The Fans Rank 'Em: The Oilers' Top 25 Under 25

Based on Jr performance, Nhle, NHL performance, accomplishments in NHL, draft pedigree and age how gagner is not ranked number 2. None of the prospects ahead of him had scored more in a season in the jrs (and eberle played two more older seasons), scored as much in the nhl (though hall did score more goals in a season than same). RNH and Hall can claim draft pedigree. Eberle is only 6 months younger and played more sheler minutes in his rookie 20 year old season than gagner had ever played and still did not reach gagners rookie total and barely beat his 20 year old season (playing an easier position and with better linemates). I really see where Derek is now coming from in his rankings. The fan rankings just than again shows how we are willing to throw our prospects under the bus.

Gagner was playing with two raw players his first year, his second year he was thrown around, his third year a few better players and his fourth year he as playin mixed again. id ont see any shelter. Eberle had horcoff the majority of the season, was not asked until the season was over to carry the offense. I love eberlel but i think his so called greatness is perceived by oilers fans just do to his play at the junior level internationally. Dont forget gagner did this in the super series. He dominated that by a very wide margin in which tavares an turris were suppose to dominate. He also did not have the oppertunity to dominate at the wjc then next two years as eberle did as he was in the nhl. Gagner is also youngr fohs draft year than ebele. Not everyone i throwing him under the bus but this list by the fans is based on emotionally and impatience. If gagners rookie year was last year and he put up 30 points people would not be complaining. All i am saying is give me a sufficient quanititaive argument that paajari or eberle are better than gagner. You wont find enough that will out weight what gagner has on them. And you can make your qualitative points all you want, but that is strictly opinion.

okay, i will give you that also but what would you base eberle getting rated higher on the list or paajarvi. What have they done in the NHL that gagner hasnt. What did they do better in the jrs han gagner. Eberle spent 3 years there and never put up th numbers gagner did. (yes he was on a better line) but his 17 year old numbers were better than eberles 19 year old numbers, and age in the chl makes a huge difference. Same with RNH. But he is given the benefit because of his draft pedigree. So why is gagner not given the same courtesy. Because people are impatient.

So now we are at a qualitative measurement. Opinions are highly influential. The whole world jrs eberle is going to be a star thing and gagner four years in the nhl affects a persons opinion when in real life they are pretty much at the same development physically, and age wise. So how does one rate him on seen him good, when the numbers are in the others favour.

Eberle is going to be really good, i just dont see how he is rated higher than gagner right now. Maybe if he out performs him next year yes,

Gagner is not given the same courtesy when it comes to draft pedigree because production becomes a better estimate for true talent over time. There is a ton of variance in projecting junior level players with the limited stats available to us, so it makes more sense to consider other factors (such as draft pedigree) when evaluating these players.

On the flip side, it is basically useless to consider the draft pedigree of a ten-year veteran in the NHL, since looking at his production in the previous 3-4 years is going to be a much better estimate of his true ability.

It is definitely true that Gagner has showed more at the NHL level than MPS or RNH, so I won’t comment on these players.

Anyways, I have yet to seen a good argument as to why Gagner is a better player than Eberle right now. They have similar scoring rates, similar plus-minus’, similar corsi’s and similar PDO’s. All this is of course ignoring the fact that Eberle is almost a year younger than Gagner.

It seems like your biggest problem with Eberle is that he hasn’t produced at last year’s production level for a long enough period in the NHL. This to me is a subjective choice.

As a side note, I think this is an interesting article dealing with how reliable statistics are given how many games players have played.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/7/16/2273803/ssw-forward-g-a-pts-pim-reliability-and-regression-to-the-mean

so okay their production was the same. So based on what has been done in the nhl gagner should be rated higher, and there is only six months different in there age. 4 years of consistant 40 points season is still better than one year.

and i believe this is why derek has rated him higher than the other three prospects. and that is why i agree with him.

If we really want to nitpick, the age difference is 9 months. (Gagner AUG 1989, Eberle MAY 1990).

Second of all I don’t agree that 4 years of consistent 40 point seasons is necessarily better than one year of that same production. All it means is that, in theory, we would be more confident about Gagner’s production than Eberle’s (but likely not much more if you look at the link I posted).

I am not arguing that Eberle should absolutely be ranked ahead of Gagner, but it is Gagner is definitely not a slam dank choice over Eberle like some of you make it out to be.

so what if eberle played in the nhl since he was drafted. where would you stand with his 20 year old season with 42 points.

gagner 4 years nhl, 1 year major jr
eberle 4 years major jr, 1 year nhl

development time at competitive levels is the same, we can agree that jrs is more sheltered than the nhl, and eberles production didnt increae in jrs till he was of the dominant jr age of 19. So where is his development. I believe it is there but so do i with sams nhl development. he isnt a slam dunk over eberle, but why would magnus be rated over him

derek would you have nhle for magnus, sam and jordan for there last 5 years of hockey, i understand magnus may not have all the data. or where i could find it.