Top 25 Under 25 - Winter 2012 - Final Rankings

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2012 11:30 AM MST in Prospects

We're now through the fifth installment of the Top 25 Under 25, and in just two and a half years, I know that I've learned some pretty valuable things. I've learned that it's too easy to get excited about how well a guy is performing in the CHL, that even a team like the Oilers which has been stockpiling high picks can look awfully suspect once you move out of the top five or ten guys, and that generally respectable colleagues can hold very different views on which of these prospects deserves a higher ranking. We'll take a look at everyone's complete list after the jump.

The chart below shows each writer's individual rankings as well as the overall list. With seven us making the rankings, it's much easier to move around on the former than the latter, and in fact, the top seven is exactly the same overall as it was last time even though each and every individual made some changes. All 44 players under consideration are listed, and the columns are sortable; just click on the header row that you'd like to see and you're ready to go.

Overall	Player	Ben	Bruce	DB	Derek	Jon	Ryan	Scott
1	Taylor Hall	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	3	2	3	3	2	3	2
3	Jordan Eberle	4	3	2	6	3	2	3
4	Sam Gagner	2	4	4	2	4	4	4
5	Magnus Paajarvi	6	6	5	5	5	6	5
6	Jeff Petry	5	5	10	4	6	5	6
7	Linus Omark	9	11	6	7	7	7	7
8	Oscar Klefbom	7	9	9	9	8	8	8
9	Teemu Hartikainen	12	8	7	11	9	9	9
10	Anton Lander	14	7	8	10	12	11	11
11	Martin Marincin	10	10	15	12	13	12	10
12	Tyler Pitlick	16	12	18	8	15	10	16
13	Colten Teubert	18	13	12	16	11	14	13
14	David Musil	17	14	19	14	10	13	14
15	Theo Peckham	8	16	11	20	16	17	17
16	Curtis Hamilton	11	17	21	17	14	15	15
17	Dillon Simpson	23	26	20	13	18	16	12
18	Tyler Bunz	19	15	13	26	17	26	24
19	Olivier Roy	15	20	17	21	23	27	25
20	Tobias Rieder	20	19	30	18	20	20	23
21	Brandon Davidson	29	18	16	23	27	18	21
22	Alex Plante	21	22	14	32	25	24	22
23	Kyle Bigos	22	27	25	15	29	23	20
24	Jeremie Blain	24	25	26	22	28	22	18
25	Martin Gernat	31	23	22	33	19	19	19
26	Taylor Fedun	30	24	24	19	21	21	29
27	Taylor Chorney	13	31	23	30	33	30	30
28	Ryan Martindale	25	37	27	29	26	25	26
29	Ryan O'Marra	26	21	42	42	22	31	34
30	Milan Kytnar	32	34	29	31	32	34	31
31	Samu Perhonen	39	36	31	37	24	28	28
32	Philippe Cornet	40	38	28	27	31	36	32
33	Antti Tyrvainen	33	40	33	43	30	29	27
34	Chris VandeVelde	27	30	43	28	35	38	35
35	Frans Tuohimaa	35	35	34	25	34	37	37
36	Toni Rajala	34	39	35	24	38	32	36
37	Drew Czerwonka	41	29	36	36	36	33	33
38	Kristians Pelss	37	33	37	40	37	35	38
39	Travis Ewanyk	36	28	39	39	41	40	41
40	Johan Motin	28	41	32	38	42	42	42
41	Mark Arcobello	42	32	40	35	39	39	39
42	Kellen Jones	38	42	38	41	40	41	40
43	Alexander Bumagin	44	44	41	34	43	43	44
44	Cameron Abney	43	43	44	44	44	44	43

As always, we're most interested in hearing about where you think we went wrong, and to get that conversation started, let's look at each ranker's unique selections:

Ben: I'm convinced that having Taylor Chorney at #13 is more Ben making a point about everyone ranked below Chorney than it is Ben making a point about Chorney himself. Ben thinks the Oilers' prospects suck. There's no other explanation. Other notables: Theo Peckham at #8; Anton Lander at #14; Johan Motin at #28.

Bruce: If you're a marginal prospect, the key to success in Bruce's eyes is playing in the WHL where it's easy for him to get some look-sees in order to justify liking you. Bruce is a good person. He likes people. So just give him a reason. Travis Ewanyk did it. Drew Czerwonka did it. But Dillon Simpson went to college, so Bruce showed him the error of his ways by knocking him all the way down to #26. Other notables: Linus Omark at #11; Ryan O'Marra at #21; Mark Arcobello at #32.

DB: As a new member to our group, I appreciate the way that DB went out of his way to piss Derek off by ranking Chris VandeVelde at #43. Good work. Other notables: Jeff Petry at #10; Alex Plante at #14; Tobias Rieder at #30.

Derek: Derek has his favorites, but sometimes I think he likes to be contrary for the hell of it. How else to explain Alexander Bumagin's surge up the rankings? After placing him in 47th (of 48) last time, Bumagin clocks in at #34 this time. What changed? Derek's disdain for you if your favorite prospect is ranked at #35 or lower. Other notables: Toni Rajala at #24; Frans Tuohimaa at #25; Alex Plante at #32.

Jon: When it comes to goalies, it's awfully hard to get a read on how good they are at a young age. Jonathan's ranking of Samu Perhonen at #24 suggests that draft position is a pretty major part of his decision-making process. Other notables: David Musil at #10; Ryan O'Marra at #22; Taylor Chorney at #33.

Ryan: It's his first time writing for the Top 25, and he knows that all the hip kids hate goalies, so he made sure to rank the two best goalies in the system lower than everybody else. Cool factor = 10. Other notables: Nope, it's pretty much just the goalies.

Scott: My rankings are all excellent. I don't know why people dislike Jeremie Blain so much all of a sudden or why Antti Tyrvainen isn't regarded as having real NHL potential, or why Derek and I are the only ones who really believe in Dillon Simpson. These people are crazy.

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Comments

I stand by Hall at #1 and Abney at #44, but between them there are a few changes I would make if I was to do this all over again today.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Feb 21, 2012 11:41 AM MST reply actions

Yes – Abney got the biggest score by far. That means he won, right?!

by Yeti# on Feb 21, 2012 11:43 AM MST reply actions

I don’t know why people dislike Jeremie Blain so much

Perhaps people think he’s too busy improving cross-community relations to really knuckle down and focus on his hockey?

Great summary write up, BTW. I loved the pithy remarks about your less than reputable co-authors.

by Yeti# on Feb 21, 2012 11:48 AM MST reply actions

Well, I think you all did terrible. If you rank the prospects from youngest to oldest, you will instantly see who needs to be cut.

Great series, though, so thanks for that! Interesting that Massey was the only one to rate Theo Peckham in the top ten. I can only imagine this is because Ben likes truculence. (Full disclosure: I also like Peckham, but it’s been a bit of a disappointing year for the guy.)

by eddy the lip on Feb 21, 2012 12:10 PM MST reply actions

Overall, I find it interesting that Arcobello is so low since he seems to be having a pretty good season in OKC and to be well-trusted by Nelson, same goes to Cornet with his goal scoring (yes, I recognize his shooting percentage is very high). The two goalies (Bunz and Roy) seem a bit low based on their good seasons as well, but I know people are wary about being too keen on goaltenders. I would have Fedun higher but I am biased because if he wasn’t injured I think he would already be a regular on the blue line with this current group.

For the other way, I am not too sold on Marcinin, though I have only seen him play a handful of times, but in those limited viewings his positioning and footwork just seemed way out of wack. I haven’t liked Teubert but I saw him when he’s been in over his head, and I would swap Hamilton and Pitlick based on what I’ve read about them this year. I really don’t like Martindale and would drop him more, though if asked to defend that position I would probably not be able to do so well.

by dessert1111 on Feb 21, 2012 1:05 PM MST reply actions

The problem with ranking Fedun so high based on pre-season is that a lot of guys look fantastic in camp and during the exhibition games. There’s a guy on every team in the league who looks like they are playing above and beyond.

Reality then sets in and they find themselves back in the minors halfway through October. Not saying this was going to happen with Fedun, but it’s important to take it into consideration.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 21, 2012 10:14 PM MST up reply actions

Is Alex Bumagin still Oilers property? I can’t imagine how; he was drafted six years ago and as far as I can tell, never signed a contract. He’s certainly never left Russia.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Feb 21, 2012 1:15 PM MST reply actions

I thought the lack of a transfer agreement and a few other things meant there wasn’t the same window with Russian/KHL draftees that there was with guys from other leagues. That is, SEL players, for example, need to be signed within 2 years or whatever, but Russian guys are team property till UFA age. Emelin was what, 24 when the Habs finally got him signed?

by despisethesun on Feb 21, 2012 1:43 PM MST up reply actions

I think this is right. In the absence of a transfer agreement, he remains Oiler property if he wants to come to the NHL. Though it’s not exactly a pressing issue.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2012 2:37 PM MST up reply actions

He would be better than a couple of Oilers on the roster right now.

Okay, more than a couple.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 21, 2012 2:45 PM MST up reply actions

And he’s precisely as likely to play in the NHL as I am.

Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.

by Benjamin Massey on Feb 23, 2012 4:29 PM MST up reply actions

I am not sure I agree with Derek putting Eberle down to #6. I am not sure what his reasoning is for that but I don’t think he is any lower than #4. On the other side he had Pitlick at #8. Again I wouldn’t agree and I am not sure on his reasoning.

On the other side I did agree with Bruce putting Linus down at 11. He has incredible talent but I am not sure if he has the size or desire to bring it to the ice every night.

There are a few others that I would question but for the most part I think the final list is fairly accurate.

by EclecticBlogs on Feb 21, 2012 1:23 PM MST reply actions

Derek likes average Americans better than clutch Canadians.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 21, 2012 2:33 PM MST up reply actions

. I am not sure what his reasoning is for that

http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/2/18/2808008/jordan-eberle-3-in-the-copper-blue-top-25-edmonton-oilers-under-25#92391771

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 21, 2012 2:38 PM MST up reply actions

On the other side he had Pitlick at #8.

If we’d known the QoC / QoT data from Scott’s article prior to the voting, I think this would be much different.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 21, 2012 2:40 PM MST up reply actions

Derek had Pitlick ahead of Eberle a couple of rankings ago. It seems that he’s like Tambellini in that he takes his time in his evaluations and altering his opinions. The gap in their rankings will likely to continue to slowly widen.

by Double DD on Feb 21, 2012 4:49 PM MST up reply actions

The most optimistic opinions are Ben’s of Chorney, Ben’s of Motin, Derek’s of Rajala, Bruce’s of Ewanyk, and Derek’s of Tuohimaa.

The most pessimistic are Derek’s and DB’s of O’Marra, Derek’s of Plante, Derek’s of Tyrvainen, and DB’s of Rieder.

By standard deviation, Derek is the most contrary. Scott’s the least.

by Passive Voice on Feb 21, 2012 1:51 PM MST reply actions

One thing that needs to be clarified is that there wasn’t a clear cut definition of what we are ranking them on.

Is it the best player right now? If so, O’Marra moves up my list quite a bit.

I based my rankings on a few things, including current ability relative to age and current league, and potential NHL impact.

For instance, O’Marra would probably do better in the NHL right now than Dillon SImpson. That being said Simpson is significantly younger and is doing some pretty good things against his peers in the NCAA. O’Marra is a 24 year old who has established himself as a bottom 6 player in the AHL. O’Marra’s potential NHL impact is probably going to be that of 4th liner (which should be pretty easily replaced), maybe bottom 6er at best. Simpson on the other hand could potentially be much better than that, so I had him ranked much higher accordingly.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 21, 2012 2:40 PM MST up reply actions

Bumagin clocks in at #34 this time. What changed? Derek’s disdain for you if your favorite prospect is ranked at #35 or lower

Bumagin is a regular in the second-best league in the world. Look at what I’ve got ranked behind him. Yeeeeesh.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 21, 2012 2:44 PM MST reply actions

So is Fedor Fedorov…

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 21, 2012 3:03 PM MST up reply actions

And he’s better than at least the bottom 10 on this list.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 21, 2012 3:09 PM MST up reply actions

This was generally my logic when we did the EOTP rankings with Emelin on them (our first rankings, he was 25 last summer when we re-did them), and my continuing insistence on keeping Maxim Trunev up higher than everyone else as well. I even adjust these guys down in my head based on them being outside the team’s control…. and still end up putting them higher than everyone else.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Feb 22, 2012 10:47 AM MST up reply actions

To re-raise a goof I noticed before, SBN has five of these guys listed as Jets still: Rieder, Gernat, Perhonen, Tuohimaa, and Klefbom. And they still have Chorney with the Blues, even though we re-claimed him on waivers months ago.

by Doogie2K on Feb 22, 2012 10:47 AM MST reply actions

Bruce: If you’re a marginal prospect, the key to success in Bruce’s eyes is playing in the WHL where it’s easy for him to get some look-sees in order to justify liking you. Bruce is a good person. He likes people. So just give him a reason. Travis Ewanyk did it. Drew Czerwonka did it. But Dillon Simpson went to college, so Bruce showed him the error of his ways by knocking him all the way down to #26.

Funny example you choose. I’ve never met Travis Ewanyk, and haven’t had one chance to see him play since Oilers drafted him. Last year I saw him, was moderately impressed but had no reason to pay any special attention to him. Dillon Simpson on the other hand I did meet, did an interview at Hockey Canada’s summer camp, and like him quite a bit. Very nice kid. But that and five bucks ~~will~~ might buy you the specialty beverage of your choice at Starbucks.

Then there’s this:

C&B ranker ….. | Simpson | Ewanyk |
-————————————————————————
Ben…………………….. | 23 | 36 |
DB ……………………… | 20 | 39 |
Derek ………………….. | 13 | 39 |
Jon …………………….. | 18 | 41 |
Ryan …………………… | 16 | 40 |
Scott …………………… | 12 | 41 |
Bruce ………………….. | 26 | 28 |
-—————————————————————
Oilers …….. 4th round #92 | 3rd round #74 |

When it comes to 18-year-olds that have just been picked, I place a fair bit of value in their draft pedigree, how the organization prioritized them on draft day … all of eight months ago now. I devalued Ewanyk a tad due to his having lost the current season-to-date to injury. But I sure in the hell can’t justify having him 20 or 25 or 29 (!!) rungs lower in the organizational ladder than the guy they picked after him.

Call it an admission of weakness, but on the newly-drafted I place considerably more value in Stu MacGregor’s opinion than I do my own.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2012 7:59 PM MST reply actions

If Tobias Rieder were in the WHL, you’d have him in the top 5

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 22, 2012 8:47 PM MST up reply actions

If Tobias Rieder were in the NCAA, you’d have him in the top 5.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 23, 2012 10:52 AM MST up reply actions

If he were Finnish and playing in the NCAA, Derek would have him at #1.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Feb 23, 2012 1:50 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

Draft pedigree matters, but it’s not the only thing that matters. Ewanyk looked like a truly terrible pick to me on draft day, mostly because the guy had almost zero offense in the WHL. Add a serious injury that’s cost him the season to date and I think he belongs close to the bottom of the list (which seems to be the consensus). It’s similar reasoning that had me (and others) putting Abney at the bottom of the list in the Winter 2010 edition despite his being a top 100 selection.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 22, 2012 9:29 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah, it’s almost like a yearly tradition where the Oilers go up to the podium in round #3 and make a completely ridiculous pick.

Not sure what they were picking Ewanyk on, but he’s got no offense and he’s missing a season and that’s going to hurt his org. ranking.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 22, 2012 11:01 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah, I like totally forgot that Ewanyk = Abney. Identical players, both played for the Oil Kings, both played in the U-17 and U-18 tourneys … what? wait!

Ewanyk scored more goals last year than Abney mustered in his entire 180-game WHL career, but yeah, they were separated at birth.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 23, 2012 10:58 AM MST up reply actions

I do agree about the effect of the lost season (if not to the same degree as you guys), which is one reason I ranked Ewanyk below later 2011 picks like Rieder, Gernat and Simpson. But I’m nowhere close to writing him off.

He’s due to return soon, will be interesting to get a good look at him. Of course that will bias me permanently, but oh well.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 23, 2012 11:02 AM MST up reply actions

I know that I’m needling you (and others) above, but there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with being “biased” by viewing guys. It can hurt but it can also be very helpful. Not seeing guys is the same mix of good and bad.

Back to Ewanyk, he’s clearly better than Abney, but that doesn’t say a whole lot. You can be a lot better than Abney and still be a terrible pick. That they were really poor picks at that stage of the draft is what makes them similar, not what they’re able to do on the ice.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 23, 2012 11:11 AM MST up reply actions

My tongue was firmly in my cheek there, I assure you. I only wish that I could personally track all of the prospects in Oilers’ systems beyond that significant fraction that come through my neck of the woods. Alas both my time and my budget are my own, so Calgary is pretty much my outer marker.

The price that I pay is that because of these limitations my coverage is by necessity, unbalanced. But you knew that already!

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 23, 2012 3:36 PM MST up reply actions

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