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Ron Wilson's On-Ice Deployments

When it comes to the Leafs, every move and every storyline is amplified and magnified. Toronto, being the centre of the hockey universe (Yes, I know, but let's just let them think this) means that personnel moves make national news, slumps become prayer-worthy, and breakout seasons mean hall-of-fame predictions.

Though Ron Wilson's mug is a constant fixture on TSN and CBC, and his job review is never-ending, a deep dive into Wilson personnel deployments is a worthwhile endeavor. After the jump, we'll break down his bench management strategy.

The horizontal axis shows qualcomp, specifically Corsi relative quality of competition taken from the venerable and terrifying Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. The vertical axis shows percentage of percentage of faceoffs taken in the defensive zone, again from the venerable and terrifying one. The bubbles are color-coded: blue means the player in the bubble has a positive zonestart-adjusted Corsi, red a negative. Finally, the size of the bubble indicates absolute value zonestart-adjusted Corsi.

Star-divide

Ron_wilson_s_forward_deployments_medium

*Click to enlarge or find the full-sized chart here.

  • The Leafs aren't a good possession team in general, they rank 23rd in Fenwick close, and only three of their forwards have a positive adjusted Corsi.
  • One of those forwards, budding superstar Mikhail Grabovski, has obviously benefited from playing against second-toughs, though his linemates haven't matched his performance.
  • The Leafs are driving play into the offensive zone, and as such don't have an overly sheltered line, as some teams, the Oilers and Canucks most prominently, are using. They do however have a defensive zone grouping, Dupuis, Brown, Steckel, Crabb, but Wilson is not using them against the toughs. They're getting the easiest possible qualcomp.

Ron_wilson_s_defensive_deployments_medium

*Click to enlarge or find the full-sized chart here.

  • Wilson is using two of his defensemen exclusively against the toughs. Dion Phaneuf and Carl Gunnarsson are the only blueliners on the right side of the of the graph. Gunnarsson has been used in the defensive zone more often, but neither man is on the positive side of the ledger.
  • Cody Franson is getting the easiest possible comp and the easiest zonestarts and has made some hay.

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Our underlying numbers were terrible for the first few months.

Although we’ve actually been okay the last month-ish, and so we actually have moved up a few places on the fenwick rankings.

by samspade on Feb 6, 2012 1:45 PM MST reply actions  

I should qualify that. I’m pretty sure our possesion numbers have been improving lately, and Im pretty sure we’ve gone up from something like 26/27th Fenwick even rank, but I don’t have actual access to the numbers right now.

by samspade on Feb 6, 2012 1:50 PM MST up reply actions  

I actually know where to find it, but for some reason my employer has decided to block behind the net. Maybe they think it’s a gambling site or something.

by samspade on Feb 6, 2012 2:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Some other things

he’s used both ‘top 6’ lines against then toughs this year, often Lupul Bozak Kessel, but lately it’s been Grabbo .

The last 2 games against Pittsurgh it’s been Grabovski who matched against Malkin.

Wilson has also been giving minutes to all four lines. The current iteration of the ‘4th’ is Brown – Steckel – Armstrong. Expect to see them out a lot if the Leafs are defending a close lead late.

by samspade on Feb 6, 2012 2:17 PM MST reply actions  

Unmentioned in that summary: Luke Schenn getting lit the fuck up against middling competition. Stands out like a sore thumb against the rest of the D group there, who all look pretty close to even by ZSAC.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Feb 6, 2012 2:51 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

We’re coming to the conclusion that Luke Schenn is way over hyped and not particularly good at being a “shutdown defenseman”. He was rushed to the NHL and it’s hindered his game. He’ll probably be good in 3-4 years, but right now it ain’t very pretty.

The First Certified Grabbo Lover

by SkinnyFish on Feb 6, 2012 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

I wonder if it’s big contract jitters or something? His numbers appear much better last season.

Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines

by Triumph44 on Feb 6, 2012 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Last year he was mostly paired with Francois Beauchemin who carried the load, then was Beauchemin left he was paired with Kaberle and given easy minutes while Reimer stood on his head.

The First Certified Grabbo Lover

by SkinnyFish on Feb 6, 2012 3:27 PM MST up reply actions  

This whole post is stupid. Ron Wilson himself has said he doesn't match lines.

The First Certified Grabbo Lover

by SkinnyFish on Feb 6, 2012 3:08 PM MST reply actions  

Exactly! Why would a coach lie to the media?

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Feb 6, 2012 3:50 PM MST up reply actions  

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