A Defense Of Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe
by Triumph44 on Feb 5, 2012 8:00 AM MST
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PrintFull disclosure: I'm not an Oilers fan. I have, however, become all too aware of the Oilers over recent years because of their intelligent and passionate fan base - if I want to read smart writing on hockey, places like here and mc79hockey and Irreverent Oiler Fans is where I've got to go. These places feature endless ranting about the Oilers' current management, most of which is completely justified. Yet I've come here not to bury Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe, nor to praise them; I will defend their management strategy even if it is terrible at the margins. There are plenty of debacles and they've all been chronicled here ad infinitum, but there's some good, even if it can't be seen right away. My defense will be based on three things, after the jump:
A: General Manager talent appears to be quite scarce. The four most recent NHL expansion teams - Nashville, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Columbus - selected their first general manager to be, respectively, David Poile, Don Waddell, Doug Risebrough, and Doug MacLean. Poile had been a long-time GM of the Washington Capitals, and Risebrough had been the GM of the Flames who oversaw the disastrous Doug Gilmour trade. The other two men had never served as an NHL General Manager. Of those four men, only Poile is still employed by his team, whereas the other three men left their franchises in a state of near-ruin by the time they exited. The total number of playoff rounds won by this foursome is three, in 43 combined years of existence.
What does this have to do with Lowe and Tambellini? Well, you never know who would replace them. My guess would be that if the current management were fired at the conclusion of this year, the next general manager would set as his goal to make the playoffs next season. That's a noble idea, but...
B: The Oilers' management is not changing horses mid-stream. By which I mean, Oiler management no longer seems confused about its direction. NHL players exit Edmonton via trade, prospects and draft picks come back. This practice has been widely mocked by Oiler fans - the 'BAM, Stanley Cup' meme is a favorite of mine - but it covers one of the Oilers' main general managerial weaknesses - identifying NHL talent in other organizations.
In other organizations, the GM and President would likely be nervous about keeping their jobs through so many disastrous seasons. Their owner might make it clear to them that they should make the playoffs this year or else. We've seen many terrible moves made under this threat, either implied or real. Who could forget Don Waddell's Atlanta Thrashers trading Braydon Coburn and a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick for Alexei Zhitnik and Keith Tkachuk? Who could forget Dave Taylor of the Kings trading Denis Grebeshkov and Jeff Tambellini for Brent Sopel and Mark Parrish? The Oilers have the luxury of not making moves like this - with stable management and a fanbase with inexhaustible patience, the Oilers can hold on to their young players and let them develop.
C: Comparisons to other failed teams fail to take B into account. It's become trendy to compare the Oilers to teams who've been constant failures over the last 15 years, like the Islanders, Thrashers, and Blue Jackets. Still, these teams combined poor drafting WITH horrendous talent management.
D: This is a corollary to A - Owners do not seem particularly adept at choosing general managers and/or team presidents. It's difficult to understand why this is, but the best general managers typically stay employed for a long time, and the rest of the league tends to shuffle people around hoping to find a great GM. Derek has shown that for the most part, GMs are ex-players or sons of famous coaches, GMs, and/or players - there's not many outsiders let into the NHL management rodeo. This may sound like a Catch-22, but if Darryl Katz is dumb enough to extend Tambellini for several more seasons, if he were smart enough to know to fire Tambo, would he really be able to hire someone better?
Lowe and Tambellini's many failures don't inspire a lot of confidence in their ability to steer the Oilers, so we'll have to see how this rebuild progresses. Yes, Sam Gagner is unbelievably a UFA in 2014, 41 days short of his 25th birthday, and he could be moved soon. Magnus Paajarvi hit a rut in his development - will his potential go unfulfilled? Will the Oilers trade him away for cents on the dollar if he doesn't improve substantially next year? How will the Oilers find a defense and goaltender? I really have no idea - Lowe and Tambellini often surprise. While I doubt very much that these two can lead the Oilers to a Stanley Cup, or even to Stanley Cup contention, I do think they are moving the franchise towards being a perennial playoff team.
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by IAmJoe on Feb 5, 2012 8:04 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
tl;dr version: other GMs have screwed up, so it’s not that bad.
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You are going to get, um, flamed for this but I think your points are valid.
A more appropriate title would have been “An Argument Against Firing Tambellini” since you aren’t actually making an argument for the job he’s done, just saying it could be worse and might well be if they let him go.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Agree on most points...
I think Tambellini has done a masterful job of revamping the development system… i.e. OKC? Knocked that one out of the park and a critical move for lasting success. Stu MacGregor is a gem and is feeding the talent pool also. A couple of red flags i see are Pro scouting… Khabby, Belanger, Foster, O’Sullivan… not a very good track record. One more thing about this man just doesnt seem right? Doesn’t speak with his top 6 forward to ask what he’s looking for prior to UFA? Has a history of poor communication. And appears incredibly uncomfortable in front of camera’s? His communication skills appear to be lacking to the extent that one has to wonder if this affects his ability to negotiate with other GM’s, Player Agents, and players? But i agree the management strategy as of 2.5 years ago is a very good one.
Has anything come from the revamped development system yet?
Until something worthwile comes from it, it’s pretty tough to call it a positive. The Oilers had some fantastic AHL farm teams in the 90’ that never contributed a thing.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
by dawgbone98 on Feb 5, 2012 10:50 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Well they came from a shared AHL Franchise with players being loaned to other teams AHL teams.. Poor facilities and patched together trainers… Ask how Deslaurier liked it in that system… Now they are fully in control of a new AHL franchise in OKC.. Currently i believe 1st in the league.. Brand new state of the art training equipment and trainers… They are more organized by running the same system of play. Buying the Oil Kings and moving certain players to the Oil Kings to better keep an eye on these prospects and allow them to utilize the trainers taht are also available to teh Oilers.. etc etc …You don’t see all of these moves as for the better?
by admiralmark on Feb 5, 2012 4:08 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It’s a good point about the Oil Kings. The Oilers are making active use of the junior team to develop their own prospects, and that’s a good thing. Now, it’s obviously not enough in itself to outweigh the problems that Lowe and Tambellini have had with filling out the professional roster, but it is something and it deserves acknowledgement.
It seems like a good thing, for sure, and there’s probably at least some small positive advantage that accrues to the Oilers, but I’m not sure AHL team quality makes that much difference. When the Barons start graduating players, it’ll be hard to say how much the system made a difference and how much of it was the talent of individual players.
The Oilers had quite a few guys go through the “bad” or “shared” AHL teams. From 2002-03 to 2009-10, the AHL graduated Jarret Stoll, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Fernando Pisani, Ty Conklin, Matt Greene, Kyle Brodziak, Tom Gilbert, and Devan Dubnyk. Will the Oilers graduate eight guys better than that from 2010-11 to 2017-18? And so what if they don’t? Is that the system’s fault?
Basically, I’m not convinced that Deslauriers becomes an NHLer if he comes into the system now or that Omark washes out if he was a Springfield Falcon, but that’s because I think the primary driver is player talent. And if that’s the case, how much can “the system” matter?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 5, 2012 5:05 PM MST up reply actions
Of course nothing has come from it yet. It’s a development system and by the very definition will take time to bear fruit.
At this point, all you can do is look at the underlying indicators (improved communication with junior players, better on ice success in OKC, better quality coaching, strong summer development program, leveraging the Oil Kings for import player development) and you have to expect that over time a program with those characteristics will produce more and better players than one that does not. If you beleive those are positive characteristics, then I am not sure how you can call adding/improving them anything but positive?
I frankly do not expect the new player development system to have a material impact on the Oilers for a couple of year yet, which is why burning the first couple of years of Gagner, Smid, RNH, Hall, and MPS’s years of controlability is/was nuts.
That’s what drives me nuts about tambo. he seems laser focused on the draft and player development and seems to have forgotten all the other aspects of being a GM – player retention and player trades, and he seems too timid at player acqusition through free agency.
Frankly the Oilers would have been way better off to blow thier cap brains out on 2 year deals for decent free agents and let Hall, RNH and MPS mature at lower leagues (WHL, AHL) then start flipping those FA assets as the next gen approached 20.
I would love to see an analysis of the average point production of top 10 picks in thier 18 and 19 year old seasons vs thier 25 and 26 year old seasons to show what Lowe and Tambo have put a risk by rushing young players. ELCs be damned, its controllablity that matters.
That’s fine… my point was before we declare it a win, let’s get something out of it first.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
A couple of red flags i see are Pro scouting…
This is so overused that it’s become a meme.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah, and “pro scouting” is the scapegoat, Tambellini avoids blame.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
True enough.. Guess it could be Tambi’s ineptitude. I guess we will likely never know what advice he’s getting from his Pro Scouts and its ultimately his decision. But it is also in the realm of possibilities he’s not getting quality information back from his pro scouts.. is it not? At any rate this trade deadline is really gonna speak volumes as to his capabilities…
I don’t know why you’re so hung up about this, Derek. “Pro scouting” is a dept and Tambellini is in charge of it, as well as of the decisions that come out of it. Of course he is responsible. When I refer to “pro scouting” it’s a shorthand of identifying an area of Steve Tambellini’s organization that does have a fairly poor track record. I don’t see the identification of that weakness as somehow deflecting blame from Tambellini, quite the opposite in fact.
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 7, 2012 10:35 AM MST up reply actions
Maybe I misread, but do you think it is unreasonable for the team to be a playoff contender next season? For instance, I honestly feel we are very close to being a playoff contender and could do it without destroying our core at all.
Maybe I misread, but do you think it is unreasonable for the team to be a playoff contender next season?
They need a goaltender, two top 4 defenseman, a replacement for Hemsky and a replacement for Smyth.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Agreed
….a Pronger type D man..and a stay at home guy…if Duby can reduce the Tommy Salo moments he could hold the fort…but why don’t they just sign Hemsky…he looks like he’s healed and wants to stick around…jmho
They aren’t getting a “Pronger” type without giving up Hall or Hopkins. They don’t even need that. Paul Martin and Andrej Sekera would be plenty.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So are we saying it is impossible to find 2 top 4 dmen and a goalie? Also, why not keep Hemsky and Smyth instead of replace them? All of those things seem very attainable to me… I don’t think we need Sutter and Webber plus Price to make the playoffs. I agree with something like Martin and Sekera and I’m not sure if Dubnyk should be written off yet. Khabi needs to go obviously.
So are we saying it is impossible to find 2 top 4 dmen and a goalie?
In general, certainly not. But this management team hasn’t shown the ability to make these types of moves. Ever.
Also, why not keep Hemsky and Smyth instead of replace them?
Why not, indeed? If they re-sign Smyth, but trade Hemsky for, say, Patrick Wiercioch and the Sens’ 1st, they’ll lose yet another tough minutes player and have to replace him.
I’m not sure if Dubnyk should be written off yet. Khabi needs to go obviously.
Right, but that means they have to buy out Khabibulin or ship him to OKC next season.
Let’s assume that they re-sign Smyth to a nice cap-friendly deal.
Let’s assume that they make a deal for someone like Sekera or Martin and that deal means shipping Paajarvi and a pick out.
Let’s assume that they also lure Carle or Grossman to Edmonton.
Let’s assume they buyout or ship Khabibulin away.
Let’s assume that they’re smart enough to replace him with a low-cost alternative on a one-year deal that can give them league-average goaltedning, say, Clemmensen or Vokoun.
Let’s assume that they trade Hemsky for Wiercioch and a first and they replace him with a legit toughs winger from somewhere.
Those are enormous assumptions to make of a management team that hasn’t been able to do anything like the moves above since getting Pitkanen for Lupul.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But this management team hasn’t shown the ability to make these types of moves. Ever.
Kevin Lowe has done it (Pronger, Spacek and Roloson all in one year, the aforementioned Pitkanen acquisition, and then Visnovsky for parts in another summer). Kevin Lowe partnered with Steve Tambellini, not so much.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 5, 2012 5:10 PM MST up reply actions
If they had only let someone else handle contract negotiations during his reign, imagine what could have happened…
Apparently they let Scott Howson do a lot of it before he left for Columbus, which brings us back to Triumph’s original point quite nicely!
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 5, 2012 5:43 PM MST up reply actions
Except for Steve Mason, Howson hasn’t been awful.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Is your argument that, Mason aside, he’s been good? Or just, “not awful”?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 5, 2012 8:19 PM MST up reply actions
If you take away the terrible decision to rely on Mason and get him absolutely no help, he’s not bottom 5, maybe bottom 7, let’s say.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So basically, the best reason to not fire Tambo is:
1. He hasn’t completely screwed up yet by trading away good young players for questionable vets.
2. We could potentially hire someone worse.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
So basically, cheer up Syria it’s not that bad. You could have been living in Soviet Russia?
by melancholyculkin on Feb 5, 2012 11:09 AM MST reply actions
I appreciate your efforts to take the con side on this one, but when the best defense you can mount is “someone else might be worse”, you’re grasping at straws.
The “who else besides Tambo can we get” and “What if we get someone worse” is beginning to permeate the discussions on message boards and twitter, though. Honestly, I don’t understand it. Since 2006, this management team has never been in the top half of the league, and they’ve been bottom third 5 times, bottom fifth 4 times.
If this team was an actual, non-government protected monopoly business, management would have been sacked years ago.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Well, sure, but it’s not – the draft protects them. The question is, have they learned from some of their mistakes? The Brodziak trade really does stick out as atrocious talent management – every team is going to have a guy that they waived or somehow missed the boat on, but given the team’s lack of depth at that position, I’m not sure how they made that deal.
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by Triumph44 on Feb 6, 2012 8:32 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Belanger
I don’t think belanger was a bad signing. He had consistent numbers before this year. How was Tambo to know Belanger would forget how to score this year. Also, Belanger was brought here mainly to kill penalties and win face-offs, two areas the oilers were horrible in last year. And I’d have to say he has helped in those areas.
Belanger was a good signing that hasn’t quite worked out. Still a good signing (if three years too late).
Meanwhile, Kyle Brodziak has a 36% ZS, one of the few Wild with a positive Adj. Corsi, his 113 shots would be 4th on the Oilers, he’s 50% on the dot, and oh yeah, he’s playing the toughs.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Don’t talk to me about that Glencross – Brodziak – Stortini line. They made me happy for a while. Happier than any man should be made by a fourth line. It couldn’t last. Well, actually, it probably could of. All at very reasonable prices.
by Yeti# on Feb 5, 2012 2:49 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
And to think we kept Stortini the longest out of those three players.
Great management.
by DarrenV on Feb 6, 2012 9:06 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Better the devil you know? That’s the argument here?? Maybe you’re right. But if we’re doomed to have a devil, I like my devils with a little bit more verve, confidence and pizazz. More Al Paccino and less Tom Hanks.
Mike Milbury is eminently available.
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 5, 2012 3:23 PM MST up reply actions
I completely reject the notion that GM talent is hard to find. It’s only marginally difficult if you insist on staying within the old boys’ club. Even then it’s not that hard – several front offices have multiple former GMs.
by RiversQ on Feb 5, 2012 3:30 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions 1 recs
Dave Nonis and Rick Dudley are possibles. Neil Smith is looking for work. Felton out of nashville maybe? Patrick Roy would be entertaining if nothing else. I would roll the dice on any of them rather than another term with Tambo.
What about Jarmo Kekäläinen, Jokerit’s current GM? He has some NHL front-office experience with St. Louis and Ottawa, in addition to his SM-Liiga gig. And hey, he’s Finnish!
Full disclosure: I never would have thought of the guy had his name not come up in an article on Habs Eyes on the Prize speculating about him as a possible future Canadiens’ GM.
I think Dave Nonis would be a really good choice. I think he helped to build a strong team in Vancouver, was generally patient, and then got booted just as the cap opened up for him. Gillis has been good there too, but Nonis got a raw deal.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 5, 2012 5:13 PM MST up reply actions
I think you guys might want to just take a brief hiatus from ex-Canucks.
by Passive Voice on Feb 5, 2012 10:09 PM MST up reply actions
If GM talent better than Tambellini is difficult to find (I don’t think it is), then this might be reasonable if you needed to pay Tambellini to not be around. But with his contract up, there’s no reason not to try someone else. All of the structural advantages you mention will be there for the new guy too. Yeah, he might be worse, but he could also be much better. Why stick with bad if you know it’s bad?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 5, 2012 4:06 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think it’s difficult to find. I do think that Darryl Katz, or whoever Katz hired as team president or whatever, would have a lot of trouble locating it.
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by Triumph44 on Feb 6, 2012 8:23 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Ignoring the (probably unnecessarily) painful route Tamblowe took to get to this point....
I will say that the Oilers appear to be in far better shape than, say, Tampa Bay or Columbus. Though I suppose that’s a pretty fucking low bar to clear.
I will say that the Oilers appear to be in far better shape than, say, Tampa Bay or Columbus.
“Far better”? Not sure about that. And think how much better shape Tampa would be in if Paul Ranger didn’t flake out.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Okay.....
So you do have a point….however Tambellini is pretty incompetent, aside from all those young players acquired from the draft. The Oilers need defense and goaltending. Kabbi is worthless and is overpaid. Dubnyk is up and down and is not consistent. I think we have players who can score goals, but need to get rid of some of the veterans. One player that comes to mind is Shawn Horcoff. He is paid too much and just is not performing like he should. Hemsky has been plagued by injuries, so let’s see what he can do when he is healthy. Smyth is a veteran presence but is past his prime, we can do better. We need a top quality front line center who can score and win faceoffs. Ryan Whitney would be a good defenseman if he was not so injury- prone. I think the team is playing much better lately, but can they keep it up? lConsistency is so important; the Oilers were good at the start of the season and then fell apart. I’m sure injuries played a large part in their fall from the top.
Can't seem to reply right now, but...
“Far better” might be overstating it. But shit, I hate the situation those two teams are in.
Tampa’s got ~26.5m committed in cap space (about 25 in real dollars) to Lecavalier (then 34), St. Louis (39), Malone (34), Ohlund (38) and Brewer (35) three years from now.
The Beej has 35m in cap tied up three years on in seven players (Carter, Nash, Umberger, Tyutin, Wisniewski,Vermette, Methot) who are at least much closer to their prime years, but still, I think, not on aggregate worth 35m. The first five are on the books for 27m five years from now.
I just feel like they’ve got a tonne of obligations that won’t obviously be worth their salaries, a long time into the future.
The Oil have some really shitty contracts, no doubt, but the only player on the books in three years is Horcoff.
Yeah, Tampa’s still got to clear out some of the mistakes of the Koules/Barrie/Lawton era. I still think a Lecavalier/Gomez swap could work for both sides depending on what else is thrown in, that would help a great deal.
I am also not sure that Tampa really has a pipeline of prospects coming behind Stamkos and Hedman. I know Connolly’s quite young but he did not impress me so far – call his upside something like Nathan Horton, certainly a nice thing to have, but not the sort of thing that keeps you at the top of the Conference.
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