Ken Holland's Draft Success

So, how long did their rebuild take?

So what you’re telling me is that Holland found an untapped resource (that is staring everyone in the face) in the European market and exploited the fact that the rest of the NHL is convinced that European hockey players lack “grit,” “size,” or whatever? And, that he’s been doing this since 1997 and no one has yet bothered to look over his shoulder and take a serious peek at European scouting?

Who could have predicted the strength of the Don Cherry narrative?

I am supposed to be impressed right? Well… crap it worked. I’m also depressed. So there.

(But they wear visors!!)

But it’s important to remember that in Detroit it’s really a team effort. The front office staff of Jimmy Devellano, Jim Nill, Mike Babcock, and Kris Draper all have input into the draft and development of young players. The former players like Chris Chelios, Chris Osgood, and Jiri Fischer have important rolls in developing young players after they are drafted. And of course, the scouting department with the aforementioned Hakan Anderson (as well as Kirk Maltby and many more) are a huge part of finding that talent to begin with.

As well as Holland has done as GM, however, I wouldn’t be too afraid if he decided to retire tomorrow. Holland deserves his due as GM, but he infrastructure the team has developed is well prepared to carry on in similar fashion once he’s finally had enough winning and rides of into the sunset.

Would be interesting to compare Holland’s performance in grabbing “top players” to his performance in grabbing mere “NHL players”, e.g. anybody with 200 GP. In other words, is there any basis to infer that he tends to swing for the fences with his picks, leading to a boom or bust performance? That’s certainly how I would run my drafts as a GM—picking guys with 3d line upside seems silly—and I wonder if there’s evidence that’s what Holland does. The other option I suppose is that he (or his organization) is just better overall.

This is a great little study. It is remarkable, as has been pointed out in the comments, that more teams have not tried to emulate his (and Jim Devellano, who is the one who truly turned the Wings around and mentored Holland, in addition to still being a huge part of the front office) work. We draft European players that show the right attitude (bar Daniel Larsson, Dick Axelsson, and, maybe, Jiri Hudler) and respect for the game as well as a high hockey IQ. We then support those picks by grabbing cast offs that few other teams would use and attempt to turn their careers around (just on the current team, you have Brad Stuart, Patrick Eaves, Drew Miller, Mike Commodore, Ian White, Dan Cleary, and even Todd Bertuzzi. All shunned by the majority of the league, all turned into decent to great players here)

But the thing that really should have been given attention in the article is that we have a luxury that no team — other than the Sharks, Canucks, and Devils, perhaps —has had during this period: development time. We let our players mature until they are ready, not push them out on the ice because they are needed. Because of our continued success, there is no urgency to play a player before they are ready. Jimmy Howard, for example, was 25 or 26 by the time he was made our backup — and even then, most fans wanted him to remain with the Griffins another year. Or look at Brendan Smith right now. Smith has, arguably, been NHL-ready since he was drafted. At this point, a lot of teams in the league would have played him on their second defensive pairing or higher. Because of the longevity of our players (Chelios and Lidstrom playing into their 40’s and not forcing Kronwall on the ice too quickly, mostly), Smith won’t be an NHL regular before next season at the earliest.

If more players could avoid hitting the ice at 18-21ish and spend some time in the minors learning the game and gaining experience, more of these third and fourth liners would be elite players in the league. And, just to relate this back to Edmonton, it seems that every high draft pick you guys make sees their way onto the ice almost immediately. Hall, Gagner, Eberle, Omark, and even RNH would have benefited from a year or two developing in the minors rather than being forced out there before they were 100% ready. Look no further than Dubnyk who came into the league with much more experience than your average player and has shown he has what it takes to be a franchise goalie when the call comes.

Wings fans have heard this story before. Ken Holland was a minor league goalie in the ’80s for the Whalers and Wings organizations. He got called up to the NHL early, got burned, and got discarded. This is from an article by Nick Cotsonika at Yahoo Sports last month about Jimmy Howard and the Red Wings development strategy:

“Time after time, Holland saw guys get called up, get excited, get humbled, get crushed and come back down needing their confidence to be rebuilt. They were rushed before they were ready or put in a position to fail because the big club was struggling and looking for a quick fix. …

“They draft later, so they don’t get teenage phenoms who can jump right into the NHL. They get prospects with flaws. They look for skill, smarts and heart more than strength and size. They give their prospects time to grow, and they can afford to wait while winning. Ideally, they want their prospects overripe when they finally make the NHL …

“‘It took me back to my time as a player,’ Holland said. ‘It’s a man’s league, and some people are men at 20, some people are men at 22, some people are men at 25. We all mature at different rates.’”

Aside from top draft picks like Taylor Hall, Seguin or Stamkos, don’t all draft picks have some flaws? I think this method could probably work with Edmonton’s blue chips, as well as Detroit’s late rounders. But do Edmontonians have the patience?