The One-Percenters
Even if the NHL didn't have a salary cap, getting excellent value on one's dollar would be extremely important. But the existence of the cap puts a real spotlight on value, to the point that straight up performance isn't as much of a focus for many fans as performance per dollar. It's been a pretty interesting shift from those halcyon pre-lockout days when overpriced talent seemed to always find its way to New York or Toronto, Detroit, or Dallas, or one of the other big spenders.Now even those teams are looking for bargains, which brings me to the guys on the bottom of the food chain, the guys who have a cap hit of $643,000 or less, the one percenters.
My question is, which of these guys will be the very best in 2011-12? After the jump, I'll make a few suggestions, but I'm looking for more in the comments. I'll then make some executive decisions and set up a tournament bracket. When the dust clears, we'll have a community prediction for who might be the best one-percenter in the NHL for the 2011-12 season.
Nashville Predators - Niclas Bergfors ($575,000) - He's now on his fourth organization in less than two years, and Dale Tallon didn't even qualify him, and given the number of barrels filled with money he set fire to this summer, you'd probably think Bergfors was terrible. But just like Melchizedek's age, it ain't necessarily so. Bergfors played with both the Panthers and Thrashers last season so the advanced statistics are a bit jumbled, but he did end the year with a Corsi number in the black, a Relative Corsi number deep in the black, a Zoneshift that beat expectations, and all of it while playing pretty tough competition. He even scored 36 points on the year!
Chicago Blackhawks - Bryan Bickell ($541,667) - Last season was his first full year in the NHL, and it was a beauty for the 6'4'' power winger. He finished fifth on the Blackhawks in even-strength scoring with 34 points, but only had 3 points on the power play because of limited ice time. He wasn't playing the toughs, but he was making the most of his minutes, and if he earns more minutes this season (he averaged just 13:50 per game last season) he could do some real damage.
New York Islanders - Evgeni Nabokov ($570,000) - The oldster of the group signed a sweetheart deal with the Red Wings that he now gets to play out with the Islanders. He played poorly in the few KHL games he actually played last season, but his last year in the NHL was outstanding. His EV Sv% that year was .928, and the long-term trend suggests that he's an above-average netminder. At age 36, his performance is bound to fall off a cliff soon - and it may have already happened - but if he can provide quality goaltending, that's a darn good price.
New York Islanders - Frans Nielsen ($525,000) - There aren't too many forwards making minimum wage who will play almost eighteen minutes per night. Nielsen has scored more than thirty points in each of the last three seasons, and had his best offensive output last year with 44, but the story goes well beyond putting pucks in the net. Nielsen also starts in his own end a tonne and plays top six competition, and yet still comes out ahead in terms of possession. Add to that his role as the team's top PK'er and a knack for staying out of the penalty box, and you've got yourself a tremendous hockey player.
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Nielsen is the obvious guy. He should have at least one Selke already and at least another top 3.
Other suggestions: Adam McQuaid, Mark Letestu, Adam Hall
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I like those suggestions. What year do you have Nielsen winning the Selke?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 15, 2011 7:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Two years ago, I believe. I’d have to go check.
I think I voted for Clutterbuck this year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Do you always pick guys who make peanuts? I like Clutterbuck, but I probably wouldn’t have him anywhere in the top ten. I thought Bergeron would have been a great pick for the Selke this year.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 16, 2011 9:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Do you always pick guys who make peanuts?
Not always, but typically it’s those guys that are cleaning the stables.
My three finalists this year were Clutterbuck, Nielsen and Ward
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Is there any doubt that it’s Nielsen?
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I believe in next year.
He’s probably the best player under 1, 2 and 3 million as well
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Does this count ELCs? I think Bickell is a PDO mirage – decent player, not great. Nielsen would obviously be my pick for best value.
Other excellent values:
Mark Fayne – NJD – ($542,000) – Came out of nowhere to be a stalwart on NJ’s top pair last season, posted a solid corsi and even chipped in with about 1.5 shots/game. I think he could easily be a 20 minute/game, all situations, all-around player who takes on medium toughs and comes out ahead.
Dustin Jeffrey – PIT – ($575,000) – I’m convinced they tell the players in Pittsburgh that they get to play with Crosby and their eyes glaze over. What would compel someone to sign this contract? Jeffrey hasn’t become a full-time player, but he reminds me of Sergei Brylin back when the Devils had depth coming out of their ears. A player who can play multiple forward positions and not look out of place anywhere.
I see someone already got to Mark Letestu, whose contract should’ve been outlawed by the Geneva Convention.
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“$643,000 or less” is a tough criteria to hit LOL. I think “under 1 mil” would make this more fun.
I think that player will probably be one of those four you listed or some AHL callup.
Anyway, here are some other ones to consider:
Gragnani (BUF) – I really like his game but it looks like he may be shoved aside to accommodate the big name vets they signed.
Condra (OTT) – seems to got pretty decent game from my limited viewings.
McGinn (SJS) – impressed me in the playoffs but don’t think his type of contributions will be noticeable outside of San Jose.
Am really tempted to name our old friend MA Pouliot as the AHL lottery pick but don’t even know where the hack he’s playing. So I’ll go with another guy with the same birthyear:
Mancari (VAN)
"$643,000 or less" is a tough criteria to hit LOL.
It’s the bottom 1%!
I think "under 1 mil" would make this more fun.
Then they aren’t 1 percenters.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Pouliot’s in Phoenix. They traded a pick to get him too, so I think he’ll get a decent shot at making the team. He’s got things a bit harder now because of Langkow’s arrival though.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 15, 2011 7:48 PM MDT up reply actions
My hopes for Bergfors are high
But it does make you wonder why he’s been tossed around from organization to organization so frequently. Maybe he cranks out eye-stinging dog farts in the dressing room.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and founder of HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to hockey equipment and accessories.
Looking at Capgeek, Macdonald (NYI), Ritola (TBL), Brandon Sutter (CAR), Spurgeon (MIN), Benn (DAL) (they have two J. Benn’s…), Stoner (MIN),
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I believe in next year.
Brandon Sutter would be great, but I’m pretty sure that Brett Sutter is the cheap one. I do like the two Minnesota “D” though.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 15, 2011 7:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Shoot. So I almost screwed up with the two J. Benns, and did screw up with the two B. Sutters.
Next thing you know, we’ll have Vyacheslav and Viktor Kozlov playing together. Or Nicklas Backstrom and Niklas Backstrom. Jordan and Jared Staal.
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 15, 2011 8:56 PM MDT up reply actions
The Islanders signed MacDonald to "the Nielsen deal"
Which means: “We know you’re better than you think you are, so we’ll give you more years than you expected and a one-way deal, and you play for minimum wage. Deal?”
Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.
Does anyone understand how Karl Alzner’s contract works? NHL numbers has his cap hit at about 750k, with his salary in ‘12-’13 being about the same as a regional VP at Telus.
It’s narily outside the 1% bracket, but appears to be one hell of a great deal. Unless the Caps are blackmailing poor Karl, somethings amiss.
by John Chambers on Sep 15, 2011 9:50 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
Possibility #2: Karl is not a smart man
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That’s not right. The information at Capgeek on Alzner is correct (unless the MSM messed it up as well).
Yeah, I thought he’d be getting something like a Hjalmarsson deal, or at least $2.5-$3 million. Not only is the price great, but his price should keep Carlson’s price down (he’s RFA in 2012), and Carlson should keep Green’s price down (RFA in 2012 as well).
Red Line Station and @RedArmyLine, featuring coverage of the most frustrating team in the NHL
I believe in next year.
by red army line on Sep 16, 2011 7:52 AM MDT up reply actions
Green is arbitration eligible, so Alzner’s contract really doesn’t have anything to do with his. I also think even if they do manage to strongarm Carlson into taking an Alzner-like deal, they will pay for it in his 3rd contract.
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Thanks. Looks like Karl’s in about the 8th percentile, but it’s still a helluva value contract.
by John Chambers on Sep 16, 2011 2:35 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
One more year of “acquiring elite talent” and lets flesh out the team with a few of these guys (maybe even go up to 2%) and get it going. Please.
Really? One more year?
Six years in the wasteland?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Don’t you mean “forty” and “wilderness”?
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 16, 2011 8:11 AM MDT up reply actions

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