Rookie Forward Deployments, League-Wide

by Derek Zona on Jan 30, 2012 6:00 PM MST in Analysis

Each bubble in the graph above represents the the possession metrics of an NHL rookie. This chart is limited to rookies with a minimum of 25 games played. Those players include Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sean Couturier, Adam Henrique, Matt Read, Cody Hodgson, Craig Smith, Colin Greening, Luke Adam, Ryan Johansen, Carl Hagelin, Nick Johnson, Marcus Kruger, Andrew Desjardins, Matt Frattin, Roman Horak, Brett Connolly, Cody Eakin, Kaspars Daugavins, Cory Emmerton, Dale Weise, Harry Zolnierczyk, Devante Smith-Pelly, Anton Lander, Zac Rinaldo, Andrei Loktionov, Maxime Macenauer, and Nino Niederreiter.

The horizontal axis shows qualcomp, specifically Corsi relative quality of competition taken from the venerable and terrifying Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. The vertical axis shows percentage of percentage of faceoffs taken in the defensive zone, again from the venerable and terrifying one. The bubbles are color-coded: blue means the player in the bubble has a positive zonestart-adjusted Corsi, red a negative. Finally, the size of the bubble indicates absolute value for zonestart-adjusted Corsi. All of the caveats about comparing these numbers between teams stand, but the chart is still a useful jumping-off point for analysis and discussion.

The obvious takeaways here revolve around the biggest bubbles, both red and blue. Landeskog and especially Hagelin are getting the job done. Hagelin is the most surprising and impressive player on the chart.
Nick Johnson has been thrown into the deep end and, like the rest of the Wild, is getting smoked by the possession metrics. Johnson is old for a rookie - 26 - but even the best rookies are going to struggle against the toughs with defensive zonestarts.
Any of the big red bubbles in the bottom left corner probably shouldn't be in the NHL right now. Horak, Macenauer, Smith-Pelly, Lander and Emmerton have been unable to handle the easiest of assignments. It's difficult to believe guys like Patrick Thoresen can't get jobs in the NHL.
Also of note is Marcus Kruger. Tough faceoffs and easier competition haven't stopped Kruger from succeeding in Chicago.
Then there's the center-right mass of red: Adam, Frattin, Niederreriter, Smith, Connolly, Greening, Zolnierczyk and Daugavins are all struggling by the underlying numbers against varying levels of competition.
Dale Weise has faced the most difficult starts, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins the easiest.

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Comments

Love the consistently interesting rookie analysis

And I do have to say, you guys have got a great level of objectivity to keep doing this stuff when it repeatedly shows Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in a pretty negative light….

Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.

One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Jan 31, 2012 4:27 AM MST reply actions

Objectivity

Here at CnB, they’re so objective that it’s actually negative when it comes the Oil.

by OilPen on Jan 31, 2012 8:57 AM MST up reply actions

It’s a presentation of assignments and results. It would be difficult to inject bias into the graph.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 31, 2012 10:02 AM MST up reply actions

Perhaps not bias in the graph but in the content: thankfully you haven’t followed local media and resorted to graphing the Barons’ standings.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jan 31, 2012 10:10 AM MST up reply actions

It’s more that I’m sure you know by now that RNH isn’t the best friend of most usage and possession stats; and yet you’re still consistently producing these interesting analyses and not doing a Minnesota and pretending none of this is happening. Props for that.

Simon Gagne AND Mike Richards may move between towns, wear new jerseys and call different arenas home but, at the end of the day, they will both always be Philadelphia Flyers.

One day Sean Couturier will win the Conn Smythe. You heard it here first.

by PursuitOfLappyness on Jan 31, 2012 3:47 PM MST up reply actions

This is great. Well done, guys.

I heart our rookies.

"Who's more crazy? Who's more...weird?"

"That was a fluffernutter!"

by LeepinLizardz on Jan 31, 2012 10:26 AM MST reply actions

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