Goaltender Save Percentage In The Shootout
by Samuel Ngai on Feb 20, 2012 6:30 AM MST
Email
Print|
|
No, this is not another exasperated plea for Tom Renney to start using he of the 50% career success rate. That is obvious and has been beaten to death and rightfully so.
What I'd like to talk about is the fact that television analysts and production staff continue to ignore such a crucial part of the shootout. It is completely baffling but I'd wager that it has not even crossed the minds of the majority of people watching a shootout that crucial information is being withheld from them for some inexplicable reason. Try to see if you can guess what it is before you take the jump. Hint...It's something obvious.
Goalie career save percentage!!! *pausing while the people who couldn't figure it out smack themselves in the head and while the people who did figure it out pat themselves on the back*
Why do they only show the shooter career success rate in shootouts? Has it occurred to anyone that perhaps the goalies save rate might be a useful stat for the viewer at home to know? It's probably a much more significant stat since the goalie is apt to have more at bats. Riddle me this...is it more interesting to know that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 1 for 3 lifetime or that Nikolai Khabibulin has a .633 (81 for 128) save percentage? Or that Devan Dubnyk is very similar .625 (30 for 48)? The lack of the stat on the televised coverage has also probably lead to most fans being oblivious to what a good success rate is for a goalie in the shootout. Take a minute to guess what the average for all the current active goalies in the NHL is...
***WAITING***
The answer is .676
There are only 5 starting goaltenders with worse shootout save percentages than Khabibulin.
Ilya Bryzgalov .632
Miikka Kiprusoff .609
Cam Ward .604
Ondrej Pavelec .600
Niklas Backstrom .561
If I'm the Minnesota Wild coach, I would consider taking a page out of the Gordon Bombay playbook and sticking Josh Harding (.690) in for every shootout. Unfortunately for the Oilers, the numbers say both of our options are equally miserable.
What does this mean in the big picture? The league average for team shootout games per year is around 6. If we were to swap Khabibulin's pitiful .633 for Henrik Lundqvist gaudy .764 how many shootout Ls would swing to Ws in a year? 1-2...at most?
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this FanPost are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or position of the staff.
13 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
For some reason all I can think about is MacT sending out Morrison for the shootout. Did that happen more than once? Why do I remember that so strongly?
Anyway, I have no idea why TV analysis think the stats they think are important are important. At some point you have to think TSN or someone will hire an adv. stat guy (I’m not saying save % is an adv. stat) who will broaden the perspective of how we talk about hockey at the watercooler level. It’s bound to happen at some point.
by Romulus' Apotheosis on Feb 17, 2012 3:47 PM MST reply actions
I was thinking that exact same thing. MacT benched Markkanen (I think) and put in Morrison who had an excellent success rate in the shootout. Jussi was pissed at being pulled and Morrison didn’t win, so perhaps that’s why it only happened once. I guess it is probably the kind of switch that’s fine so long as it’s been clearly set out beforehand that it will happen if the game reaches a shootout.
you asked for this on twitter. not sure if you got reply
Copperandblue asked for this on twitter. i replied but not sure if they get it (not good with the whole technology thing). can you pass this along, they wanted the quote from Tambellini in regards to the Season ticket holder meeting I mentioned in one of Lowetide’s threads.
- Tambellini was asked about what we are doing to address the D, since we are stacked with young forwards. He replied "We have some great young defenseman coming, Klefbom, Musil, Gernat and Marincin, in 2-3 years. We just have to bridge the gap until then".
by DBO on Feb 20, 2012 9:47 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Some of the samples are pretty small though. Dubnyk has 48 career shots. He was under 50% last year and over 70% this year. Which is his true ability level?
As for swapping in goaltenders, MacT tried it once. I’m not sure how effective it would actually be. Even though one goaltender might be better than the other at shootouts, you are sticking in a cold goaltender to face breakaways. Whatever advantage you might have gained with the better shootout goalie is probably lost.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
Numbers Shnumbers, coaching is also about personnel management.
I will never forget Ty Conklin bouncing his mask off the runway when he got pulled for one of those shootouts. He’d played 65 minutes and his coach didn’t trust him with the game on the line. Then Morrison came in and allowed two goals on two shots and that was that (I think I’ve got the right game) and everybody went home grumpy. If Morrison had pulled a groin it would have been anti-perfect.
Is it worth “losing your goalie” to gain some infinitesimally nebulous advantage in one shootout? I think it’s dangerous territory for the coach. MacT tried it, and nobody has done it since to my knowledge.
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 20, 2012 10:33 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah, it was a game vs Dallas, and IIRC, Conklin had gotten beaten pretty bad on a penalty shot earlier in the game.
When it comes to the risk of “losing your goalie”, take into account who your goalie is. I wouldn’t do it with a Backstrom or a Lundqvist… but Ty Conklin had an .881 sv%. You lose him and what’s the worst that happens?
Besides, the Oilers went out the very next night and acquired Roloson anyways. If you are going to pull a move like that, that’s probably the time to do it.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
You lose him and what’s the worst that happens?
As a coach, the worst thing that happens is your goalie hates you, your team doesn’t trust you, you miss the playoffs and you get fired. But hey, you can write on your epitaph that you played the percentages!
Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 20, 2012 10:47 AM MST up reply actions
Except that the team didn’t hate him and they made it to within a win of the Stanley Cup.
Like I said, we aren’t talking about a top goalie here, Conklin was literally one of the worst goalies in the league.
And MacT probably had some indication that he was getting a new goalie the following day and felt it was worth the risk.
IF you are going to make that kind of decision, that was pretty much the time to try it.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
I think if you are the coach then you have to let both goalies know before hand that, should the game reach a shoot-out, you are going to put in Morrison because he has had great success. So long as you manage everyone’s expectations beforehand, you can get away with this kind of thing. Doing it on the fly is always going to piss the starting tender off.
The samples might be small but that doesn’t mean they can’t be indicative and with no other information readily available, you should probably use the number as a guide and adjust accordingly as the number changes with at bats.
Small tangent here…Ive always wondered if during practice coaches run shootouts so that they can record a shootout success rates for their shooters and goalies. It might be a rational explaination for why Horcoff is constantly passed over in the shootout if hes a dog in practice while others light it up.
by Samuel Ngai on Feb 20, 2012 12:22 PM MST up reply actions
Islander’s coach Jack Capuano pulled Nabokov (.638) in favor of DiPietro (.730) earlier this season.
I agree with Bruce that there are certainly meta-game considerations to take into account and I did mention the caveat at the end that any expected value to be gained from such a move would probably be small. However, in a vacuum, I think its pretty obvious that you should be using your most effective goalie.
Also, I think its interesting to note that Tom Renney isn’t completely opposed to the idea.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Copper & Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Oilers Schedule
Last 5 Games
@
Vancouver
|
Sat 04/07 | L 0 - 3 |
|
Anaheim
|
Thu 04/05 | OT - L 2 - 3 |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Mon 04/02 | L 0 - 2 |
|
@
Anaheim
|
Sun 04/01 | W 2 - 1 |
|
Los Angeles
|
Fri 03/30 | L 1 - 4 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Friday’s Three Stars: Devils head to Final; Brodeur, Kovalchuk the difference in Game 6
- Devils eliminate Rangers in Game 6, ending fear of the past, setting course for the future
- Adam Henrique sends New Jersey Devils to Stanley Cup Final with OT goal vs. Rangers (VIDEO)
- Watch Ilya Kovalchuk’s Game 6 goal for Devils, a.k.a. power-play porn (VIDEO)
- Devils look to eliminate Rangers in Game 6; Hal Gill’s broken tibia (Playoff Puck Previews)
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Blues CEO Mike McCarthy stepping down
- Blues CEO Mike McCarthy stepping down, not long after ownership change
- Rangers eliminated by Devils with crushing OT loss after another rally in Game 6 falls short
- Rangers season ends as another rally falls short
- Hard-skating Cataractes upset set defending champ Saint John 7-4 at Memorial Cup
