Reader Mailbag: Horcoff & Hemsky vs. Gagner & Eberle
by Derek Zona on Feb 12, 2012 6:00 PM MST
in Analysis
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PrintHey Derek,
You showed the recent trends with Gagner and Eberle getting the protection RNH and Eberle got before the injury. You didn't list results. What do the numbers look like? Are you avoiding them because they show Eberle and Gagner in a positive light?
Rob
Hi Rob,
I wasn't avoiding them for any reason, I just didn't think to post them. Working with the zonestarts linked above, here is the zonestart-adjusted Corsi/60 for the same six forwards:
| Player | Adj. Corsi/60 |
| Ryan Smyth | -12.61 |
| Sam Gagner | -14.39 |
| Taylor Hall | -15.53 |
| Jordan Eberle | -18.83 |
| Shawn Horcoff | -22.13 |
| Ales Hemsky | -26.65 |
Keep in mind that Horcoff and Hemsky have faced the toughs almost exclusively through this time period while Smyth has faced both the toughest and easiest comp depending on his linemates. Hall has also been up and down the comp list, while Gagner and Eberle have seen the easiest competition overall.
The Oilers certainly aren't winning because of defense - they've given up an average of 37.3 shots per game over the last eight - and thankfully pucks are going in for them right now.
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I think your numbers are off.
Hemsky’s Corsi on is 1.09 and his ozone start is 49.3, so it should go up a bit.
I use a different formula which gives:
TAYLORHALL 4.428
ALESHEMSKY 1.216
SAMGAGNER -3.048
SHAWNHORCOFF -7.38
JORDANEBERLE -7.754
RYANSMYTH -8.696
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
Oops, fail on my part for not realizing you meant the last 7 games. Looking at TOI they are probably fine.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
If you only have two defensemen who are completely healthy and really capable of moving the puck, no forward is going to play to their potential, and the Corsi numbers are going to be awful.
For example, it would be interesting to see the zone adjusted Corsi for those forwards with and without Gilbert.
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