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Which Oilers Forwards Are Getting The Best Teammates And Toughest Opponents?

Oilers_forwards_qualcomp_qualteam_medium

Get the full-sized chart here.

The horizontal axis shows qualcomp, specifically Corsi relative quality of competition taken from the venerable and terrifying Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. The vertical axis shows qualteam, specifically Corsi relative quality of teammates taken from Desjardins. The bubbles are color-coded: blue means the player in the bubble has a positive zonestart-adjusted Corsi, red a negative. Finally, the size of the bubble indicates absolute value of zonestart-adjusted Corsi.

Star-divide

  • The fourth line is still brutal. Yes, they have far and away the worst qualteam, but it's because they are playing as a unit. At the same, they've received the weakest competition that they could possibly play and they're still getting their teeth kicked in.
  • The veterans, Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff and Ryan Smyth are clearly taking on the tough minutes. Only Hemsky, the guy headed out of town because of his horrible work ethic, is staying above water against the toughs. Hemsky has done the same thing against the toughs since the lockout.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has played with the best linemates and faced third-level competition. He's still in the red in the possession numbers.
  • Taylor Hall has played with the third-best teammates and faced third-level competition. He's beating that level of play.
  • The big surprise here is Sam Gagner. He's faced second-level competition and played with second level teammates. He's in the red, but not that far under water.

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Firstly I have to say that I dont know stats analysis as good as I should
Second almost everything Derek says/implies I would agree with re stats
- but I get half a feeling there is something not exactly right here
a couple of questions
1. If both axis are corsi relative figures then is that exaggereting the corsi effect ?
2. if some groups are together for a fair while (1st, 2nd and ahem ‘energy’) and their relative ‘corsi’ ness positions them ranking wise high/low/whatever then this will skew their corsi rel Qof C ?
example – lets say you are Dave Semenko on 99’s line – we know what his duties were – but by accident he may well end up with a relatively good corsi (I’m presuming) – but that now gives 99 a relatively good corsi rel QofT – ok my example may not be the best – but you get the drift …..

Just a thought ?

by southampton viking on Jan 8, 2012 12:20 AM MST reply actions  

1. What is “the corsi effect”?

2. If I understand what you’re asking here, that would certainly be true of Semenko played exclusively with Gretzky. In general, you don’t have plugs who play exclusively with excellent players, but if you do then that’s going to skew the plug’s Corsi, which will in turn skew the good player’s QoT. However, even if Semenko plays exclusively with Gretzky, Gretzky (by virtue of getting a lot more minutes than Semenko) is not going to play exclusively with Semenko, which limits Semenko’s contribution to Gretzky’s QoT.

This is where WOWY numbers can be really helpful too.

by sarcasticidealist on Jan 8, 2012 1:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Josh Green is -6 in 3 games. Is that a record?

by Jeremywilhelm on Jan 8, 2012 2:57 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

Chris BUtler was -7 in one game recently.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 8, 2012 11:07 AM MST up reply actions  

Frankly, I doubt that’s even a “Josh Green with the Oilers” record.

Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.

by Benjamin Massey on Jan 9, 2012 5:21 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

I say let Tambellini build the team the way he wants, get rid of Hemsky, horcoff, Gagner, and Gilbert. Bring in more D like Barker, Sutton, etc. Let lander, hordichuk, and eager play together and watch the train go full speed into a wall. I guarantee people will tune in just to see the train wreck happen. Last place isn’t good enough, let’s aim to be the worst team ever!!!

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Jan 8, 2012 8:16 AM MST reply actions  

Jones suprising as well?

He’s not drowning anywhere close to last year by this metric. He was the place plays went to die. If you seperate his numbers out with and away from Horc/Smyth how much decline do you see in his results?

by Chartleys on Jan 8, 2012 10:45 AM MST reply actions  

I was going to ask the same question. Jones last year and this year is begging for a WOWY. Either hat guy improved a lot, is getting a bump from teammates this year or was sunk by teammates last year.

by Kent Wilson on Jan 8, 2012 11:08 AM MST up reply actions  

He’s slowly sliding away.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 8, 2012 11:20 AM MST up reply actions  

I do think he’s improved. The stretch early in the season where he was playing with Smyth and Horcoff has clearly skewed his numbers somewhat, but that trio has been broken up for a while and he still has the toughest zonestarts on the team. He’s also a big part of the Oilers PK and that is one area that has improved greatly. I wasn’t a big fan of the contract when it was signed, but right now he appears to be providing fair value for it.

by melancholyculkin on Jan 8, 2012 11:29 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

To clarify, I think Jones is somewhere between the tough minutes demon at the start of the year and last years sinkhole. I also think there’s a very good chance he could regress to last years level at any moment, and if I were Tambellini I’d be shopping him at the deadline while his value is high. Along with Khabibulin.

by melancholyculkin on Jan 8, 2012 12:26 PM MST up reply actions  

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Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

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Eastern Conference

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Division Standings

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  2. Atlantic (68-50, .576)
  3. Pacific (62-54, .534)
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  6. Southeast (51-81, .386)


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