Taylor Hall & Eric Belanger WOWY, A Tale Of Two Seasons

by Derek Zona on Jan 17, 2012 10:30 AM MST in Analysis

Taylor Hall and Eric Belanger have been on the ice for a total of four scoring chances thus far in 2011-12. Their paths don't often intersect, so their WOWYs should give us an idea, by proxy, of the strength of their linemates. Call it the transitive property of scoring chances.

All data compiled and published by Dennis King and mc79hockey.com

	With Hall			Without Hall			Hall Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
10	24	25	0.490	123	145	0.459	113	98	0.536
14	79	68	0.537	67	89	0.429	58	55	0.513
83	43	37	0.538	65	80	0.448	94	86	0.522
89	21	22	0.488	70	93	0.429	116	101	0.535
93	93	74	0.557	54	67	0.446	44	49	0.473

5	46	34	0.575	109	137	0.443	91	89	0.506
6	9	11	0.450	47	63	0.427	128	112	0.533
13	11	17	0.393	22	31	0.415	126	106	0.543
24	35	43	0.449	76	110	0.409	102	80	0.560
25	16	15	0.516	51	61	0.455	121	108	0.528
33	13	15	0.464	35	43	0.449	124	108	0.534
44	40	33	0.548	60	79	0.432	97	90	0.519
58	41	39	0.513	83	114	0.421	96	84	0.533
77	53	33	0.616	103	119	0.464	84	90	0.483

Exactly one player has been better without Hall and shockingly, it's Cam Barker. Every other player is worse, and significantly so, without Hall. Without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Tom Gilbert, however, Hall is underwater.

	With Belanger			Without Belanger			Belanger Without
#	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%	CF	CA	%
14	8	13	0.381	138	144	0.489	76	106	0.418
28	50	71	0.413	58	61	0.487	34	48	0.415
37	3	14	0.176	25	32	0.439	81	105	0.435
55	21	19	0.525	25	36	0.410	63	100	0.387
89	28	40	0.412	63	75	0.457	56	79	0.415
91	27	30	0.474	23	22	0.511	57	89	0.390
94	17	21	0.447	138	153	0.474	67	98	0.406

5	26	41	0.388	129	130	0.498	58	78	0.426
6	16	19	0.457	40	55	0.421	68	100	0.405
13	7	12	0.368	26	36	0.419	77	107	0.418
24	20	31	0.392	91	122	0.427	64	88	0.421
25	13	18	0.419	54	58	0.482	71	101	0.413
33	13	11	0.542	35	47	0.427	71	108	0.397
44	27	27	0.500	73	85	0.462	57	92	0.383
58	21	47	0.309	103	106	0.493	63	72	0.467
77	24	28	0.462	132	124	0.516	60	91	0.397

Belanger on the other hand, is dragging on his teammates, at least in the scoring chance department. Only four players are better with Belanger than without: Ben Eager, Ryan Whitney, Colten Teubert and Corey Potter. Eager is easy to explain - his regular linemates, Lennart Petrell and Anton Lander should both in the AHL right now.

Of particular interest are the numbers with Magnus Paajarvi and Sam Gagner. Working as a line, those three are 12 CF - 9 CA (57%), which means that Gagner and Belanger without Paajarvi are 16 CF - 31 CA (34%) and Paajarvi and Belanger without Gagner are 15 CF - 21 CA (42%). It's far too small of a sample size to make inferences on who is driving the bus, but we can see how much both Paajarvi and Gagner's numbers are affected when on the ice with Belanger.

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Comments

Could the case of Belanger’s teammates be that along with joining his line they also face tougher competition? If they are getting an easier ride away from him, it would explain the improvement of their SC’s. I’m not familiar enough with QUALCOMP to check myself, but is there the available data to do a QUALCOMP WOWY?

by Stephenk on Jan 17, 2012 10:54 AM MST reply actions

after half a season, i think he has been given his chance. maybe they can throw him on the ice for defensive zone face-offs on the PK and nothing else? the few times he does have a scoring chance it looks like he’s playing catch with the other team’s goalie, right into the mid-section.

by dessert1111 on Jan 17, 2012 11:36 AM MST reply actions

The Eager-Belanger combination looks interesting. Not sure who the heck you play on the other wing, but maybe if you can find the right winger maybe you have a 4th line.

by gcw_rocks on Jan 17, 2012 1:04 PM MST reply actions

I was thinking the same. Hartikainen could slide into that spot and that could be a decent 4th line

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Jan 17, 2012 2:42 PM MST up reply actions

The line they had going when those two were playing together was Belanger, Eager, and Jones, which seems like a pretty reasonable fourth line to me (and it better be given the price).

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Jan 17, 2012 3:16 PM MST up reply actions

Jones will never see the 4th line again with Renney, he’s either shipped out or plays higher in the lineup for all of time.

The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years

by OilLeak on Jan 17, 2012 4:04 PM MST up reply actions

In addition to ZS and QoC, doesn’t WOWY also directly relate to what other options are available? Belanger is clearly not the best centerman on the team but gets put into tough situations.

When not playing with Hall, other players are either playing the toughs with Smyth or a choice of AHLers/PB candidates. Seems like he’s going to cleanup on the WOWY for some time.

WOWY or not, I think it can be agreed Belanger’s stick is the black hole of offense right now.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jan 17, 2012 3:19 PM MST reply actions

When not playing with Hall, other players are either playing the toughs with Smyth or a choice of AHLers/PB candidates. Seems like he’s going to cleanup on the WOWY for some time.

That’ an interesting point.

Before the last rash of injuries hit, they were running 94-93-14 and 4-89-83, so if the kids come back and they don’t trade Hemsky, then there might be better information.

by Woodguy on Jan 17, 2012 3:49 PM MST reply actions

Belanger is a useful 4th line centre who can PK, and help out on defensive zone draws. Renney not being able to realize this is a testament to Renney’s incompetence.

There is no problem with Paajarvi. All one has to do is don’t play him with Belanger.

Notice that a good defenseman (Gilbert) supercharges Hall’s stats. Ryan Murray please.

The Oilers have enough elite forward prospects. They need defensemen who can get them the puck in stride and on the tape.

by godot10 on Jan 17, 2012 4:28 PM MST reply actions

When has Belanger ever been a 4th liner?

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98

by dawgbone98 on Jan 18, 2012 11:12 AM MST up reply actions

Belanger’s career ATOI is 16:28. Over 10.5 seasons he has ranged from 13:25 to 17:50 minutes, topping 15:30 in each of the last nine years.

I guess it would be possible to be getting fourth EV minutes with a shit ton of special teams time, but that’s not exactly my definition of a fourth liner. Although that definition has applied to Belanger a couple of indivdual games this year it certainly hasn’t in general terms.

Oilers fan through thick, thin and anorexic. Writer for The Cult of Hockey.

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 18, 2012 5:16 PM MST up reply actions

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