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Dumba, Grigorenko, Murray, Yakupov: Should The Oilers Draft Offense Or Defense?

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Finishing 30th overall, unthinkable to fans just six weeks ago, seems like an inevitability for the Edmonton Oilers. The team sits just six points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets, but have won just 9 times their last 33 games. The Jackets have won 10 of their last 33 games. The Jackets' goal differential over that span is -27, the Oilers' differential is -29. Even if they manage to avoid yet another last place finish, 29th looks like the best a team with razor-thin depth and questionable NHL goaltending can manage.

So another top pick in the Oilers' perpetual rebuild will join Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as the franchise saviors, Edmonton's Holy Trinity, if you will. Nail Yakupov, the Russian forward playing in Sarnia is the clear #1 in the midpoint rankings and Mikhail Grigorenko, the Russian forward playing in Quebec is #2. Grigorenko is just clear of #3 Matthew Dumba, the physical defensemen with power play acumen plying his trade in Red Deer.

Given that the Oilers lack any sort of defensive depth on the NHL roster, fans are rumbling about drafting a defenseman in June. But blueliners mature by the sundial, and any defenseman with an extended development timeline wouldn't be ready to contribute at a high level until Taylor Hall was UFA-eligible. That leads the Oilers back to the Russians - both labeled as gamebreakers - at the top of the first round.

It also leaves the Oilers' future in the hands of General Manager Steve Tambellini. Tambellini must find two top-end defensemen via trade or free agency, unless his scouting staff feels that Dumba or Murray will be able to contribute at a high level at the age of 18.

Poll
The Oilers are going to pick first or second overall in June. Should they take a defenseman or a forward?
Defenseman - Matthew Dumba or Ryan Murray
146 votes
Forward - Mikhail Grigorenko or Nail Yakupov
389 votes

535 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 31 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Neither. Draft BPA. If that’s Yakupov then you draft him. The GM has to build the team, not the amateur scouting department.

by RiversQ on Jan 22, 2012 11:53 AM MST via iPhone app reply actions  

Unfortunately for Oiler fans, it’s the same GM who thinks that Khabibulin had found the fountain of youth earlier in the season, and has a true talent level inside the top 6 in the league.

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by CoolJ90 on Jan 22, 2012 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed. Draft BPA, whether it’s Yakov Smirnov or some other player.

I really think they should give their all to move some players for a more established (but not Tambellini’s idea of established which really translates to “was a great player in 1992”) defenseman. Someone who’s still well in their prime.. oh like a Weber or Suter. Maybe wishful thinking, but you just never know. Stranger things have happened.

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by Racki on Jan 22, 2012 4:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Trade the top pick for a top D. Drafting a Defenseman when you need one now is too much of a gamble and they don’t need anymore forwards, especially Russians that hate hockey outside of Russia.

www.mmalinker.com

by exsanguinator on Jan 22, 2012 12:26 PM MST reply actions   1 recs

they don’t need anymore forwards, especially Russians that hate hockey outside of Russia.

I hope that’s sarcasm.

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by CoolJ90 on Jan 22, 2012 3:51 PM MST up reply actions  

Corey Graham was on Nation Radio yesterday talking about the top CHL defensive prospects. According to the scouts he’s talked to, and based on his own experiences with Griffin, It’s his opinion that Murray is THE best defenseman in the draft bar none. The next tier of prospects includes Dumba, Reinhart, and another prospect whose name escapes me (i beleive he is injured at the moment). Dumba’s offense is seen as a big question mark at the next level, and the hits he throws in the WHL would likely be penalties/suspensions in the NHL this year. He is also a bit of a gong-show in his own end – the parallel that I draw is Grebeshkov (if he makes it).

Reinhart is supposed to be much more proffesional – ready. WIth so much family in the game already, he’s got great habits, is a good lockeroom guy, and is much more mature. Because his game is based on good deciions, good passes, and rubbing guys out on the boards, he’s also much safer – those items are much more likely to translate. And his 6’4" frame is much more projectable in the NHL.

Taking dumba is a big gamble. If the Oil don’t get Murray, They better take Griffin. Gambling on first round picks is a great way to score more Plantes…

by Permaculture on Jan 22, 2012 1:06 PM MST reply actions  

Doesn’t the CHL have even stricter rules when it comes to hitting compared to the NHL? I find it curious that his WHL hits would be suspendable playing in the NHL.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

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by dawgbone98 on Jan 22, 2012 9:52 PM MST up reply actions  

I’ve seen Dumba land a few beauty hits, and thought they were clean. He’s got great timing.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 22, 2012 10:14 PM MST up reply actions  

Reiley or Pouliot. One of those two was likely the other D man you were thinking of (along with Dumba, Murray and Reinhart, they form the “Big Five” from the dub).

With regards to your point: I am in complete agreement. Murray seems the most NHL-ready and has great puck moving skills and great awareness. I’m not too familiar on the games of Reinhart, Riely and Pouliot to be able to choose between them (although considering the recent history of Pouliots from the draft, I’m a bit leery of staking a pick on any more prospects that share the name, related or not).

I am not fond of Dumba tho. His game reminds me of , albeit without the shot. Too high risk for me.

by Trites on Jan 23, 2012 1:14 AM MST up reply actions  

Chris Pronger
Dion Phaneuf
Niklas Kronwall

Don’t mind me. Just testing the filters to solve this mystery comparison.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jan 23, 2012 11:47 AM MST up reply actions  

Who is this phantom enigma of a comparison – I MUST KNOW.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jan 23, 2012 11:48 AM MST up reply actions  

i like to draft a new management, could I?

bring Sheldon Souray back!

by Screaming69 on Jan 22, 2012 1:06 PM MST reply actions  

Everybody agrees that this team needs help on the backend, and I agree that management is probably unlikely to be able to build a good team, but Yakupov is honestly just too far removed from the rest of the pack, particularly the defenders, to be passed over imho. Although we could realistically pick as low as third.

by Adam Dyck on Jan 22, 2012 1:32 PM MST reply actions  

Trade the pick

Acquire Weber or Suter (if they are willing to sign an extension). If not, draft BPA.

If you can grab Gleason before the deadline (again, if he would be willing to sign an extension) do it. Anything the Oilers can do to bolster their reputation as an NHL club before the end of this season is worthwhile.

Edmonton needs to show their young players they want to build with them, not sit idly by and wait for another lottery pick. Players want to win, and all this talk of “they see what we are doing here”, is flawed because the OIlers aren’t ‘doing’ anything. There has literally been a 2 point advancement over 3 consecutive seasons, where is the progress?

Chicago and Pittsburgh used their forward momentum to sign additional complementary players, and retain the talent they already had (see: Hossa, Campbell, Sharp; Martin, Michalek, Orpik).

Re-sign Hemsky, R-sign Smyth. Trade our pick (or the next one) for PROVEN NHL caliber talent (mainly D men). Show the league and the kids that the “sucking for picks” period is over and that it is now time for accountability. If done right, the Oilers might be to change the league’s perception of them, and they MIGHT be able to add a key piece during UFA (I’m talking a Parise-like talent, not a Barker maybe).

by Trites on Jan 22, 2012 1:32 PM MST reply actions  

There is something seriously wrong when the kids (see: Jordan Eberle on After Hours last night) can identify what ails the team (Eberle specifically addressed the need for D support who can distribute the puck to the forwards), yet management cannot.

Management specifically said that another lottery pick was no longer in the plan, and that playoffs were the goal by which to be measured. So when the D was shown to be a weakness (in the first 20 games of the season!), why has it still been not addressed 47 games in? Even worse, why was nothing done when the Defence that had been proven to weak as-is in the first 20 games suffered injuries to its top two players?

If a 21 year old sophomore on the team can recognize the team’s greatest weakness, why has the GM in charge been unable to remotely address (or recognize) the problem when he has, essentially, established a lottery-place finish as failure?

by Trites on Jan 22, 2012 1:44 PM MST up reply actions  

I thought about this some more… if we had the last 4 years worth of first rounders (and changed nothing else)… we’d still not be very good (and that’d add Tavares and Stamkos to our team). If we don’t have D men that can’t stop the puck going in AND adequately feed high end forwards we’re screwed. If we don’t have adequate goaltending we’re screwed. If we don’t have some more veteran forwards to kill penalties, win draws and be effective both ways we’re screwed. This team is so unbalanced it drives me crazy… hell we could get both Yakupov and Grigorenko and it won’t solve the problem (Hell, those 2 and Kuznetsov was not able to win the WJHC because the Russians were weak on D just like us). We’re a World Junior Championships All Star Team.

by Czechboy on Jan 22, 2012 4:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Couldn’t agree more with everyone above… it’s managements job to build a team not scouting. They need to get some qualty NHL players in the lineup for next season (not could’ve beens, gonna be’s or ‘were drafted in round 1 5 years ago’ players but PROVEN players). Create some packages (with our first overall pick) and nab a stud or two who are signed for at least 2 years and who’s wives don’t hate Edmonton. Another high end prospect will not solve our problems at all … namely no defensive depth and average goaltending. Also, sign Hemsky and sign Smyth (for much less than he has now). Trade Khabi at the trade deadline for any draft pick you can get (Detroit’s 6th round pick sounds excellent to me for him) and clear him off the books.. the experiment failed. Now sign any number of good goalies to join Dubynk while our young goalies develop. I’d think trading pieces like Gagner, our Number 1 pick, Khabi and one of the awesome 3 Swedes would fetch a good return. Suter in Nashville would be great. Weber would be ideal. Even a guy like Z. Michalek would do wonders (assuming his health returns) although I’d want more than that. 2 Top 4 D men would be great as well.

by Czechboy on Jan 22, 2012 1:42 PM MST reply actions  

speaking of injuries, how about a competent medical staff?

www.mmalinker.com

by exsanguinator on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Injuries are also pure bad luck… how you deal with them is another thing. The Flyers are also having a tonne of injury problems yet continue to persevere… they lost Pronger for the season, Jagr is in and out, Briere is out, Schenn’s been out a lot, Timonen playing injured, Giroux has been out, JVR is out… they even traded away Carter and Richards.

by Czechboy on Jan 22, 2012 4:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Why would the Red Wings take Khabi? Thats ridiculous.

by samspade on Jan 22, 2012 2:17 PM MST up reply actions  

My point being that the Red Wings always finish high so their 6th round pick would be near the end of the round. Just trying to point out that any pick would be worth it… next time I’ll be more specific like ‘the 200th overall pick would be just fine’.

by Czechboy on Jan 22, 2012 3:52 PM MST up reply actions  

You are missing my point.

Cap space is an asset, and Khabi costs 3.75mil this year and next. Why are the Wings, a team competing for a Stanley Cup and therefore trying to get as much bang for buck out of their cap dollars as possible, using cap space on a Khabi when (A) the have Howard (B) there are platoon/backup goalies to be had for cheap © Khabi isn’t that great.

by samspade on Jan 22, 2012 7:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Samspade… did you even read my reply? Try rereading it.

by Czechboy on Jan 22, 2012 7:40 PM MST up reply actions  

" But blueliners mature by the sundial…,"

Nice generalization, but we have seen some examples of top 5 dimen picks contributing early. Hedman, Larsson, Doughty. Wouldn’t shock me if gudbranson climbs the learning curve a lot more quickly than sundial pace, assuming that means slow.

If the scouting staff believe there is another Doughty, Larsson or Hedman available when the Oilers come up to pick they would be crazy not to pick that player, given how rare and important they are.. If there is not one of those players available, then pick a forward.

by gcw_rocks on Jan 23, 2012 6:29 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

If you go deepr in the draft, there are other examples, yes. Kulikov in FLA, Dion for the Flames, but the odds seem to drop off outside of the top 5.

by gcw_rocks on Jan 23, 2012 12:01 PM MST up reply actions  

And you still have guys like Erik Johnson, Jack Johnson, Luke Schenn, and Zach Bogosian who are taking longer to learn the ropes (or may never at all).

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I believe in next year.

by red army line on Jan 23, 2012 1:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Not saying drafting a d-man is without risk. Looking since the lock out, the d-men drafted in the top 5 are: Erik Johnson, Hickey (which was an off-the-board pick), Alzner, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, Schenn, Hedman, Gudbranson, and Larsson. Other than Hickey, there is no total flop there, and most have played meaningful minutes for thier teams during thier ELC. Hall’s 5 years away from free agency at the end of this season. To assume a pick of Dumba or Murray wouldn’t contibute during those 5 years is stretching reality to fit what seems to be a bias.

And since the only way (the soon-to-be extended) Tambo knows how to procure players is through the draft, the only real hope is Murray is the next Doughty/Larsson. Otherwise this team we are doomed to 3-4 more years of dreadful defence waiting for marincin, gernat, musil, and Klefbom to be ready.

by gcw_rocks on Jan 23, 2012 3:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Yet another forward coming

Since when do the Oilers ever do what they shoulddo. They will pick another forward first like they always do, and then they will proceed to try to patch the defence together AGAIN.

by Marvellous on Jan 23, 2012 11:27 AM MST reply actions  

Guys, you’re just talking. Talking, “la-la-la-la”, like this is business as usual. It’s not. You’re not even looking at the problem. What’s the problem? Derek, what’s the problem? Bruce, what’s the problem? GCW, what’s the problem?

The problem we’re trying to solve is that there are smart teams and there are stupid teams. Then there’s fifty of crap, and then there’s us – the Oil – the laughing stock of the NHL.

We talk about Renney this and Tambo that, draft a defenseman, take the BPA. I’ll tell you what we need, we need to get rid of Kevin Lowe.You want to talk about old-school and stupid all in one – that, my friends is Kevin Lowe. NOTHING will change with this team as long as Lowe is at the management helm. End of story. You can draft a d-man or acquire one or whatever only to be sabotaged by Lowe’s ineptitude by giving some lighting in an ‘06 bottle a ridiculous contract. We ought to start an Occupy Rexall movement until change happens. Who’s with me?

by SoCalOil on Jan 23, 2012 12:57 PM MST reply actions  

Oh, I agree. It’s time for a house cleaning.

by gcw_rocks on Jan 23, 2012 3:42 PM MST up reply actions  

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