Jordan Eberle - #3 in The Copper & Blue's Top 25 Under 25

by ryanbatty on Feb 18, 2012 12:30 PM MST in Prospects

Jordan Eberle's second season has been a lot of fun to watch. He not only leads the Oilers in goals, assists, and points but he's among the NHL leaders in those categories as well. As of this morning Eberle's 25 goals place him in a tenth place tie league wide and with 55 points he's tied for eleventh, just a single point out of the top ten. After finishing his rookie season with 43 points, good for tops on last year's version of the Oilers, Eberle hasn't missed a beat in his sophomore season.

Eberle has certainly benefitted this season from Tom Renney's decision to shelter the Chosen Line with generous zone starts and second tier competition on an almost nightly basis, not to mention a shooting percentage mere decimal points below 20%, but to his credit he's excelled in that role. You can argue that his numbers are inflated but his skills are undeniable and he looks like he will be a very good NHL player for a very long time.

Rank	Player	DOB	Drafted	Year	Ben	Bruce	DB	Derek	Jon	Ryan	Scott
3	Jordan Eberle	1990-05-15	22	2008	4	3	2	6	3	2	3

Previous Rank: 3

Some nights it's not a lot of fun to be an Oilers fan as they lose game after game after game but when Eberle gets the puck you can't help but get excited. He can shoot. He can pass. He can make veteran NHL defenders look silly as he moves around them. That skill set is why he ranks at number three in our Top 25 Under 25.

With the exception of Derek everyone ranked Eberle within a spot of his overall rank with DB and I ranking him higher than the rest of the group. And although he still has him ranked outside of the top five Derek did move Eberle up a spot from seventh last time; his thoughts on Eberle:

I cede all points about skill, ability and scoring. But Eberle, more than any of the THE YOUNG GUNZ1, has been a liability defensively and the guys I've ranked above him have demonstrated a greater propensity to play in their own zone.

I won't argue that Eberle, or any of the others on the Chosen Line, need to be better at the Oilers end of the ice. But as a winger Eberle's responsibilities in the defensive zone are lighter than they would be if he were playing centre so that improvement should be easier for him. To my eye I think he's demonstrated the ability to play in his own end and it's something that just needs more time to come around.

So what type of player can we expect Eberle to be? I think he can be a consistent 65-70 point player. He will almost certainly surpass those numbers this season but I don't think we should be expecting him to repeat this performance on a yearly basis or project his future based on this season's stats. His PDO sits at 1049 right now, the eighth highest number among NHL forwards this season, so sooner or later this run of good luck is going to come to an end. But even when that does happen we're still going to be left with a very good hockey player.

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Derek, how do you see Eberle being more liability defensively than Hall or Gagner?

by Roman_Pilgrim on Feb 18, 2012 12:46 PM MST reply actions

I won’t argue that Eberle, or any of the others on the Chosen Line, need to be better at the Oilers end of the ice. But as a winger Eberle’s responsibilities in the defensive zone are lighter than they would be if he were playing centre so that improvement should be easier for him. To my eye I think he’s demonstrated the ability to play in his own end and it’s something that just needs more time to come around.

Remember, Eberle is just 1 year younger than Gagner. He’s bleeding chances against right now worse than any other Oiler. He was 2nd worst on the team last season. Yeah, he’ll get better, but he has to catch the core crew.

So what type of player can we expect Eberle to be? I think he can be a consistent 65-70 point player. He will almost certainly surpass those numbers this season but I don’t think we should be expecting him to repeat this performance on a yearly basis or project his future based on this season’s stats. His PDO sits at 1049 right now, the eighth highest number among NHL forwards this season, sooner or later this run of good luck is going to come to an end. But even when that does happen we’re still going to be left with a very good hockey player.

Dellow has already pointed out the crazy luck Eberle is riding right now.

Walk Eberle’s own shooting percentage, his on-ice shooting percentage and his IPP back to sustainable levels and he’s somewhere between 30-35 point player right now, give or take a few.

Remember, Eberle’s possession numbers aren’t tracking better than Gagner’s at the same age – they’re worse, albeit slightly, but they’re worse.

And, as Ryan says:

But as a winger Eberle’s responsibilities in the defensive zone are lighter than they would be if he were playing centre

Gagner is just a year older, covering more defensive responsibility as a center and is better in his own end.

So if we clear the offensive luck out of the equation, what do we have left? A kid that’s scoring in the same range as the rest of the core group, but is behind that group defensively, hence he’s rated behind that group.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 12:58 PM MST reply actions

Walk Eberle’s own shooting percentage, his on-ice shooting percentage and his IPP back to sustainable levels and he’s somewhere between 30-35 point player right now, give or take a few.

I understand that Eberle is shooting the lights out right now, but expecting every player to regress to average is also wrong.

There are players at each end of the bell curve to create the average and some, like Stamkos have sustain over 15%

Stamkos’s rookie year he shot 12.7%, but then has had seasons of 17.2%, 16.5% and this is a ridiculous 19.5%.

We can’t be sure that Eberle is one these, but we can’t demand that he will simply shoot near NHL average either.

Scott pointed out in Tyler’s thread that Eberle also had a high IPP last year. Not ridiculous like this year, but still high.

Perhaps he’s just one of those players who lives on the right side of the curve.

I just think its far too early in his career to know exactly what Eberle will be long term.

While I don’t think he’s a 70pt player, I don’t think he’s a 35pt player either.

Some players are better at some things than other players.

Roenick put up a career 15.3% in the dead puck era.

Its not unheard of.

by Woodguy on Feb 18, 2012 1:26 PM MST up reply actions

I do think that we could be looking at a guy who beats up the percentages a little. Not to the extent of this season, of course, but I’d actually be surprised if he wasn’t better than average for IPP, and the shooting percentage info we’ve got from other leagues suggests that he’s probably better than average in that category as well. He scored 9 goals on 44 shots in the AHL (20%), and while we don’t have the shots information for the WHL, we do for the QMJHL where, from 2006-07 to 2009-10 there were just thirty player seasons that saw a player hit at least four shots per game during the regular season; only two players made the list twice. Even if we estimate that Eberle averaged four shots per game for his entire junior career (and if that’s true, it’s a major plus in its own right) that still leaves him shooting just over 15% in the WHL on just over 1,000 shots.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 18, 2012 2:04 PM MST up reply actions

With the way you leave this comment, I’m not sure if you believe he’s a 15% shooter or not.

But he shot 11% last year, why we tossing those numbers out?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 3:06 PM MST up reply actions

I wouldn’t toss those numbers out. Keeping them in makes sense, but it is the lowest data point we have. As for where Eberle fits, I think he was very likely 15% or better in junior, but 15% seems awfully high for the NHL. Not impossible, but that’s pretty much the outer marker. If I were to estimate his true talent at this point, I’d just say that it’s very likely to be better than the average forward.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 18, 2012 7:17 PM MST up reply actions

but it is the lowest data point we have.

You just broke my brain.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 19, 2012 7:28 AM MST up reply actions

Because it’s not? I’m confused.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 19, 2012 3:30 PM MST up reply actions

While I don’t think he’s a 70pt player, I don’t think he’s a 35pt player either.

You misunderstand me. He’s not a 35/82 player. He’s a 35/52 player.

I understand that Eberle is shooting the lights out right now, but expecting every player to regress to average is also wrong.

If we’re trying to predict what the player is and will be, are we better off assuming that he’s more in line with the rest of the league or he’s going to be one of the extraordinary players? We can root for extraordinary, sure, but rooting isn’t the same as trying to figure it out.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 2:59 PM MST up reply actions

You misunderstand me. He’s not a 35/82 player. He’s a 35/52 player.

Ahhh, Got it.

If we’re trying to predict what the player is and will be, are we better off assuming that he’s more in line with the rest of the league or he’s going to be one of the extraordinary players?

I understand that and don’t suggest predicting him to be an extraordinary player.

Now that I see I missed the 35/52, the rest isn’t as harsh.

We also have to predict his future match ups, and if he starts playing on a line that is constantly facing 1st pairing D, he might not just regress, but fall off a cliff.

by Woodguy on Feb 18, 2012 3:27 PM MST up reply actions

I’d be excited just because 35/52 is .67 and an improvement on last season and still a year or two to add on to that.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 3:44 PM MST up reply actions

Perhaps his PDO indicates temporary good luck, but there is a possibility that it might be his normal PDO. There are several NHL’ers with PDO averages above 1000 that do not regress to the mean. Eberle’s sample size is small so it is difficult to tell right now. I’m sure that his PDO (along with all the other players) from the previous season was impacted by poor goaltending.

Eberle’s goal and point totals seem to be based more on skill than luck imo. Time will tell if this is true.

by gvblackhawk on Feb 18, 2012 3:40 PM MST up reply actions

Eberle’s sample size is small so it is difficult to tell right now.

His PDO last season (in a larger sample size) was 975. There are several NHL’ers with PDO averages below 1000 that do not regress to the mean. Perhaps last season’s PDO indicates temporary bad luck, but there is a possibility that it might be his normal PDO.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 3:43 PM MST up reply actions

I suppose that might be true but I would bet otherwise. The dynamic duo’s SV% last year killed everyone on the team. Of course, I would be more confident making claims of good or bad luck with another season under his belt, especially if he is sustaining his offensive production with more TOI against the toughs.

by gvblackhawk on Feb 18, 2012 3:56 PM MST up reply actions

I suppose that might be true but I would bet otherwise.

Because you hope it so?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 4:14 PM MST up reply actions

Yes — a beacon of hope in this nebulous rebuild. Gotta stay strong.

by gvblackhawk on Feb 18, 2012 6:36 PM MST up reply actions

Or that he was a rookie?

by gcw_rocks on Feb 19, 2012 6:57 AM MST up reply actions

The vision he has to score goals would rank him above the other young players, in my opinion, and he has shown some flashes of prowess on the back check (a couple games ago that play he made to make take-away near mid-ice because a defender made an ill-advised pinch, probably Barker). Even though his percentages will come back to earth, I think those beautiful goals and plays he makes are a testament to his skills that I don’t see to the same extent in the other players. Just look at how many highlight reel beauties he has when are you asking yourself “how in the world did he manage to do that?”.

by dessert1111 on Feb 18, 2012 1:04 PM MST reply actions

I think Eberle has better defensive awareness than Hall.

Renney is sheltering Nugent-Hopkins. Eberle just happened to be the one chosen to play with Nugent-Hopkins.

Hall and Eberle were mostly okay playing with Horcoff last year against tough opposition.

by godot10 on Feb 18, 2012 1:56 PM MST reply actions

Hall and Eberle were mostly okay playing with Horcoff last year against tough opposition.

Eberle was a .62 p/g player last year in a non-protected situation. If you walk his numbers back, as I suggest above, this year he’s a .67 p/g player.

And that’s nothing to sneeze at. If his true level is .6-.7 p/g, that’s a very good player.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 3:01 PM MST up reply actions

He could have less “luck” in the future but many young players “improve”, so the boxcar numbers might stay flat.

In a couple of years, he might be getting that PPG without “luck”, based simply on improving as a player.

by godot10 on Feb 18, 2012 4:54 PM MST up reply actions

I’ve been thinking about that, too. I wonder how many players in the past 10 years with 80 or more points have had a PDO of 1000 or less?

by gvblackhawk on Feb 18, 2012 6:39 PM MST up reply actions

Eliminate his luck and he has improved, and that’s great.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 18, 2012 6:51 PM MST up reply actions

So you say he’s a very good player, but you rank him 7th on the Top 25 under 25 on a 29th placed team? What gives? Not sure that your top 6 are, but I’d pretty much bet that Eberle has outscored all of them, and will have a better career than all except 2 of them.

by BillHK on Feb 21, 2012 12:32 AM MST up reply actions

A lively discussion – but slightly off the mark. The very issue of whether Eberle is a defensive liability must also be considered in the light of the fact that he is now given extra attention by the opposition with a couple of guys hovering over him every time he touches the puck. No easy sailing for Eberle from now on: he is on everyone’s radar as a very dangerous NHL player. With this being said: his offense is going to dwindle only if he is on the stretcher. he has learned to create opportunities for himself to score and he doesn’t forget to shoot (sic!). My prediction for his NHL career: a point per game (at the very least) and good in all three zones.

by Roman_Pilgrim on Feb 18, 2012 5:41 PM MST reply actions

and yeh: if Eberle is number 6 talent and performance wise on this list – call me Daisy!

by Roman_Pilgrim on Feb 18, 2012 5:42 PM MST reply actions

I don’t think comparing him to Gagner is fair. One came into this season with 4 years of NHL expereince, and another just 1. You need to give Eberle another year or two in the NHL before Gagner comparisons will be fair.

by gcw_rocks on Feb 19, 2012 6:59 AM MST reply actions

It’s fine to compare him to Gagner. His box scores have been better than Gagner. Besides, Gagner isn’t a bad player by any stretch.

by BillHK on Feb 21, 2012 12:34 AM MST up reply actions

No, I was referring to the defensive side of the game which come with years of expereince in the NHL. Gagner has 4+. Eberle has 1+. Big difference, regardless of age.

by gcw_rocks on Feb 22, 2012 9:44 AM MST up reply actions

Zona just hates clutch Canadian heroes.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Feb 19, 2012 9:45 AM MST reply actions 2 recs

You sound like Ben.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 19, 2012 9:50 AM MST up reply actions

Shooting percentages increase with shots in scoring position… I wonder how many shots Eberle is dropping from outside the prime area compared to other players.

If you watch all of Eberle’s goals on NHL.com they are mostly of the beautiful goal variety. Versus RNH goals which are mostly ugly goals. I have no statistical backing on this but I think shooting %’s are higher on mostly empty nets. So long as the player skill he plays with remains high – he should continue to have a high shooting %.

by curcro on Feb 19, 2012 11:27 PM MST reply actions

many players just shoot on net. Some players like Stamkos aim for the open parts of the net.

by BillHK on Feb 21, 2012 12:35 AM MST reply actions

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