. 2008 - Nashville receives the 7th overall pick (Colin Wilson) from the NY Islanders for the 9th pick and 40th pick.
3. 2007 - San Jose receives the 9th overall pick (Logan Couture) from the St. Louis Blues for the 13th pick and 44th pick (both picks previously acquired in a deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs).
As you can see, when a team does trade down at the draft, the return is typically something in the range of an additional pick or two in lower rounds of that draft or a future draft. Again, nothing that will be an immediate solution to the Oilers sub-par blueline. While the Oilers pick may end up being higher than any of the three examples, it is still unlikely to provide a significantly greater return. Of course, there are other ways to trade draft picks, where teams don't trade down but simply trade away the asset for an immediate return and accept not drafting in the first round, or acquiring a later pick in the round in a separate transaction. Let's consider that option...
Trade the pick outright for more NHL-ready assets - This would certainly be a bold option, but it comes with an immense risk. There aren't many credible examples where this has happened before. Everyone remembers the infamous Phil Kessel trade that cost the Maple Leafs the chance to draft Tyler Seguin, but the Leafs made that deal before knowing where they would be drafting. There isn't a lot of precedent for a team simply trading away a lottery pick. The only case I can find in the last 15 years is Brian Burke trading Bryan McCabe and a 2000 1st round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for their 4th overall selection in 1999 as part of his legendary sequence of trades to acquire the Sedin brothers. An interesting scenario to be sure, but I imagine there is a good reason that this doesn't happen very often. Certainly worth considering depending on the return, but this decision can wait until the summer and does not impact the Oilers' ability to take steps to improve beginning with the Feb. 27 trade deadline.
Another potential solution, which may be equally as bold, but could provide a greater and more immediate return, would be to pull the trigger on dealing some of your current assets to acquire the talent that can help you today and in the future. For example, if dealing Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner could each give you a young NHL defenseman with upside, say, Jonathan Blum from Nashville and Nick Leddy from Chicago for the sake of argument, that would instantly improve the line-up now and for the future. The Oilers would have two young, high-end potential NHL defensemen to add to their blueline, both of whom could step in and play with this team for the remainder of the season and beyond.
These players are just examples based on names that have been floated as possible trade destinations for Hemsky and Gagner. Still, regardless of the individual player, a top six that included Gilbert, Smid, Whitney (when healthy), the two young players acquired for Gagner and Hemsky, plus Jeff Petry would be a significant step up from the current group. Best of all, assuming that the players acquired fall into the same age group as Blum and Leddy, their development curve would much more closely resemble that of the Oilers' forwards and would put them in a position to be ready to compete as a group at a much earlier date.
Of course, trading Hemsky and Gagner would create new holes in the forward group, but the solutions there appear easier to fill internally. For starters, you may be able to replace Gagner as soon as the June Entry Draft, where the Oilers are currently in position to have a shot at Mikhail Grigorenko. At 6'3", Grigorenko would address some of the Oilers' size issues up front and replace Gagner as the team's long-term #2 centre behind Nugent-Hopkins. As for Hemsky, the prospects in the Oilers system who are most ready to make the jump to the NHL level are all wingers. Magnus Paajarvi was just recalled from OKC, but Teemu Hartikainen and Linus Omark are both still available and possess some NHL experience. Additionally, there is the possibility of acquiring a veteran presence in the top six through free agency if necessary in the off-season.
Do Something!
There are numerous options facing the management team of the Edmonton Oilers over the next few weeks, and while Steve Tambellini wouldn't be my personal choice to be the man to make these decisions, he will be the one tasked to do just that. With an asset (Gagner) whose value will never be higher, and another (Hemsky) whose value drops with each passing day as his contract nears expiration, Tambellini will either make decisive moves with some of his moveable pieces to acquire others that fit better into the team he is trying to build, or he will continue staring at the square peg in his hand, waiting for the day it magically fits into a round hole. Whatever the team decides, their course of action will become clear in the next few weeks.
Man, do I hate being an Oiler fan...
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this FanPost are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or position of the staff.
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Reading posts like this remind me why I love the SB Nation setup here, allowing anyone to write their own piece. Well done Oilfan64, i really enjoyed this. Unfortunately your final sentence rings all too true.
Insert Witty Comment Here
by VanillaAcid on Feb 9, 2012 11:14 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Great article. IMO, the most optimal outcome is to target drafting Grigorenko. The only downside is that you’re left with Sam Gagner as a redundant asset.
Assuming you could parlay Gagner into a top-3 Dman, you solve a number of problems by maximizing the current and future potential of your top 6 forwards (assuming Grigorenko > Gagner), while obtaining more help on D to advance our competitiive window.
Basically if Hall, RNH, and Eberle have proven anything it’s that they are impact players NOW. Waiting for the D to ripen would be a huge waste, so as the author suggests a big move SHOULD be in store.
I’ll be judging Tambellini on how he evolves this team by this September’s training camp.
When did it become common sense that a team can only have so many skilled players? It is a nonsensical idea. There is no such thing as a redundant asset. If Sam Gagner helps the team when he is on the ice, he does so whether or not Grigorenko also helps the team when he is on the ice. The Oilers do not have enough good players. Sam Gagner is a good player. Grigorenko is a good player. Having both of them is good. What is so difficult about that to understand?
Instead of the self-fulfilling prophecy of suck that is this notion of redundancy based on the very bad lineup plan of fielding only two scoring lines (which is clearly the Oilers plan) an intelligent team would follow a much simpler plan.
Get good players. Keep good players. Get more good players.
There is more than enough room to have both Sam Gagner and Grigorenko.
by Captain Obvious II on Feb 10, 2012 12:58 PM MST up reply actions
When did it become common sense that a team can only have so many skilled players?
With the introduction of the salary cap?
Still not entirely true. You can still be loaded…temporarily. In the specific case in the post, until Grigorenko’s ELC is up, things should be fine.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Feb 10, 2012 1:59 PM MST up reply actions
Cap’n Obvious – this might sound obvious, but if you have 3 offensive minded Centres in RNH, Grigorenko, and Gagner, while at the same time boasting the league’s worst D corps, wouldn’t it make sense to transform one of those C’s into a much-needed defenseman?
I’d also like to have 3 vezina-calibre goalies on the roster, however it doesn’t seem like a novel use of the team’s scarce resources.
by John Chambers on Feb 10, 2012 3:21 PM MST up reply actions
Cap’n Obvious – this might sound obvious, but if you have 3 offensive minded Centres in RNH, Grigorenko, and Gagner, while at the same time boasting the league’s worst D corps, wouldn’t it make sense to transform one of those C’s into a much-needed defenseman?
This is why you draft the best offensive forward with your first pick.
Top 6 scoring forwards are always the most valuable commodity in the NHL (the “franchise Dman” is close, but tougher to draft)
The draft is a free acquisition of assets. Collect the assets most likely to be valuable in the near future. You can always trade from strength to address weakness. (unless you are the Oilers, then you ignore weakness and proclaim yourself playoff worthy)
Looking at the history of drafting Dmen, often the best Dman wasn’t the first ones picked, but often the forwards fall into place roughly from where they were drafted (talking about top 1-10 picks), especially near the top of draft.
If you have a lottery pick and a player like Grigorenko is available its a crime not to take him.
Exactly!
It seems that a lot of the top blueliners are late 1st round and even 2nd and 3rd round picks sometimes. Dmen are just tougher to project in their draft year.
Over the last 6 or 7 years, the elite forwards taken in the top 3 have more consistently had an impact, and typically in a much shorter time span than any of the defensemen selected. If you want to get an elite defenseman, the best bet is to draft an elite forward with the lottery pick, allow him to replace a current asset (ie: Gagner) and then deal that player for a proven impact NHL blueliner. If, as Scott Reynolds says below (and rightfully so) Gagner is not enough on his own, then perhaps you put together a package with some prospects to get the deal done.
Great piece. The only problem is that, judged on the evidence so far, Tambellini doesn’t tend to pose big picture questions. He waits for them to be posed on him. We’ll see what he does this deadline, but I fear that the kind of pro-active stewardship you propose is simply not his style.
by Yeti# on Feb 10, 2012 11:16 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
First off, very good article.
I think the tricky part here is not knowing ahead of time where you’re going to draft. I’m more open to the idea of moving Gagner or Nugent-Hopkins for a defenseman if I know that the Oilers are drafting second, which means waiting until the draft instead of making a move at the deadline. That timing makes more sense to me anyway because contending teams aren’t likely to move impact defenders off their rosters before the playoffs.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
But even if the Oilers were not drafting 2nd, that #3 (or lower?) pick – even if he were a great prospective dman – would likely still not contribute to the NHL team for years.
The goal should be to get an elite or very good current NHL dman now.
I’m just much less comfortable moving Gagner or Nugent-Hopkins if the Oilers don’t draft Grigorenko.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 10, 2012 3:15 PM MST up reply actions
Mentioning RNH...
Nice!
He is a prospect, and a less developed an NHLer than #89.. In my mind at least.
by OilPen on Feb 10, 2012 4:33 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
It always depends on what you’re going to get. You almost certainly have a better chance at getting an elite defender with Nugent-Hopkins than you do with Gagner.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 10, 2012 4:50 PM MST up reply actions
Actually, I couldn’t agree more Scott. After posting and re-reading the article, I thought to myself “Well, if you’re going to move Gagner, why not wait and make sure you can replace him with someone like Grigorenko first?” In that sense, it is certainly worth considering waiting until the lead-up to the draft to consider moving Gagner. A little surprised you’re throwing Nugent-Hopkins into that mix, since I’m quite certain they wouldn’t entertain that unless they win the lottery and get Yakupov and offer up Nuge for someone like Shea Weber. Gagner seems the more likely player to be moved.
Appreciate the positive feedback on the article, working towards starting a blog of my own in the future, just getting starting to some practice here. Big fan of all of you guys at C&B, so the kind words mean a lot.
If the Oilers end up with Grigorenko, I think it makes sense to flip one of the three centers for help on the back end, but you need to make sure that you get an elite or near-elite defender in return. I just don’t think Gagner is enough to get you there.
If they end up with Yakupov, it would be a similar situation on the wing. Yeah, it’d be nice if Paajarvi got you an elite asset, but it’s more realistic to think you’ll get there with Hall, Eberle, or Yakupov.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 10, 2012 4:56 PM MST up reply actions
Great article. I’m glad someone else is trying to sort out the coming clusterf@#k and the various wormholes we may end up passing through.
You’ve made a pretty solid case for the final option (not sure if this is your preferred option or not, it seemed that way): trade assets for D and make up the forward gap by:
1) moving players up the depth chart
2) drafting the BPA in the lottery
3) acquiring via FA
Assuming we get pick 1 or 2, this choice makes a lot of sense. In the absence of surety on this it is hard evaluate the risk of dealing proven NHL talent for ?s (I don’t think there is much of a guarantee at forward, at least for 2012-2013 NHL duty, beyond the first two picks).
And, I’m not sold that the guys in the pipeline are ready to take Hemsky’s, and even less confident about Gagner’s spot (assuming of course we don’t pick up Grigorenko). Nor am I convinced that a top-six FA signing is going to be so easily acquired.
More and more it’s becoming clear to me that these NHL deadlines (trade, draft lottery, draft, etc.) are built to stew my brain with anxiety and anticipation!
Finally, maybe it’s the pessimist in me, but something tells me that in the next few weeks the team’s “course of action” will still remain a mystery to me.
by Romulus' Apotheosis on Feb 11, 2012 8:08 AM MST reply actions
There are actually 2 more examples of lottery picks being traded for assets in the last 15 years.
The first being the Islanders trading their 2nd overall pick to the Senators along with Zdeno Chara and Bill Muckalt for Alexei Yashin. The Sens took Jason Spezza. While Yashin’s play in New York is probably underrated, Ottawa clearly won the trade.
The second being the Lightning trading their 4th overall selection to the Flyers for Ruslan Fedotenko and two 2nd round picks. The Flyers ended up selecting Joni Pitkanen. This was a pretty terrible trade that Jay Feaster saved face on after Fedotenko got hot during the Cup run.
Defence is this team's top priority
Building a great defence should be this team’s top priority. The answer to the question asked in this post is a combination of drafting, building and trading. The fact that dmen tend to develop slower than forwards, does not justify the fact that the Oilers have not drafted a dman with their first pick in the first round since the 1800s (joke… actually since 1989). That’s 22 years.
We can bring in one or two new rookies a year from within at the most if they are properly drafted and developed, and other dmen need to be traded for or signed in the meantime, as part of a Master Plan.
There is no substitute for having alot of good young prospects at the dman position, as opposed to drafting the odd one in the later rounds, and patching together a defence every year. This is THE year to build a defence because there are way more good quality dmen this year in the draft than most years.
The plan with this team has always been to build an offence and piece together a defence afterwards.
There are no easy answers here. They should trade down and take the best two dmen available, and use this draft to stock up on dman prospects.
And on top of all of that the more FA dmen signed, the less cap room there will be to sign all of these core forwards that we have accumulated.
Predictably though, unless the management is changed, we will draft another forward with the first pick.
You don't take Dmen in the lottery
While I understand that you’re talking long-term, we can only grade the current Oilers Management group on their own decisions, and to-date, the Oilers have been a lottery team each of the last two years. History clearly shows that defensemen taken in lottery positions (Eric Johnson, Cam Barker, Luke Schenn, Zach Bogosian, Victor Hedmen) are far less guaranteed to develop into game-breaking players than forwards drafted in those positions. Drew Doughty is an absolute exception, but typically the d-men chosen at the top of the draft don’t necessarily become the best blueliners at the NHL level. I don’t see the justification in using top 10 picks, such as those the Oilers have had 4 of the last 5 years on blueliners unless there is an absolute no-brainer.
I don’t think you’ll find very many people who will disgree with what the Oilers have done in the first round since 2007 (with the exception of Plante and Nash, neither of whom were the team’s top pick that year ). The Oilers have numerous issues in recent years, but drafting bonefide NHL players in the first round has not been one of them.
And how is this plan that you’ve laid out about how to draft players working anyways?
I’m not suggesting they should use the number one overall pick to draft a dman. They could trade down and probably get a very good prospect, a good dman later in the first round and probably a 2nd rounder for that pick.
What good will another top forward prospect do them with this defence? It will just be more of the same.
As per my initial post, using a lottery pick on a player like a Grigorenko gives you the flexibility to move a Sam Gagner to address your blueline. Gagner is a very good player, and a personal favourite of mine, so I have no desire to see him traded, but if you are trying to build a winner, the combination and Grigorenko and a young, proven top 4D is more appealing to me then Ryan Murray and Sam Gagner.
When you ask “What good will another top forward prospect do them with this defence?” It will allow them to start dealing from a position of strength because they have the depth to begin moving QUALITY for quality, instead of just trying to take small steps forward with lower end players.
Or they could trade the #2 for a top 2 D. It’s worth looking into the value of trading it to Phoenix for Larsson. Or to Anaheim for Fowler. Or Pittsburgh for Letang. Or…you get the picture.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t believe that the #2 would get you Kris Letang. A pick doesn’t mesh with the Pens’ window to win another cup and Letang is so important to them.
Ekman-Larsson and Fowler are intriguing options, although based on what they have proven to date, Fowler a little more so.
Another place worth looking into would be Washington. If they don’t right the ship and need to re-tool, one of Carlson or Alzner would be worth looking at. I admit to not having studied their underlying numbers, but instinctively, I would lean to Carlson, as I believe his skill set is more well-rounded than Alzner, who strikes me as more of a Smid-style shutdown player, at least thus-far in his career.
Good point
As long as acquiring a top forward is part of a plan towards building a great defence, that would be a wonderful move. There are all kinds of ways to get to the promised land.
For the last few years I just haven’t seen any master plan to build a great defence… just alot acquiring top offensive talent and making do with a patchwork defence.
So there are some great pieces on this team, and there is no team yet because it’s like a jigsaw puzzle with the pieces in the center missing.
It doesn’t have to take 10 years to rebuild a team. The Flyers did it in two years by building a strong defence and adding quality forwards and building through the draft. They obviously had a plan. I don’t see any evidence of a plan here.
BTW, I’m not much for Ryan Murray either. I expect he’s years away from being an impact dman if he ever will be that.
Food for thought: Drafting D and young D playing in the NHL
A few lottery D in the last few drafts… we’d be lucky to have any of these and on our way to success. These are the type of D you build cups around. So I think drafting a D is a solid game plan. In brackets is their age and minutes range in their last 7 games (on better teams than the Oilers, most are top 2 pairing). You could also argue for trading for one of the players on this list.
Lottery Picks – I would kill to have any of these lottery picks on my team, (E. Johnson probably being the exception and the oldest player I put on this list just for reference as there are a bunch of great 23 yr olds too, but I had to stop somewhere)
1. Erik Johnson (23y, 19-24)
2. Doughty (22y, 23-27), Hedman (21y, 19-28)
3. Gudbranson (20y, 16-21), Bogosian (21y, 20-26)
4. Pietrangello (22y, 22-28), A. Larsson (19y, 18-27)
5. L. Schenn (22y, 14-19)
6. Ekman-Larsson (20y, 16-26)
But you could argue that you might have as much luck mid first round or lower:
9. Cowen (21y, 14-22)
11. Ellis (21y, 10-17)
12. Myers (22y, 22-25), McDonagh (22y, 21-29), Fowler (20y, 20-28)
14. Kulikov (21y, 20-26)
15. Karlsson (21y, 22-33)
16. Leddy (20y, 14-25)
17. Gardiner (21y, 19-27), Rundblad (21y, 8-18)
19. Sbisa (22y, 9-22)
20. Del Zotto (21y, 19-25)
23. Erixon (21y, 8-17), Urbom (21y, 10-16)
27. Carlson (22y, 21-27)
28. Olsen (21y, 10-19)
30. Despres (20y, 16-20)
It really falls off after that:
37. Faulk (19y, 22-26)
43. Subban (22y, 20-26)
49. Elliott (21y, 14-18)
53. Hamonic (21y, 21-26)
66. McNabb (21y, 16-22)
149. P. Larsen (22y, 16-21)
For Comparison:
Petry (24y, 21-26)
Gilbert (29y, 16-26)
Whitney (28y, 17-25)
Peckham (24y, 19-23)
Potter (28y, 17-23)
Smid (26y, 16-23)
Sutton (36y, 14-22)
Barker (25y, 14-21)
Potential Trading Partners Table:
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 14, 2012 11:08 AM MST reply actions
Certainly no argument that typically the best players go higher in the draft, but if you’re trying to get better right now, I don’t honestly know if you can consider Luke Schenn, Eric Gudbranson and the like an impact player yet.
Certainly, they would be in the conversation of players I would target if moving an asset like Sam Gagner, but the difference here would be that drafting Grigorenko and trading Gagner for, say Oliver Ekman-Larsson, would give you a young high-end blueliner who is already playing meaningful minutes in the NHL. Odds are that Grigorenko would have a legit shot at playing in the NHL as an 18 year old as well.
If you turn it around, and the Oilers’ keep Gagner and draft, say, Matt Dumba…again, if we use Ekman-Larsson’ career path as a comparable, he spent his first year post-draft playing in Europe, then came over in 10/11, and only put up 11 points in 50 games, plus some time in the AHL. It isn’t until this season, 2 years post-draft, that he is starting to be a larger contributor.
With the exception of Doughty, a timeline like that is about right for most of those players…at least 2 years after draft day before they are significant parts of their team. Drafting a forward allows you to reap the benefits sooner, and they are also easier to project in terms of their likely ability to suceed in the NHL.
No question there are some good players there though.
Schenn
Schenn is putting up amazing numbers for the ice time he’s getting (55GP, 2G, 15A, 89 blocked shots, 181 hits, 59 shots). He would get more ice time on most teams but Toronto (as much as it pains me to say) is stacked at D:
Phaneuf, Komisarek, Liles, Gunnarsson, Gardiner, Franson
There is a reason that when Pronger went down, Philadelphia has been sniffing around Schenn (Schenn for Riemsdyk is the rumour)
Gudbranson, granted, is still pretty green.
I agree, that drafting is too long a game to play, when Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, Gagner and hopefully Paajarvi will be hitting their stride now or early next year. The problem is that Hemsky, Khabibulin, Smyth, Omark, etc .. alone won’t get us the player we need. It would suck to give up a 1st round lottery pick though.
Okay, I better stop now… obviously I could go on and on… but I need to get a life, my life, back.
Later Alan, it’s been enlightening.
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 14, 2012 6:11 PM MST up reply actions
Not an exact science
Yes, drafting is not an exact science, and you could make the same argument as you just made about dmen about forwards… citing all the wonderful players that have come out of the sixth round, etc.
The fact is that a team needs to draft well in all positions to do well, because if they rely on signing players who go to the highest bidder, they run out of cap space in an awful hurry.
My main point here is that the Oilers have not put enough emphasis on drafting top quality dmen in the past 10 years and their GA and lack of quality blueliners demonstrates this, in spite of all the young offensivce stars accumulated.
I’d just love to see this team with a couple of stud dmen added to the great young group of forwards.
I agree for the most part. Certainly what this team needs is an upgrade in the skill on their blueline, but I think you can argue that they have made it a priority in recent years, they just started too late.
Martin Marincin, David Musil, Oscar Klefbom, Martin Gernat, Dillon Simpson, Jeremie Blain and Brandon Davidson have all been drafted in the last two years. Seven players for the same position in two years would classify as a pretty big emphasis on that position in my mind. Like I said though, they are developing slower and were drafted later than the core forwards, so they are playing catch-up.
I agree, not enough was done to keep the Oiler prospect pool stocked with assets for the blueline until recently, but really, when you look at the success fo Kevin Pendergrast overall, you can argue that neither the forward group, nor the situation in goal was any better until Stu McGregor came along. He can’t be faulted for the mistakes of those who came before him.
Unfortunately, to get what you need on the back end, it will cost you one of three things. 1) Cap space to go get someone like a Ryan Suter, 2) assets like Gagner or Paajarvi to trade for the players to address the need on the blueline, or 3) time, in the sense that there are reinforcements coming internally, but they are likely a few years from being able to contribute.
Sadly, there are no easy answers. One more draft of accumulating high end talent though would put the Oilers in a position of having some redundancy in the system, which will allow them to trade assets to fill holes and avoid creating new ones.
Would love to see a trade with Florida or Nashville or Ottawa
By the way, this was a great post Allan!
Package
Hemsky, Khabibulin and Sutton (9.6 million in contracts)
Nashville for:
Blum (D,23), Hellberg (G,20), Budish (RW, 20)
3ish million in contracts + 14.5 million in cap space
or
Florida for:
Gudbranson (D,20), Markstrom (G,22), Hyman (RW,19)
5.5ish million incontracts + 9.5 million in cap space
or
Ottawa for:
Cowen (D,21), Lehner (G,20), Noesen (RW, 19)
3.5ish million in contracts + 13 million in cap space.
They are all in the hunt this year so may be hoping to add that prolific scoring RW, a veteran D and a veteran goalie for a playoff run. Plus they have plenty of cap space to take on a few big contracts coming their way.
I’m I valuing Hemsky, Khabibulin, Sutton too much or too little?
Would Edmonton or these teams even dream of making this type of trade?
Addressing our D issues: Blum, Gudbranson and Cowen are 2-4 years ahead of any 18 year old D we could draft in June and they are looking more like locks to be impact players all the time.
It also addresses our need for a 1st or 2nd string goalie of the future. Markstrom has performed great this year. His save pct is amazing, but he is stuck behind Theodore and Clemmenson. I think he could step into a starting position at 22. Lehner has performed well when called upon. Hellberg is a bit of an unknown for me but he is one of the elite top goalies outside the NHL right now.
With Hemsky gone and Eberle taking over the top line RW position and keeping Gagner and Nugent-Hopkins, and, with plenty of LWs on the team and on the way up (Hall, Paajarvi, Hamilton, Hartikaenen, Omark, etc) there is no skilled RW to move to 2nd line. It would be great to get Zach Budish from Nashville, Zachary Hyman from Florida, or Stefan Noesen (or Mark Stone) from Ottawa. They’re all big kids that could be prototypical power forwards. We need some size upfront on the top 2 lines that is lacking right now.
I know, dreaming… sigh
Thoughts?
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 14, 2012 12:52 PM MST reply actions
Sadly, you are dreaming.
I wish I could agree that any of those deals are plausible, but they’re not.
In Nashville, Jonathan Blum is a likely target in any potential Hemsky deal, and that is a possibility, but Nashville would have ZERO interest in Khabibulin, particulary with another year on his deal. With Rinne and Lindback, they are more solid than almost any team in hockey between the pipes.
The Florida deal is just too rich. Markstrom is the heir to the #1 job there, and they are just keeping it warm for him until he is ready to step in. Again, Gudbranson is a nice target (likely to take someone like Gagner to get him though), but Markstrom for Khabibulin is not an exchange I see happening.
In Ottawa, their veteran presence in goal is their starter, Craig Anderson. I don’t think they would have an appetite on a young rebuilding to be committed to two older goaltenders, both of whom have commitments beyond this season.
I don’t see the Oilers moving Khabibulin, but if they do, you are likely looking at very little return, a draft pick, or a low pairing blueliner with an inflated contract to balance the dollars. If there is a market, it would likely be Tampa, Detroit or Chicago in my estimation.
Haha, thought so,
Oh well, one can always dream…
I like the idea of Detroit….
Hemsky (we know Holland likes him), Khabibulin (I doubt they want depend on MacDonald and Conklin as their playoff backup to Howard) for 7.85 million in contracts going to Detroit
for
Brendan Smith (6’2", 23y, D), Thomas Mcollum (22y, G), & Teemu Pulkkinen (5’11", 20y, RW) or Tomas Jurco (6’1", 19y, RW)
@ about 2.56 Million contracts plus 5.34 million current cap space for 7.9 ish million. It fits, but that’s probably considered too high a price to pay talentwise.
Maybe throw in Linus Omark for Joakim Andersson with pretty equal contracts if Omark helps pull the trigger.
Still dreaming.
I like the idea of Chicago too but I’m not sure Khabibulin is a step up over Emery or Crawford.
The same goes for Tampa Bay. I like but I’m not sure old man Khabibulin would be all that palatable in a city where another old man (Roloson) just lost his shit this year.
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 14, 2012 5:50 PM MST up reply actions
Won't happen
I realize you’re dreaming, but Brendan Smith is the Wings’ #1 defensive prospect and is as untouchable as prospects go. It would take a lot more than Hemsky to get him away from Detroit with how much time they’ve put into Smith’s development. The Wings have more forward prospects that could be used as trade bait, but the buzz is that Pulkkinen is very high on their list and would be kept over others (Tomas Tatar, Jurco, Andersson).
Ken Holland also came out yesterday and said that with the recent play of Joey MacDonald in Jimmy Howard’s absence, they are no longer searching for a backup goalie. It’s Howard’s team, and they only need a backup to spell him until the playoffs start. Unless he gets really hurt or regresses even more than the Minnesota Wild, the Wings will ride Howard for as long as they can in the post-season.
Hmmm...
I’m sure you’re right, but for shitz’n’giggles…
Hemsky, Kahbibulin and our 1st round pick (probably 2nd or 3rd overall = Yakupov, Gregorenko or Forsberg)
for
Brendan Smith, Thomas Mcollum, Teemu Pulkkinen or Tomas Jurco or 1st round pick (probably 29th or 30th overall)
A top 3 pick pretty much guarantees a future star when Detroits roster is starting to look pretty old. Maybe Joey Mac will gain Babcock’s confidence, but his sample size is still pretty small with 3 sub par games of his 6 games (882,897,909). Those aren’t starting/backup goalie numbers for a cup run. It would be a waste of a great season if Howard’s injury proves worse than previously thought and they have to ride MacDonald. Only 10 days to decide.
I would think Detroit will pull out all the stops this year as this may be the last time (for a while) they finish 1st overall with Lidstrom still in the lineup. (maybe Holmstrom and Bertuzzi too). Detroit’s future is now.
As with most of my ideas on here… pipe dreams, I’m sure.
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 16, 2012 8:13 PM MST up reply actions
one more try...
Package
Hemsky, Khabibulin and 1st round lottery pick (7.85 million in contracts)
Brendan Smith (D), Thomas McOllum (G), Tomus Jurco (RW) – they have 2 highly touted RW prospects and they would have to unload salary to afford Khabibulin and Hemsky so Jurco or Pulkinnen would give them the space and their 1st round pick (currently around 30th)
Then we draft 30th, whatever is available then, maybe USHL D Michael Matheson.
OR, even better
Package
Hemsky, Khabibulin and 1st round pick (7.85 million in contracts)
Nashville for:
Blum (D,23), Hellberg (G,20), and their 1st round pick (currently around 25th)
3ish million in contracts + 14.5 million in cap space
or
Florida for:
Gudbranson (D,20), Markstrom (G,22), and their 1st round pick (currently around 20th)
5.5ish million in contracts + 9.5 million in cap space
or
Ottawa for:
Cowen (D,21), Lehner (G,20), and their 1st round pick (currently around 17th)
3.5ish million in contracts + 13 million in cap space
With our 1st round pick, we draft Tom Wilson, big bruising power RW currently rated at 24th in the scouting list.
Now, these make sense… I think.
I think most teams in the hunt for the playoffs would love to have Hemsky on the Wing and powerplay to add scoring and Khabibulin as insurance in net, and then be able to draft an elite lottery pick player in June on top of it all. We get a D and a Goalie that are both ready to move into a fulltime NHL position rather than a D that is 2 years away and we get to draft a power forward RW to fill a gap on the right side behind Eberle and add some skilled size and grit to the team.
Okay, now I should quit, before I get banned from commenting on other people’s posts or something. (sorry to hijack your post Alan, but it provided too good a platform for discussion)
GO OILERS!
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 14, 2012 7:09 PM MST reply actions
While I would love the FLA trade as an Oiler’s fan, I just don’t see it happening. I could see Talon giving up one or the other, but not both Markstrom and Gudbranson. And I don’t think he needs Khabby. Replace him with Dubnyk and maybe you have a conversation.
Cowen is a key player for Ottawa now, so I don’t see a deal like that at the deadline. Draft day, maybe, but again I think you are swapping Dubnyk not Khabby.
Detroit would probably do that deal, but frankly that’s because its a bad deal for the Oilers. No proven winners there and you are giving up the 1st or 2rd overall pick.
Not sold on the Nashville deal either.
Chicago, Ottawa, Minnesota, Phoenix, Winnipeg, St. Louis or even Dallas?
Similar to the above trades:
Package:
Hemsky, Khabibulin and 1st round lottery pick (7.85 million in contracts) to:
In draft swap deals below, if we receive a draft pick in the top 25, we draft Tom Wilson, big bruising power RW currently rated at 24th in the scouting list.
Chicago for:
Nick Leddy (D, 20, too valuable?, then Dylan Olsen (D,21)), Kent Simpson (G, 19), and their 1st round pick (currently around 19th)
2ish million in contracts + 5.2 million in cap space = 7.2 ish million (they would have to dump salary to do this)
or
Nick Leddy (D, 20, too valuable?, then Dylan Olsen (D,21)), Kent Simpson (G, 19), and Jimmy Hayes (RW, 22)
2.9 ish million in contracts + 5.2 million in cap space = 8.1 ish million
Hossa and Hemsky on the RW, Toews and Kane at Center (they’ve been experimenting with Kane at Center this year) would make for 2 solid lines with Sharp and Brunette on LW. Khabibulin as an answer to their goalie woes (not sure it’s a great answer, but an answer nonetheless). Leddy and Olsen are both playing this year so they might be hard to pry away. Olsen would be easier to get than Leddy right now.
or
Ottawa for:
Jared Cowen (D,21), Robin Lehner (G,20), and their 1st round pick (currently around 17th)
3.5ish million in contracts + 13 million in cap space
I would love to have Cowen but It’s hard to see Ottawa parting with him although a number 2or 3 Filip Forsberg LW pick might sound pretty damn good. a 1-2 of Alfredsson and Hemsky on the RW for Spezza and Turris (or Zibanajed next year) is pretty intimidating too.
or
Minnesota for:
Jonas Brodin (D,18, too young?), Matt Hackett (G,21), and their 1st round pick (currently around 9th)
2.4 ish million in contracts + 8.1 million in cap space = 10.5 ish million
or
Jonas Brodin (D,18, too young?), Matt Hackett (G,21), Charlie Coyle (RW, 19, too valuable?)
3.5ish million in contracts + 8.1 million in cap space = 11.6 ish million
Only problem with Minnesota is that they’re not really in the hunt this year so they may not want the veterans for a playoff run.
or
Phoenix for:
David Rundblad (D,21) – or Brandon Gormley (D,20), Mark Visentin (G,19), and their 1st round pick (currently around 15th)
2.4 million in contracts + 10.7 million in cap space = 13.1 ish million
or
David Rundblad (D,21) – or Brandon Gormley (D,20), Mark Visentin (G,19), and Viktor Tikhonov (RW,23)
3.2ish million in contracts + 10.7 million in cap space = 14 ish million
I really like Phoenix possibilities and if they make a playoff run they may not want to depend on Labarbera to back up Smith in net. Even better if we could pry RW Mikkel Boedker off them instead of Tikhonov. If Doan is on his way out, Hemsky is 7 years younger… although that doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, and I think Doan wants to stay.
or
Winnipeg for:
Zach Bogosian (D,21), Spencer Machacek (G,19), and their 1st round pick (currently around 10th)
3.4 million in contracts + 12 million in cap space = 15.4 ish million
I doubt that they would part with Bogosian as he is a big part of a rebuilding phase and their next D prospect sucks – Paul Postma (22) as does their RW prospect Petterson-Wentzel (20) so I wouldn’t consider those as options. Plus a playoff push seems unlikely at this point.
or
St. Louis for:
Ian Cole (D,22), Jake Allen (G,21), and their 1st round pick (currently around 28th)
2.1 million in contracts + 9.8 million in cap space = 11.9 ish million
or
Ian Cole (D,22), Jake Allen (G,21), and Vladimir Tarasenko (RW, 20)
3.1 ish million in contracts + 9.8 million in cap space = 12.9 ish million
This is highly unlikely as Tarasenko may be the best player not in the NHL right now. Cole and Allen are not great prospects, so Tarasenko would be the only enticement for Edmonton and that wouldn’t address our D or G issues.
or Dallas but they’re not really in the playoff hunt and their prospects are not that great except Jack Campbell at goalie but I doubt that they’d give him up for anything.
Thoughts? Anything relatively realistic in here?
by Maurey Loeffler on Feb 15, 2012 8:41 AM MST reply actions
I think the big package deals you are proposing are too unlikely.
As Derek suggested above, it is a more likely scenario to trade the 1st rounder by itself for a more advanced player/prospect, like a Cam Fowler or John Carlson, and then trying to make separate moves for people like Hemsky and Khabibulin (if the team wants to/is able to deal them). Getting a potential impact Dman, another well regarded player or prospect and a high pick all in one deal and all from one team is a near impossible puzzle to put together and big deals like that rarely happen these days.
Specific trade speculation is so pointless (sorry to criticize) until you know specifically what teams you are dealing with. The more likely situation would that those three assets are moved to three separate destinations, if they are moved at all.
Intriguing what the NYI turned that pick into...
1 Player – Bailey
3 Possible Players
1 Throwaway
Will be interesting to revisit in a couple years.
NYI gets
2008
(1)9th(Josh Bailey C)4 NHL Seasons 102 pts/267 g,
(2)40th(Aaron Ness D) AHL 17 pts/46 g/NHL 0 pts/5 g,
(3)102nd(David Ullstrom(C/L) AHL 20 pts/28 g/NHL 4 pts/14 g),
2009
(4)Toronto’s 2nd Packaged to eventually move up from 26th to 12th (Calvin De Haan D) AHL 16 pts/32 g NHL 0 pts/1 g
2010
(5)NYR 6th Packaged with another 6th, for a 2011 5th used to pick Brenden Kichton D WHL 57 pts/54 g
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