Comparing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog and Sean Couturier

by Derek Zona on Jan 29, 2012 6:30 AM MST in Analysis

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog and Sean Couturier were three of the four most highly-ranked forwards in the prospect pool for the 2011 NHL draft. Hopkins went first overall, Landeskog second and Couturier mysteriously lasted until the Flyers selected him eighth overall. The three all stuck with their teams through 10 games in the NHL and will likely be linked and compared for the early part of their careers, at the very least.

So it's worthwhile to see exactly how each player is being used and the results they've managed in each situation. For that, we go to our trusty bubble charts.

*click to enlarge

The horizontal axis shows qualcomp, specifically Corsi relative quality of competition taken from the venerable and terrifying Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. The vertical axis shows the percentage of faceoffs taken in the defensive zone, again from the venerable and terrifying one. The bubbles are color-coded: blue means the player in the bubble has a positive zonestart-adjusted Corsi, red a negative. Finally, the size of the bubble indicates absolute value of zonestart-adjusted Corsi.

The Flyers are using Couturier rather heavily in the defensive zone. His qualcomp indicates he's getting rather weak competition, but that he's pushed play in the right direction for a positive zonestart adjusted Corsi. Landeskog has received much easier zonestarts and more difficult qualcomp, but is killing the possession metrics for the Avalanche. Nugent-Hopkins is getting the easiest zonestarts among the group (and among the easiest in the entire league) and the easiest qualcomp, but has been unable to win the possession battle.

But using relative comparisons discounts the team performance. It's easier to compare the rooks by their rank on their own team.

*click to enlarge

The horizontal axis shows qualcomp rank on each man's team, specifically Corsi relative quality of competition taken from the venerable and terrifying Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. The vertical axis shows qualteam rank on each man's team, again from the venerable and terrifying one. The bubbles are color-coded: blue means the player in the bubble has a positive zonestart-adjusted Corsi, red a negative. Finally, the size of the bubble indicates absolute value of zonestart-adjusted Corsi.

Landeskog is taking on the toughs with the best the Avs can offer and he's been outstanding. Nugent-Hopkins is taking on third level competition with the best his team has to offer and he's getting owned. Couturier faces the easiest possible competition with the worst possible linemates and keeps his head above water.

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Interesting.

I wonder how the defensive pairing playing behind the forwards affect the possession metrics.

Renney’s been running 3rd pair with RNH and his Ozone starts all year. Lots of Sutton, Peckham, Tuebert and Barker when he played.

You would think with the QC that Landeskog is getting he has Johnson or Quincey behind him.

Which is more important for driving possession, QC or QT. Chicken or egg?

by Woodguy on Jan 29, 2012 9:32 AM MST reply actions

Effect of defense pairings

That’s exactly what I am wondering.

Although, considering RNH’s ES vs PP numbers in junior last year, this is to be expected.

by OilPen on Jan 29, 2012 12:20 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

i was looking at this same thing earlier in the season and find it kind of remarkable that the usage hasn’t changed at all. it’s amazing that landeskog can do as he does, but i really question the use of couturier (i.e. the reasoning behind using a theoretically high-end kid in a 4th line role). can anybody explain that?

by ephie on Jan 29, 2012 9:43 AM MST reply actions

but i really question the use of couturier

As does nearly every Flyers fan I know. After Talbot, the two players with the most PK time are Couturier and Read, both rookies. For Read, it makes sense, he’s 6 years older. But to burn Couturier’s ELC on the PK and 4th line time in the defensive zone seems bizarre.

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by Derek Zona on Jan 29, 2012 9:51 AM MST up reply actions

I feel like Philly’s qualbafflingpersonnelmoves is really, really high.

by Passive Voice on Jan 29, 2012 11:38 AM MST up reply actions 3 recs

I feel like Philly’s qualbafflingpersonnelmoves is really, really high.

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by Chase W on Jan 29, 2012 1:17 PM MST reply actions

...ok, and so what?

So…what’s the point of this post? Because if you bothered to make all those “fancy” graphs, you must be trying to emphasize or make some sort of interesting assesment? I just don’t get your point. If your trying to showcase these rooks in their first year in terms of their defensive capabilities, then I would have to give it to Couturier, terrrific 2-way and going to have bright future, as will both. Landeskog is a power forward type, and his size proves it. Dont even compare Nugent-Hopkins physically to neither, as he only major weakness would be that…his strength. But I guarantee you next year, with a summer of training under his belt, RNH will smoke those two combined. His vision, patience and poise is unmatched in the rookie class since Crosby. So again, what’s the point of this article? The point is you really suck at making a point.

by jkellz on Jan 31, 2012 12:31 AM MST reply actions

So…what’s the point of this post?

"The three all stuck with their teams through 10 games in the NHL and will likely be linked and compared for the early part of their careers, at the very least. So it’s worthwhile to see exactly how each player is being used and the results they’ve managed in each situation."

you must be trying to emphasize or make some sort of interesting assesment?

"The Flyers are using Couturier rather heavily in the defensive zone. His qualcomp indicates he’s getting rather weak competition, but that he’s pushed play in the right direction for a positive zonestart adjusted Corsi. Landeskog has received much easier zonestarts and more difficult qualcomp, but is killing the possession metrics for the Avalanche. Nugent-Hopkins is getting the easiest zonestarts among the group (and among the easiest in the entire league) and the easiest qualcomp, but has been unable to win the possession battle."

So again, what’s the point of this article?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 31, 2012 10:16 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs

Derek, I admire your patience to respond as you do to someone who so clearly spent more time on their “comment” than they did reading an interesting and informative short article.

I also appreciate the fact that no one at the C&B is trying to sugar coat or force feed opinions through their articles, if I wanted someone to tell me how to think I would be reading http://oilers.nhl.com/

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by Joe Girth on Jan 31, 2012 12:51 PM MST up reply actions

Reading is hard.

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by Cheryl Bradley on Jan 31, 2012 2:07 PM MST up reply actions

i generally understand all this math stuff, and graphs, and ect…, but to be honest, i agree with jkellz, i don’t see your point, and i know you were trying to make, you just never put it out there, and i tend to see this with a bunch of your articles…pretend that we are a bunch working “blue collar” stiffs and explain, reach your point, and let us know what you’re trying to say…all i get from the fancy graphs above is that you think RNH is by far the weakest rookie

by rdubb30 on Jan 31, 2012 7:25 AM MST reply actions

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