Dubnyk, the Veterans, Gagner and Recent Trends

by Derek Zona on Feb 10, 2012 4:30 PM MST in News

The last two weeks have been like a sine wave for the Edmonton Oilers. They clipped the Sharks in the shootout and ran off four more games with points before falling back to earth at the hands of the Maple Leafs and Red Wings. Though Sam Gagner's 8-point night received all of the media attention (rightfully so) it was Devan Dubnyk who was responsible for the Oilers' streak.

Dubnyk almost single-handedly won the first three games of the points streak when he faced 110 shots and turned away 105 of them.

	Saves	Shots	Sv. Pct.
San Jose	44	45	0.978
Vancouver	30	32	0.938
Colorado	31	33	0.939
Chicago	43	47	0.915
Detroit	35	39	0.897
Total	183	196	0.934

Dubnyk played the best stretch of hockey of his NHL career, posting a .934 save percentage for the entirety of the points streak and a .955 combined save percentage against the Sharks, Canucks and Avalanche.

Dubnyk wasn't the only one who posted interesting numbers, however.

Prior to their unification against Chicago, Taylor Hall - Sam Gagner - Jordan Eberle put a combined 312 shots on goal for on the season.

Player	Shots	S/G
Gagner	80	1.9
Eberle	106	2.4
Hall	126	3.2

On a per game basis with those shot rates, only Taylor Hall has a chance to become a 30-goal scorer if we assume that these skilled players will shoot somewhere between 8% and 12%. The trio would expect to combine for somewhere between 50 and 75 goals for an 82 game season.

The Chicago game changed everything. Since then, the trio has 43 shots on goal.

Player	Shots	S/G
Gagner	17	4.3
Eberle	11	2.8
Hall	15	3.8

On a per game basis with those shot rates, both Gagner and Hall have a chance to become 30-goal scorers if we assume that these skilled players will shoot somewhere between 8% and 12%. The trio would expect to combine for somewhere between 70 and 105 goals for an 82 game season. If these shot rates are sustainable is a completely different question.

One other item of interest is zonestarts. While Oilers' fans everywhere trash the veterans on this team and call for even more younger players as they celebrate the "new" Sam Gagner, they overlook how integral those veterans are to the young gunz!1 success. Over the last 7 games, starting with the shootout win over San Jose, the veterans are being asked to climb a mountain:

Player	DZ Faceoffs	NZ Faceoffs	OZ Faceoffs	OZ Start %
Shawn Horcoff	42	48	19	0.311
Ryan Smyth	42	38	19	0.311
Ales Hemsky	38	46	21	0.356

While the gunz!1 are getting the easier job:

Player	DZ Faceoffs	NZ Faceoffs	OZ Faceoffs	OZ Start %
Jordan Eberle	29	37	40	0.580
Sam Gagner	30	38	39	0.565
Taylor Hall	41	41	33	0.446

It's trendy to trash Hemsky and Horcoff and call out Smyth for "coasting", but in reality, the three veterans have been tasked with tilting the ice in the right direction while the younger players are making the most of their zonestarts.

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Contracts?

The conversation over at Oilersnation and mc79 have taken this treatment of the youngunz up as well. Gagner’s outrageous shooting percentage and Ebs’ IPP coupled with the entire line’s OZ Start% highlights a problem that I’m sure won’t be easy for the management or the coaches to solve. With this line seemingly the only one to be able to convert in such circumstances (easy OZ starts) I am certain the powers that be find themselves in something of a pickle:
1) Play the kids further south: Lose games and fans.
2) Keep on truckin’: the management rolls out of bed and overpays the gunz.

What to do?

by OlsonP on Feb 10, 2012 6:45 PM MST reply actions

Well, for Hall and Nuge, go back in time and not scorch 3 combined (and counting!) ELC years. For Eberle and Gagner, at least for the rest of this season, put those fuckers to work. Try to get a handle on what they can handle.

by Passive Voice on Feb 10, 2012 9:24 PM MST up reply actions

The young’uns can’t handle the toughs (Gagner has with good teammates and Hall did okay with a rover at centre last year) so Renney’s only chance is to protect them. Management just has to understand that Eberle and Hopkins are getting the cherry assignments and are running with unsustainable percentages. We’ll see if they do understand because they have yet to demonstrate any capacity for that sort of analysis.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 11, 2012 11:18 AM MST up reply actions

Hall, Eberle face second toughs.
Sedins get 70% zone starts.
Tough comp forwards in veteran contract get 4.1M on average.
The second cotract tough comp fwd is in the 2.3M.

We pay Horcoff 5.5M for tough comp low goal high assist set-up role.
No way we pay 5.5M for 12-18G from hemsky as well.
Now we have Gagner rolling into his third contract. 3.5M is a break even return.

This bird in the bush?

Snagging a second contract FA like Parenteau to deliver upper second to lower 1st would be much more resonable.

Most important stat relative to contratct games played. hemsky 60% of games played. the last 4 seasons. So if you believe he is a 5.5M player which he is not. high assist players have to be in the 25G range to deliver on a 5.5M contract. high assist guys in the 16-20g range are 4M players.
So 60% games played on a 5.5M contract he is only delivering 3.3M of performance if he plays each game perfectly. Perfectly not likely.

Maybe hemsky delivers on his earlier 90% games played pace at .9PPG we end up with a 18G 47A tough comp player.

by rickithebear on Feb 12, 2012 9:04 AM MST reply actions

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