2012 NHL Draft Consensus Top 100 - February Update

If there's one physical trait or ability that makes scouts and General Managers go all doe-eyed and forces them into bad decisions, it's size. The second, and only slightly less important trait is grit.

The Edmonton Oilers spent half of a decade drafting large forwards in the early rounds and have absolutely nothing to show for it. Names like Winchester, Jacques, Mikhnov and Radunske will forever be associated with the turn of the century Oilers. 10 years later and the idea of gritty bruisers still permeates the draft room at Rexall Place, and the last three drafts have produced Cameron Abney and Travis Ewanyk in the first three rounds. Contrast that with Detroit's strategy of loading up on skill early, late and often.

But Edmonton is not alone in chasing after size and grit before skill -- every year there are a number of checking forwards selected in the early rounds, long before a team like Detroit would consider a look. The run-up to the 2012 NHL Draft is providing a real-time example of the size/grit vs. skill debate and scouting views. Two players, one enormous and gritty, one smaller and highly skilled, are quietly moving up draft boards, and it's the gritty player earning the better reviews.

Tom Wilson, a 6'4" 200 lb wing playing for the Plymouth Whalers has rocketed up the rankings, going from 55th overall to 30th in this update. His primary attributes are his size and one draft scout isn't particularly taken with the rest of his game. I asked Scott Campbell of The Scouting Report about Wilson:

Wilson is an imposing forward who plays with a tremendous amount of girt. He’s a big body and uses his size to his advantage by dishing out punishing body-checks and keeps teams honest with his presence. Offensive upside is a huge concern for Wilson, however. His skill-level and touch are average at best and he’s had trouble finding the back of the net despite playing with some of the top forwards in the OHL in Plymouth. Wilson’s physicality and ability to control the play on the cycle should help him play a bottom 6 role at the NHL level but I feel like there’s some risk taking him in the 1st round as his potential to play a greater role is somewhat limited.

Tim Bozon, a 6'1" 180 lb wing from Switzerland possesses copious amounts of skill. He debuted at 130 on the consensus list and now a month later he sits in 55th. Bozon's skill level might not be elite, but he's certain got his fair share. I spoke with Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus who thinks Bozon has first round potential:

Prototypical do it all type of offensive talent. He's an above-average skater, puck handler, and thinker who can finish with decent size and works hard. No quibbles at all with his game. His one main weakness is no high-end skill/standout ability, but even being above-average across the board makes your a surefire first rounder in my books. I had him 31 in my mid years due to not having enough notes but more I hear on him I think he could certainly push for mid first by June.

The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Redline Report, Future Considerations, ISS, Craig Button, Hockey Prospectus, The Scouting Report, and Win Shares via Nick, A.K.A. Mathletic.

• The theme for this class thus far has been chalk. 9 of the original consensus top 10 are still in the top 10. Zemgus Girgensons moved from 11 to 10 when Nick Ebert fell out of the top 10. The only significant mover inside of the top 10 is Filip Forsberg. Forsberg started in 8th but, after sitting in 4th for the last four months, is now up to 3rd overall.
• Speaking of Ebert, his fall continues. He began the season ranked 5th overall and has slipped with each update. 5 --> 10 -->15 -->22 -->42. At some point, he becomes oversold and is being punished far too much.
  
• Though the top 10 has been stable, there are clear lines of separation: Yakupov is alone at the top, but Grigorenko has closed the gap and may get closer In March. Forsberg, Murray and Dumba are tightly grouped as are Rielly, Galchenyuk and Trouba. Reinhart is a level below them and it's another similar step down to Girgensons.
• Alex Galchenyuk is back from his knee injury and has the best chance to improve his final ranking and join the Murray and Dumba combination. I spoke with one Western Conference scout who thinks Galchenyuk is a clear third, right behind Grigorenko.
  
• Radek Faksa is riding the momentum built by the scouting community. His ranking has increased for each update after starting at #54 in September.
• Scott Laughton, the forward from Oshawa is going in the opposite direction. He was ranked 19th in September and now sits 46th.
• Australia's Nathan Walker cracks the Top 100 for the first time, coming in at 99. Walker's story is a great one and his stock keeps rising.
• If you're interested, ISS' list mostly closely correlates with the consensus. Our 8 sources, ordered by closest correlation: ISS, Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, The Scouting Report, Win Shares, Hockey Prospectus, Red Line Report, and finally, Craig Button.