Oilers' Adjusted Scoring Chances By Quality Of Competition

NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 22: Tom Gilbert #77, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins #93, and Taylor Hall #4 of the Edmonton Oilers celebrate a goal against Pekka Rinne #35 of the Nashville Predators at Bridgestone Arena on November 22, 2011 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

The numbers onslaught continues with a look at adjusted scoring chances by quality of opponent, or Corsi Rel QoC. I've grouped the Oilers by line according to the quality of competition they've faced in order to get an understanding of how each is performing against his closest peer group.

All data compiled and published by Dennis King and mc79hockey.com. Zonestart adjustment methodology courtesy the incomparable George Ays. Quality of competition data courtesy the dashing Gabriel Desjardins and behindthenet.ca.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Shawn Horcoff
0.485 4.092 4.342 -0.250
Ryan Smyth
0.477 4.029 4.418 -0.389
Ales Hemsky
0.460 3.925 4.605 -0.679

Horcoff and Smyth have been moved between roles throughout the season. They're either together against the toughs, or with the broken up chosen line supporting a kid or a couple of kids. They've combined to go -24 in adjusted chances against the toughs.

Hemsky has been all over the place since returning from injury, and seems to have just now regained his health.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Ryan Jones
0.480 3.615 3.915 -0.299
Sam Gagner
0.430 3.044 4.029 -0.984
Taylor Hall
0.495 4.27 4.356 -0.085

Jones spent time on the toughs line with Horcoff and Smyth and on the toughs line and with Belanger on a third line. His first 16 games were astounding, but no one on the team fell harder in the next 25 games. Gagner has split his time between a second-toughs line with Belanger, a third line with Belanger and Jones and a second-toughs line with Hall and Hemsky. He's lagging behind, but only Jones spent more time with Belanger on the ice.

Hall is the closes on the team to breakeven and he's done it against second-tough minutes.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Jordan Eberle
0.431 3.771 4.971 -1.200
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
0.455 3.893 4.661 -0.768
Eric Belanger
0.424 2.97 4.03 -1.060

Eberle and Hopkins have faced third line competition and are giving up too many chances going back the other way. Their both young and have so much to learn about the NHL game and the defense should come. The same can't be said of Belanger, who should simply be better than this.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Magnus Paajarvi
0.484 2.76 2.943 -0.183
Anton Lander
0.407 2.202 3.203 -1.000
Ben Eager 0.441 2.828 3.589 -0.761
Lennart Petrell
0.373 1.784 3.003 -1.219

The guy that sticks out here is Lander. Paajarvi has done alright by himself despite the scoring slump and Petrell was a gamble to be an actual NHL player. Lander is just struggling and should be in the AHL playing 22 minutes a night.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/60 ADJ CA/60 ADJ CD/15
Tom Gilbert
0.504 3.641 3.587 0.054
Ladislav Smid
0.469 3.429 3.883 -0.454

Four years of playing the toughs with every partner under the sun and Gilbert finally has a stable, not great, but stable partner. He's facing everything the opponents can throw at him and he's the only Oiler in the black. He's been an underrated defenseman for three seasons, but this season he's the best defender in the division and people still argue if he's worth $4 million per season.

Smid has always been okay when he's had a guy who can move the puck on his right side. This season, he's become the yin to Gilbert's yang. He's not breaking even yet, but he's getting there.
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Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Jeff Petry
0.432 3.391 4.453 -1.062
Theo Peckham
0.406 3.304 4.835 -1.531

This is what happens when you put a sixth defenseman and a seventh defenseman on the second pairing. Neither of these guys is ready for this type of workload or this type of competition and the numbers show it in stark detail. If the Oilers had some actual defensive depth to start the season, this wouldn't have happened.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Corey Potter
0.445 3.336 4.166 -0.831
Andy Sutton
0.466 3.291 3.778 -0.487

Potter was a blessing through the first fifth of the season, but since returning from injury, he's fallen off each game. His play has been markedly different, so his health might be in play. Of course, he has faced much tougher competition since returning, so it might not be the injury.

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