What Does Tom Gilbert Mean To The Oilers?

by Derek Zona on Jan 23, 2012 10:30 AM MST in Analysis

There exists a certain type of fan that will never understand Tom Gilbert's value as a defender. No amount of possession metrics, scoring chance totals or WOWY breakdowns will convince them that Tom Gilbert is amongst the very best defenders in the NHL. Until Gilbert rings up points by the dozen, he will be rated as overpaid and unreliable by that cross-section. No amount of qualcomp, qualteam or block stats will convince them of Gilbert's toughness. Until Gilbert racks up highlight-worthy hits, he will be soft and uncaring in the minds of the faithful.

But one stat that should matter to everyone is the Oilers' record and goal differential without Gilbert.

Since losing Gilbert to a knee injury thanks to the useless Daniel Carcillo, the Oilers have won just one of eight games. The team's goal differential is -17 in those eight games.

In the 39 games prior to Gilbert's injury, the Oilers won 16 games and had a goal differential of -3.

	GP	W	L	OTL	GD
Pre-injury	39	16	19	3	-3
Post-injury	8	1	7	1	-17

Even if the unsustainable hot streak at the beginning of the season is discounted, the difference is still remarkable.

	GP	W	L	OTL	GD	P/G	GD/G
Hot Streak	14	8	4	2	11	1.286	0.786
Pre-injury	25	8	15	1	-14	0.680	-0.560
Post-injury	8	1	7	1	-17	0.375	-2.125

When Ryan Batty named Tom Gilbert the Oilers' first-half MVP, it was well-deserved, but I don't think even he realized how valuable Gilbert was to the Oilers.

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Luckily karma caught up with Dan Carcillo.

by John Chambers on Jan 23, 2012 11:46 AM MST reply actions

I say that I knew he was this important, would anyone believe me?

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
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by ryanbatty on Jan 23, 2012 12:13 PM MST reply actions

So, if you had to try to place him among the other defencemen of the NHL, where would he land? Top ten? Top Twenty?

by Adam Dyck on Jan 23, 2012 1:07 PM MST reply actions

He’s in the top 20 for sure. I’d have to start looking at names to figure out exactly where I think he stands.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 23, 2012 3:47 PM MST up reply actions

20TH IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE????

So you’re saying he’s worth a Plante AND a conditional Marincin next February? CHA-CHING!!!

by CDA on Jan 23, 2012 5:02 PM MST up reply actions

Sorry, you don’t know me… I should clarify that was sarcasm.

The biggest compliment to his skill set is that he would also be our best option on the PP… and yet they can’t afford to rob from his EV and PK minutes. I haven’t heard any rumblings from Gilbert despite that lack of PPTOI probably costing him 3–5 mil on his UFA contract.

by CDA on Jan 23, 2012 5:35 PM MST up reply actions

I’m guessing that other guy who got injured at the same time might be affecting things as well.

by Double DD on Jan 23, 2012 9:44 PM MST reply actions

I was wondering the same thing, given RNH and Eberle went down around the same time.

It would be interesting to see the goals for per game average for each of those segments, and the goals against average for each of those segments. You would expect RNH and Eberle to have a bigger impact on GFA and Gilbert on GAA. If GFA holds relatively constant, and GAA shoots up, then the Gilbert walks on water story holds. If the GFA drops more than the GAA goes up then the findings would at least seem questionable.

by gcw_rocks on Jan 24, 2012 8:12 AM MST up reply actions

I decided to look at it, for whatever it’s worth. If you look at the all the pre-injury games, the goals for drops signicantly more.

Goals For
Pre-Injury: 2.74
Post-Injury: 1.44
Diff: -1.30

Goals Against
Pre-Injury: 2.84
Post-Injury: 3.11
Diff: +0.27

And if you look at without the hot streak at the beginning of the season, the goals against has actually improved without Gilbert (and those other guys).

Goals For
Pre-Injury: 2.96
Post-Injury: 1.44
Diff: -1.52

Goals Against
Pre-Injury: 3.52
Post-Injury: 3.11
Diff: -0.41

by Double DD on Jan 24, 2012 10:25 AM MST up reply actions

Thanks!

That seems to indicate that change in offensive production is driving down the goal differential, not defensive effeciency. And if that’s the driver, does that not hint RNH might be the MVP over Gilbert?

by gcw_rocks on Jan 24, 2012 10:49 AM MST up reply actions

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