Oilers' Scoring Chances Last 25 Games
by Derek Zona on Jan 12, 2012 12:30 PM MST
in Analysis
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Through sixteen games, the Edmonton Oilers were 9-5-2 and cruising. We knew it wasn't sustainable, but we didn't know it would be this bad. Beginning with a 6-3 loss to Chicago on November 13th, the Oilers went 7-17-1 over their next 25 games. The raw scoring chance carnage is after the jump.
All data recorded and compiled by the indomitable Dennis King at mc79hockey.com
I'm going to present this data without comment. Remember this is all raw data, nothing is adjusted for zonestart. First up is the regular forward crew:
| Player | TSC | TSCA | CH% |
| Taylor Hall | 84 | 75 | 0.528 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 89 | 87 | 0.506 |
| Jordan Eberle | 90 | 100 | 0.474 |
| Ryan Smyth | 95 | 107 | 0.470 |
| Ales Hemsky | 86 | 98 | 0.467 |
| Fwd Average | 0.450 | ||
| Shawn Horcoff | 88 | 109 | 0.447 |
| Sam Gagner | 72 | 90 | 0.444 |
| Ryan Jones | 65 | 84 | 0.436 |
| Ben Eager | 33 | 43 | 0.434 |
| Magnus Paajarvi | 23 | 32 | 0.418 |
| Eric Belanger | 53 | 78 | 0.405 |
| Anton Lander | 28 | 46 | 0.378 |
Then the regular defensemen:
| Player | TSC | TSCA | CH% |
| Tom Gilbert | 95 | 89 | 0.516 |
| Andy Sutton | 41 | 40 | 0.506 |
| Ladislav Smid | 90 | 111 | 0.448 |
| Def Average | 0.447 | ||
| Colten Teubert | 44 | 55 | 0.444 |
| Corey Potter | 47 | 60 | 0.439 |
| Theo Peckham | 80 | 109 | 0.423 |
| Jeff Petry | 92 | 130 | 0.414 |
| Ryan Whitney | 41 | 60 | 0.406 |
And the goaltenders, if that's your thing:
| Player | TSC | TSCA | CH% |
| Nikolai Khabibulin | 168 | 205 | 0.450 |
| Devan Dubnyk | 97 | 132 | 0.424 |
The irregulars:
| Player | TSC | TSCA | CH% |
| Alex Plante | 8 | 5 | 0.615 |
| Ryan O`Marra | 2 | 2 | 0.500 |
| Teemu Hartikainen | 5 | 8 | 0.385 |
| Josh Green | 5 | 11 | 0.313 |
| Taylor Chorney | 5 | 13 | 0.278 |
| Lennart Petrell | 9 | 26 | 0.257 |
| Darcy Hordichuk | 3 | 17 | 0.150 |
And finally, again, without comment:
| Player | TSC | TSCA | CH% |
| Team | 273 | 337 | 0.448 |
| Tom Gilbert | 95 | 89 | 0.516 |
| w/o Gilbert | 178 | 248 | 0.418 |
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If you adjust for Zonestarts (he’s 11/11 amongst Oilers fowards with > 30 games) he might not be that bad off.
Adjusted Chances
Horcoff, Jones, Smyth are still 3-4-5 in adjusted chances for the season.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Derek, it’s pretty clear from this that a few of the players are really terrible at creating scoring chances. For the Oilers, anyways.
Thinking about how much more time JOnes has seen with Belanger recently, I can’t help but wonder how much is him, and how much is his linemate(s).
Petrell, Hordichuk, Lander, Pajaarvi and Belanger have been quite aweful. Beyond aweful.
Who is making who worse? Or is it a just a critical mass of suck?
by Permaculture on Jan 12, 2012 3:45 PM MST up reply actions
I’ll have more on first half chances, including WOWYs and adjusted chances in the coming days. No matter what you do, there is one really good defenseman and one really good forward here.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Biggest fall off of any forward.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Have you decided to pretend Barker isn’t even on the team?
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Barker hasn’t played in the last 25 games, 29 actually.
I like how Oilers fans pretend to be educated but then run players like Gilbert out of town for being soft…….
Jesus I didn’t think it had been that long. Maybe his absence is the reason the team is struggling.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
by ryanbatty on Jan 12, 2012 12:59 PM MST up reply actions 7 recs
So, you're telling me ...
..that we can expect improvement, around the beginning of February
So, what you’re saying is Gilbert needs to be traded, because he doesn’t fit in.
The Edmonton Oilers, keeping opposition fans happy for the last 6 years
Love the picture on this post too. I know just how Gilbert feels.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Ha. Gold. I didn’t even roll over the photo to see that until now.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Interesting to note that because this data includes all of the 6-on-5 time, it actually flatters the Oilers a little. The goalies combine for just 44.0%.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
Good Point
I actually do find it interesting. With the goalie pulled theyve created 8 more chances, but there were no chances against. Do they not count simply because the goalie is missing, or have we not had an empty goal against? Seems unlikely…. Maybe they didnt count because they were shot from the opposite end, or just werent worthy of counting?
Insert Witty Comment Here
Dennis doesn’t count ENG as scoring chances.
His reasoning is that when you have an EN, you play differently, especially when you lose the puck.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Tactical contributor to the Copper & Blue and just as boring on the twitters... @dawgbone98
He’d probably just hurt himself if they did.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Why not all 41 of the first games?
I know they achieved far beyond their ability, but its not like those games didn’t happen.
by Woodguy on Jan 12, 2012 4:07 PM MST via mobile reply actions
True, but keeping those games out distorts the data if you want to look at the whole season.
Even very good teams like BOS, VAN, DET etc, have stretches of games where the results are unsustainable and on the right end of their particular bell curve. Doesn’t make them less relevant.
The data now looks like “look how shitty they are” as opposed to “here are the numbers for the first half”
Do the Oilers really need help to look shitty?
No they definately don’t need help with that! But I do like looking at the team in larger chunks, such as Scott’s fantastic 10 game rolling averages. The 25 games used above is a significant amount of games and I think it shows the trend of this club more as unlike the start of the year, the team will not again be as healthy, will not surprise anyone on the PP or with the kid line and I really doubt the goaltending/defence will be anywhere as capable again the season.
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