Edmonton Oilers' Zonestart Adjusted Scoring Chances

One of the recurring themes for the 2011-12 Oilers has been sheltered minutes and who is receiving and benefiting from them. Tom Renney has been most protective of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle - the two have played against third-level competition with an inordinate amount of offensive zonestarts. So while the raw scoring chances tell a story (Hall and Gilbert are amazing), adjusted scoring chances tell a larger, more detailed story.

Adjusting the scoring chance data for starting position puts two-thirds of the chosen line, the players who have received the greatest benefit from Renney's line matching and zonestart work, on equal footing with the veteran line, who have carried the load for the Oilers thus far.

Thanks to the incomparable George Ays, we can do that.

George took the data from his own scoring chance project for the Rangers, plus the data from Neil Greenberg's data for the Capitals and modeled scoring chances as JLikens modeled Corsi. While the sample size is extremely small and subject to enormous variance, George should be able to zero in on a more targeted number as the Scoring Chance Project wraps up 2011-12. The results of of George's model shows "...an offensive zone start would be worth 0.425 scoring chances."

All data compiled and published by Dennis King and mc79hockey.com.

Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Taylor Hall 0.495 4.270 4.356 -0.085
Shawn Horcoff 0.485 4.092 4.342 -0.250
Magnus Paajarvi 0.484 2.760 2.943 -0.183
Ryan Jones 0.480 3.615 3.915 -0.300
Ryan Smyth 0.477 4.029 4.418 -0.390
Ales Hemsky 0.460 3.925 4.605 -0.680
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.455 3.893 4.661 -0.769
Ben Eager 0.441 2.828 3.589 -0.761
Jordan Eberle 0.431 3.771 4.971 -1.200
Sam Gagner 0.430 3.044 4.029 -0.984
Eric Belanger 0.424 2.970 4.030 -1.060
Anton Lander 0.407 2.202 3.203 -1.000
Lennart Petrell 0.373 1.784 3.003 -1.219
  • Hall once again leads the team in chances for and chance differential.
  • Given their qualcomp, Horcoff, Jones and Smyth are notable in that they aren't getting run over.
  • Hemsky's numbers are disappointing, but hopefully they can be blamed on his ailing shoulders. He's looked like a different player over the last few games.
  • Eberle has been an offensive dynamo, but he's giving it back at the other end, moreso than any other Oiler. He's got the second-worst differential on the team and he's facing third-level competition.
  • Nugent-Hopkins is struggling defensively and I'd be interested to see the adjusted chances for other teams, especially the forwards playing against third-toughs.
  • Paajarvi's numbers are worth a deeper look. He's almost at break-even, a surprise considering the negative press he's receiving.
  • On a healthy Oilers team, Lennart Petrell is unlikely to see the NHL again.
Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/15 ADJ CA/15 ADJ CD/15
Tom Gilbert 0.504 3.641 3.587 0.054
Ladislav Smid 0.469 3.429 3.883 -0.454
Andy Sutton 0.466 3.291 3.778 -0.487
Colten Teubert 0.457 4.177 4.967 -0.789
Corey Potter 0.445 3.336 4.166 -0.831
Jeff Petry 0.432 3.391 4.453 -1.062
Ryan Whitney 0.426 3.265 4.402 -1.137
Theo Peckham 0.406 3.304 4.835 -1.531
Cam Barker 0.392 2.542 3.948 -1.406
  • As if we needed more evidence that Gilbert is an outstanding player, he's the only Oiler in the black in adjusted chances and he's facing the toughs on a bottom-feeding team.
  • Colten Teubert has been a high-event defender thus far, but that's to be expected of all rookie defensemen, especially those that are 10th on the depth chart on a healthy team.
  • As if we needed more evident that Barker is not a good player...
Player ADJ CH% ADJ CF/60 ADJ CA/60 ADJ CD/60
Alex Plante 0.678 5.827 2.761 3.065
Ryan O`Marra 0.659 2.359 1.219 1.140
Linus Omark 0.372 2.278 3.839 -1.561
Teemu Hartikainen 0.303 2.195 5.052 -2.857
Taylor Chorney 0.301 1.672 3.875 -2.203
Josh Green 0.273 2.298 6.131 -3.833
Darcy Hordichuk 0.150 0.774 4.387 -3.613
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