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Tyler Bunz - #18 in The Copper & Blue's Top 25 Under 25

Goaltender's development curve, via Wikimedia Commons by Oliver Álvarez, by Creative Commons Attribution license.

If nobody else is going to say it, I will.

I hate goalies.

I've always hated goalies. I played goal in road hockey, but even that was just semi-organized self-loathing. My very first article on The Copper & Blue was actually about goalies and why they piss me off. Goalies are the nemeses of all humanity. Goalies make children cry and grown men cry louder. Goalies are the enemy.

I'm not just saying this because the Edmonton Oilers employ Nikolai Khabibulin, either. Heck, Khabibulin got a shutout last night in Toronto, which isn't exactly the hardest thing in the world but all the same. I just really, really resent goalies. They're unpredictable, they're wild, they're expensive, and after one's finished with you all you have left is a headache and a lottery pick. Trusting a goalie is like drinking $5 bottles of whiskey: you might feel good at first but it will absolutely come back to haunt you when you start offering cops a billion dollars not to arrest you.

That's Ben Massey's seminal work on goaltenders, the most insightful look into the position ever published. Goaltender development is a bizarre concept that defies every theorized law of spacetime ever set forth. Some goalies are drafted in the top 10 and completely fall apart. Others blow away the league and then fall off of the face of the earth. Others win the Calder and then drag their team to the bottom of the league and cost people their jobs. And of course there are goalies that decide to play like the premier generational talent, but only after they turn 28 and only after they're traded for Eric Daze.

I'm on record as comparing the process of developing goaltenders to alchemy and I stand by that. Scott demonstrated that true goaltender development talent is a rare and fleeting thing, regardless of the newly-minuted cottage industry of goaltender evaluation and coaching. Teams should fire their goaltender coaches and scouts and save some money - the results wouldn't change. Seriously.

Star-divide

Having said all that, I'm apparently supposed to write about Tyler Bunz, our #18 prospect in the winter installment of the Top 25 Under 25. This is Bunz' first appearance in the Top 25, though he's improved on each list since being drafted, moving from 36 in July 2010, to 28 in February 2011, to 27 in July 2011 and finally to #18. Is Bunz worthy of such a large jump?

Rank Player DOB Drafted Year Ben
Bruce
DB Derek Jon Ryan Scott
18 Tyler Bunz 02/11/92
121 2010
19 15 13 26 17 26 24


Previous Rank: 27

Ben moved Bunz up 7 spots, Bruce 2, Jon 6, Scott 6. Bunz was catapulted into the top 20 by new panelist dawgbone, who ranked him the highest amongst all of us at 13 and goalie-hater me, who raised him 15 spots to 26.

Why is Bunz getting so much love? dawgbone says it's because of incremental improvements:

He’s doing exactly what you want him to do… get better every year. He’s already one of the best goalies in the WHL and has done nothing but improve. He’s also done significantly better than his backups which kind of demonstrates that it’s not just the team/system he plays behind.


GP WHL Rk
MIN WHL Rk
GA SV WHL Rk SV% WHL Rk
2008 - Tyler Bunz 22 N/A 1007 N/A 58 453 N/A .886 N/A
2009 - Tyler Bunz 57 3214 3214 6 156 1380 8 .898 22
2010 - Tyler Bunz 56 3350 3350 7 138 1574 9 .919 2
2011 - Tyler Bunz 47 2775 2775 1 122 1397 2 .920 3

His WHL numbers show that year-over-year improvement. He's now one of the very best goaltenders in the WHL, which explains why Oilers' fans have so much confidence in him. Why should they be concerned?

Taylor Dakers, Thomas Heemskerk, Leland Irving, Chet Pickard, Justin Pogge. Since 2005-06, that's the group of goalies who have posted the same or similar numbers in the WHL at the same age.

Alchemy.

Comment 11 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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This is fantastic. I now think my ranking of 26 is far too high.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Feb 2, 2012 1:49 PM MST reply actions  

Maybe you haters should just follow basketball, where goaltending is illegal.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 2, 2012 2:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Hey, another young Canadian goalie. That should be enough of a red flag right there.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Feb 2, 2012 2:02 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

Justin Pogge is the next big thing though!

Crap, it’s not 2006 anymore is it?

by DarrenV on Feb 2, 2012 2:23 PM MST reply actions  

Justin Pogge was made by the team he played behind. Compare his numbers in PG to his numbers in Calgary. Even granting that PG’s bounced between mediocre and terrible forever, that’s something. Those Calgary teams were very strong – though not as strong as the ones that followed on in 2008, 2009, and 2010 – and probably made Pogge look better than he was.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Feb 2, 2012 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Oh I’m aware. Pogge is the best example because I remember my brother bemoaning that the Leafs had such great goaltending prospect back then. It was hilarous.

by DarrenV on Feb 2, 2012 4:37 PM MST up reply actions  

They did… then they traded Rask.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 2, 2012 8:14 PM MST up reply actions   2 recs

Bingo. Even as a massive Hitmen homer, I knew Rask was the better prospect. I didn’t quite realize that Pogge was as mediocre as he was, but I knew he wasn’t the Leafs’ best goalie prospect.

(Waits for someone to link to an old blog comment section where I say the opposite, and I’ve blocked it from my memory.)

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Feb 3, 2012 11:57 AM MST up reply actions  

If developing goalies is alchemy, then seen-him-good is witchcraft. No matter, I’ll go there anyway.

I’ve seen Bunz play in Victoria (4-2 win), Edmonton (3-0 loss with an ENG) and Red Deer (3-2 OT win) this year, and he is one of Medicine Hat’s two most important players along with Emerson Etem. The Tigers are a greatly weakened squad this year after losing Linden Vey, Tyler Pitlick, Wacey Hamilton and several d-men, yet they remain a contender or at least a very respectable squad. To my eye they are not a strong defensive squad; I note Bunz’s SA/60 has crept up from 31 to 33 this year, which last time I looked was easily the highest of anybody in the top ten in the major categories.

He’s a good puckhandler at this point, something the Oilers haven’’t had in a long time. I’ll admit that’ a personal bias, similar to how I’ll always prefer a pitcher who can field his position. If he can lay down a bunt, so much the better. Speaking of moving the runners, WHL just tweeted that Bunz has five assists in each of the past two seasons.

Don’t want to overstate his case. He’s a long shot, in with a chance among other long shots. But there are things to like about his game.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 2, 2012 5:04 PM MST reply actions  

I’ll second that general observation. In their first three games, the Tigers outscored the Hitmen 12-2, and Bunz was outstanding in both games I saw at the ’Dome. Made several great saves on plays where he was hung out to dry.

(For that matter, I thought he was one of the stars of the Tigers’ second-round loss to Calgary two years ago, along with Etem. I watched all six games, and thought he got hung out to dry way too often by his teammates. Seems to be a running theme.)

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Feb 3, 2012 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

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