Number That May Interest Only Me: 62

by Derek Zona on Feb 1, 2012 10:00 AM MST in Analysis

Rangers' Fenwick before Carl Hagelin	0.447
Rangers' Fenwick since Carl Hagelin	0.519

And if Fenwick is too confusing for you, how about shots percentage?

Rangers' Shots % before Carl Hagelin	0.433
Rangers' Shots % since Carl Hagelin	0.520

Carl Hagelin wears #62 for the New York Rangers. He started the season with the Connecticut Whale of the AHL, totaling 13 points in 17 games, not an eye-catching total for an older rookie. But the parent club was struggling to drive play and called on Hagelin to provide a spark. Hagelin was drafted in the 6th round (#168) in the 2007 draft out of Sodertalje, Sweden and made his way to the University of Michigan, where he posted stellar offensive numbers during his NCAA career.

Carl Hagelin

#62 / Left Wing / New York Rangers

Height: 5-11

Weight: 176

Born: Aug 23, 1988

Before making the call to Hagelin, the Rangers played 18 games and were 10-5-3, largely on the back of Henrik Lundqvist and his ridiculous .950 even strength save percentage. But the Rangers were beaten badly at the possession game during those 18 games. During that stretch, they were nearly as bad as the Minnesota Wild when the game was close.

Then Hagelin arrived. Even though the goaltending is slowly (not nearly fast enough for Pens or Flyers' fans) falling back towards earthly levels, (.950 to .941) the team is 21-7-1, in part thanks to an amazing turnaround in possession. Hagelin himself carries a .547 Fenwick close ratio through his first 29 games and has keyed a remarkable transformation in the Rangers' even strength play. In addition to his amazing underlying numbers, he has 16 points in 29 games, better than his NHLE projections suggested. The indomitable George Ays noticed Hagelin's impact immediately, and called out the team's transformation over a month ago.

John Tortorella isn't protecting him, either. Hagelin's quality of competition suggests second-toughs and his offensive zonestarts are just 40%. His results are striking compared to other rookies.

Either Hagelin's sample size is only 29 games and this is simply a mirage, or the Rangers have discovered (perhaps stolen) the secret to uncovering late-round Swedish ice-tilters.

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Whats your impression Derek? I surprised that you would lend any credence to the idea that this isn’t just a sample size issue.

by Peacecountry on Feb 1, 2012 10:32 AM MST reply actions

I’m not Derek, but I would note that Hagelin was called up at the same time as John Mitchell, who is sporting a ridiculous 61.7% Fenwick Close over the same stretch, albeit w/ much lighter competition. I think (actually, I’m pretty positive) Hagelin has fallen back since moving to a top 6 role, he was sporting the same 60+ possession level at one point. You can see the drop in a running total of his scoring chances as well. On that chart, you can also see the improvement in Brian Boyle at the time they were added, as that line was flat out dominating while together.

It’s a little bit of a coincidence, but the overall difference is quite notable. My memory sucks, but I’m fairly certain that the two people benched/sent down at the same time were Erik Christensen and Kris Newbury, who were both possession black holes. That also helps account for some of the improvement.

There’s been a lot of things going on with the Rangers this season. Between early season travel, Hagelin & Mitchell, and some other factors we haven’t quite pinpointed, they’ve been improving game by game. Whatever it is, anyone who is looking at just their full season numbers is missing, IMO, a significant part of the picture.

Calling it the “Hagelin effect” is kind of fun though.

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by George E. Ays on Feb 1, 2012 10:52 AM MST up reply actions

I would note that Hagelin was called up at the same time as John Mitchell, who is sporting a ridiculous 61.7% Fenwick Close over the same stretch, albeit w/ much lighter competition.

Mitchell also has the benefit of playing with better teammates. His top two forward linemates are Boyle and Hagelin. Even though Hagelin’s top forward linemate is also Boyle, his next job is carrying Mitchell and/or Richards. What is more, even though Boyle is facing league-average competition, he’s taking the vast majority of his starts in the defensive zone and beating them to a pulp. In the end, there’s probably something to be said for his presence as well, but Hagelin’s early numbers do look very promising.

I’m going to go throw up now.

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by Chase W on Feb 1, 2012 1:39 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs

His top 2 forward linemates for the season are Boyle and Hagelin, but he hasn’t played with either much since Hagelin got moved up. Mitchell’s spent the last half-dozen to a dozen games dragging Rupp around (with Anisimov’s help).

I acknowledge Boyle’s zone starts are Vigneault-esque, but pre-Hagelin/Mitchell, Boyle was at 36.7% FenwickClose. He also spent a bunch of time with Rupp-Prust at that time, which isn’t helping anyone.

After Hagelin/Mitchell were called up and they were all put together is when Boyle took off (57.3% close since). Maybe it was Boyle being dragged down, but it’s hard for me to buy the argument that Boyle is/was carrying Mitchell when he was really struggling before he arrived.

by George E. Ays on Feb 1, 2012 2:28 PM MST up reply actions

Mitchell’s spent the last half-dozen to a dozen games dragging Rupp around (with Anisimov’s help).

Anisimov is still a play driver, and a very good one at that. Even though he’s not getting the toughs this season, he proved he could at least break even against top-of-the-league competition last year. This year, he’s getting virtually the same zone start except he’s playing a bunch of softies and his Corsi/60 is 9 shots higher. Even though his QoT may have lost a bit of luster, he’s still playing with someone more than good enough to make up for it.

I acknowledge Boyle’s zone starts are Vigneault-esque, but pre-Hagelin/Mitchell, Boyle was at 36.7% FenwickClose. He also spent a bunch of time with Rupp-Prust at that time, which isn’t helping anyone.

Exactly. Boyle’s teammates weren’t great last year either, but adjust his Corsi for zone starts and he still did a very admirable job. I don’t think the 18 game sample you cited is indicative of Boyle’s true talent level. I’m not saying he’s the next coming or anything, I just don’t think he’s that bad based on what he’s done in the past. Rupp’s Corsi numbers are also flat out God-awful.

After Hagelin/Mitchell were called up and they were all put together is when Boyle took off (57.3% close since). Maybe it was Boyle being dragged down, but it’s hard for me to buy the argument that Boyle is/was carrying Mitchell when he was really struggling before he arrived.

If we go back to his Toronto days, I still see Mitchell playing against softies with guys good enough to send the play in the right direction in ‘09-10, and last year in his short time with them he got smoked with a high zone start and the chance to play with Versteeg. Using Eric T.’s Balanced Corsi and CorsiRel, he’s been negative in each category except overall Corsi in ‘09-10, which I think was helped by the guys he got to play with. Unless he’s miraculously turned it around, I still think teammates are a huge part of his success whereas Hagelin seems to be some sort of play driver. How much of one is up for debate, but I think he’s >>>> Mitchell for sure.

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by Chase W on Feb 1, 2012 4:09 PM MST up reply actions

Either Hagelin’s sample size is only 29 games and this is simply a mirage

I’m going to call Petr Prucha and ask him what he thinks on this.

I’m all for Hagelin, and there’s no denying the impact he’s had. I can’t point to specific data, but I’m betting that the NYR have used him very smartly – protecting him early, seeing what he can do, and then giving him tougher assignments as he’s gotten comfortable. And I have no problem with recognizing that there’s a marked shift in NYR team stats pre-and post-Hagelin, but are people attributing that change to him?

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by poploser on Feb 1, 2012 10:39 AM MST reply actions

I haven’t seen a ton of Rangers games this season but based on the data, Hagelin and especially Mitchell have posted pretty impressive Zoneshift numbers which obviously allows Tortorella to deploy Stepan and Gaborik in the most favorable of circumstances (61% offensive zone start rate for the two of them). I’m sure their turnaround in possession has to do with more than just Hagelin/Mitchell but the ripple effect those guys have created seems pretty significant.

by The Neutral on Feb 1, 2012 11:43 AM MST up reply actions

Interesting theory. Maybe one of the guys with more time and talent would look at the data to find that ripple effect.

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by poploser on Feb 1, 2012 6:55 PM MST up reply actions

More numbers:

Fenwick:
Hagelin on ice: 55.5%
Hagelin in game but off ice: 49.6%
Before Hagelin joined team: 44.0%

Shots:
Hagelin on ice: 56.4%
Hagelin in game but off ice: 49.5%
Before Hagelin joined team: 43.8%

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by JaredL on Feb 1, 2012 11:50 AM MST reply actions

So there’s regression to the mean in there, too, it looks like.

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by Doogie2K on Feb 1, 2012 12:47 PM MST up reply actions

(I know Fenwick/shots is less subject to variation than goals/SH%, but it was a pretty small sample size.)

by Doogie2K on Feb 1, 2012 12:48 PM MST up reply actions

You can call it sample size if you want, but his ability to constantly motor and tilt the ice was one of THE biggest reasons he was so beloved at Michigan. Having watched over 75% of his games while he was in Ann Arbor, this is not shocking to me in the least. He just tends to work harder than anyone else.

by JonSobel on Feb 3, 2012 1:12 PM MST reply actions 1 recs

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