Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - #2 in the Oilers Top 25 Under 25
by Jaysen Knight on Aug 3, 2011 6:30 AM MDT
in Prospects
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PrintRyan Nugent-Hopkins: he’s a playmaker.
And our hope is that nothing else really matters.
That didn’t take long. RNH is getting vivisected. Okay. I would rather have lowered expectations and be proven wrong (hey, at one time I was leery of Stamkos... oops!) than get my hopes up too high and see them dashed. He was taken #1 overall and with that lofty position comes the magnifying glass and the scalpel. In terms of numbers analysis there isn’t much that I can say that isn’t already said:
So that means I am left with telling you why I rated him #6 overall (I had our #1, Eberle, Petry, Gagner, Paajarvi ranked ahead of RNH).
It’s simple really – he hasn’t done anything yet.
When I go through an exercise like this I place roughly equal weight on three measures:
- Upside on spec;
- Establishing play, and;
- Retaining upside on play (this measure swings positive and negative)
There are some other measures considered (the concept of ‘fits a need vs. timeline’ being one and ‘will he actually get a chance to play’ being another) but they are pretty small factors when compared to the big three.
In such a way a guy like Sam Gagner - who may never become a center who can carry the 2nd line (which I consider his ceiling btw) let alone a 1st line center who can carry his line if need be - gets ranked ahead of RNH. Gagner HAS played in the NHL, Gagner HAS established an ability to play 2nd line center with the right wings (and even 1st line if he gets great wingers) and RNH HAS NOT done either of those things.
In the same way, Jeff Petry’s established floor (albeit maybe my eyes only) of being a top-4 d-man IS the bird in the hand and he should get MUCH better. Neither Jordan Eberle nor Magnus Paarjarvi have done anything to make me think that they don’t have great futures and our #1 guy... well... he’s #1 with a bullet. Neither Cogs nor Peckham are a factor at this level because neither one retains the upside needed to rank higher on my list.
(a special case considered) Linus Omark ranks behind RNH because, as much as he HAS played effectively and I think he retains fantastic upside, it’s tough for me to say with confidence that he will get a fair shake for ice-time (AND good ice-time) on this team - I see Satan written all over this situation but unlike Satan, Omark has the ability to go back to Sweden and still earn a really good living if he ever gets tired of the run-around. All that said, maybe I should have Omark ranked higher than RNH simply because some smart GM may come calling and pick him up cheap. I don’t think Omark would be getting blockage were he playing for Detroit or Pittsburgh, do you? Yet here, it is a distinct possibility and yet one more reason (albeit a small one) why I wanted Larsson drafted over RNH - this team is shoving too many good prospects (forwards) through the system in too short a timeframe. Why commit to a long-term rebuild if you are going to short-cut and grind your evaluation time (grrrrrrrrr)?
All we have is a guy, back to RNH, who may not even be able to play in the NHL - let alone compete effectively. At least with JFJ we could delude ourselves into thinking ‘hitting’ could mean something special one day. Think about that for a second. JFJ had a LOT working for him as a prospect, his ceiling was that of a difference maker playing on the top-2 lines, but once he hit the NHL you could barely make the case that he deserved a spot on the 4th line. That is a hell of a slide.
I think RNH has amazing upside (he was the consensus #1 btw). And I think RNH will play in the NHL. But as of yet he has not and as of RIGHT NOW he has a ways to go before he outpaces his comparables. If our #1 is #1 with a bullet then this is #2 with a whimper.
Go ahead Mr. Nugent-Hopkins. Get to it.
Burns and cuts and all.
Have a great evening everyone.
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You’re reasoning is fair, Jaysen, although I am more on the optimistic side. That said, no prospect is a sure thing, not even a No.1 overall pick, and certainly not a No.1 overall pick in what’s considered a weak draft year. But I do retain the confidence that RNH is going to be a helluva player. Please lord. Please.
Werent here two comments today morning?
Damn I was gonna respond to them.
Anywho, to the person who had criticized it, I think we have read a lot about RNH and I think its better to say why he reanked other above RNH than talk about RNH himself. There are loads of articles and I like what Jaysen did rather than just talk about the player,
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Just speculation, but where would Gagner, MPS and Eberle have gone in the latest draft? Would any of them have been taken above RNH? I don’t know if any of them would.
Even if RNH would have gone ahead of them in the draft does that really mean he should be ahead of those players in these rankings?
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
no not necessarily as they are subjected to your opinion/criterea. All he is saying is that if you cant expect your #1 overall pick to outperform Eberole/Gagner then what should you be looking forward to?
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
As a #1 pick I hope RNH outperforms Eberle and Gagner. He’s the #1, those guys are supposed to be good. But even if I hope he does until I’ve seen something to indicate that he will I wouldn’t put him above players who have already established a level of play in the NHL.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I think we all use this criterion to some degree, but have different ideas about how to balance established play and potential. At some point, the fact that one player is in the NHL just isn’t as important as another player’s potential. For some, the potential of Nugent-Hopkins is enough to have him leading the pack (minus Hall). For others, it’s not enough to beat out Gagner, or maybe Eberle, or Petry, or Peckham, or Brule. Those are all guys who could be classified as “NHL players”, but we all have a line. All six of us agreed that Peckham fell on the wrong side of that line, but there was some disagreement on Petry, even though Peckham is the more “established” player. Where’s the line for you?
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by Scott Reynolds on Aug 3, 2011 10:23 AM MDT up reply actions
I think we all use this criterion to some degree, but have different ideas about how to balance established play and potential.
Well put Scott. I’d lean more to established players than to those were have no pro record to look evaluate but at some point potential does have to be accounted for. I would put less emphasis on that than others would, that’s just my preference.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I think RNH has amazing upside (he was the consensus #1 btw). And I think RNH will play in the NHL. But as of yet he has not and as of RIGHT NOW he has a ways to go before he outpaces his comparables. If our #1 is #1 with a bullet then this is #2 with a whimper.
But similar stuff could be said about Hall last season, but that did not stop people from raking him #1 last season. Would you not have had Hall number 1 on this list at the start of last season? If no, then I respect your restraint from ranking RNH high; but if yes, then you are applying double standards.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Last year would been a head-to-head battle between Gagner and Hall (Eberle would have been #3 but no one else even deserved to be in that discussion imo).
Working for Hall – stellar potential.
Working against Hall – no high-level play
Working for Gagner – high level play
Working against Gagner – ceiling looked very limited
Hard call. Remember, at the start of the year Gagner had very little evidence to support a contention that he was steadily improving and what little improvement he WAS making wasn’t enough to indicate to me that he would ever be anything more than a 2nd line anchor.
Anchor.
So I would have gone with Hall.
My opinion of Gagner was not very high at the end of 2009/10 and, were I GM, I would have been quite ready to move him in a package deal for a high-pick (were I rebuilding) or a guy like Weiss (were I interested in getting competitive).
Unlike many I do not view the gain of the #1 pick as the silver lining to the dismal 2010/11 season. To me the silver lining is that Hall proved he could PLAY, Eberle and Paarjarvi proved that they could support high expectations, Petry proved that the faith of a few was not unjustified (Derek and I break into song right about here), Gagner proved that he might not be an anchor after all and that maybe, maybe he could be slotted into the 2nd line center spot with confidence rather than resignation and Smid proved that with the right puckmover/passer he can be effective.
It’s nice to find out that more than half the future of the team has a future in the game.
Everything else is just icing.
30th place icing to be sure. But for this management group, morbidly obese from gorging on losses like they were cupcakes, I am sure it’s all sweet, sweet love.
Last Winter: Hall, Gagner, Eberle, Paarjarvi, Smid, Omark, Petry, Lander, Marincin, Dubnyk is where I probably would have had my top-10.
by Jaysen Knight on Aug 3, 2011 9:53 AM MDT up reply actions
But Scott showed that the only improvement in Gagber’s play from last leason to this one was on ice sh%. His underlying numbers were almost similar or slightly worse. So just becasue he scored points at a higher rate doesnt necessarily shoe great improvement.
Working for Hall – stellar potential.
Working against Hall – no high-level play
Working for Gagner – high level play
Working against Gagner – ceiling looked very limited
What applied to Hall, applies ot RNH as well. While he may not be as good as Hall, he is just a notch or two below.
I donot agree that Gagner has had a high level of play. If he were at a point in his career where he was producing upwards of 60 points, then you could make a point for hihg level play. But as of right now he is only mediocre. And now has a small injury history.
While #1 overall is not a silver lining to a dismal season, you can/should expect him to outproduce players like Gagner/Omark
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
No where do I say that Gagner is playing at a high level but I do see him going from being a detriment on the ice (your 2nd line guys shouldn’t need to be sheltered and if you do its because they bring a superlative level of performance – scoring – to a line) to a guy who won’t be (a 2nd line guy who doesn’t need to be sheltered). Right now that makes him a better prospect imo.
Also, as much as I was a Seguin guy last year I have nothing against Hall and consider him as being a better prospect out of junior than RNH.
IF he can handle NHL ice RNH will be better than Gagner. Gagner’s only hope in that case would be to develop superior defensive skills.
That said, I think there is a gambler’s chance Omark might have a better career than anyone not named Hall.
by Jaysen Knight on Aug 4, 2011 9:29 PM MDT up reply actions
heh – I see where I say ‘high level play’ now. sorry about that.
Note – In that case I am not talking about his personal level of play – I am talking about the level at which he is playing for the team.
by Jaysen Knight on Aug 4, 2011 9:31 PM MDT up reply actions
JFJ had a LOT working for him as a prospect, his ceiling was that of a difference maker playing on the top-2 lines, but once he hit the NHL you could barely make the case that he deserved a spot on the 4th line. That is a hell of a slide.
I think JFJ is a bad comparable. I think Schremp would have fit the analogy better. But the simple fact that RNH was thought about being better than his peers/ no skating or attitude issues and much better conpete level and work ethic sets him apart from Schremp. JFJ was a different kind of player whose developmnent got derailed by injuries and then he just wasnt anything.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Since Doug Weight left town, their have been a 122 NHL 82-point seasons. Not one of these has been by an Oiler.
I’m dreaming of 3 PPG forwards on our top line chewing up the NW with speed and ability.
In my dream N-H is the 2-way C with vision and hands while Eberle and especially the #1 are 40-50 goal scorers.
he hasn’t done anything yet
Exactly. As of now he’s something of an unknown, lots of potential but nothing proven. If he makes the team this season and looks good I’m sure he’ll move up your (and Derek’s) ranking in a hurry. Until then though I like proven commodities ahead of him.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I agree, RNH hasn’t done anything yet. But really, what has Petry done in the NHL? Not sure how anybody could rank Petry ahead of RNH at this point.
I wouldn’t rank Petery ahead of RNH (one spot behind actually) but I can see why some would. He showed that he can handle the minutes on the middle pair this season. For a guy fresh into the NHL on this teams defense that’s a pretty damn good sign, certainly makes me think he could be a top pair guy at some point.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Exactly. That’s why I was baffled at him being #2. He hasn’t done anything yet, while we have at least 50 games of NHL data on everyone else. If he was projected to be a difference-maker like many past #1s, okay, but he’s #1 in a weak year, and there are definite concerns. I think #6 is around where I’d have him myself.
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If he was projected to be a difference-maker like many past #1s, okay, but he’s #1 in a weak year, and there are definite concerns
I have yet to see where he is not projected to be a difference maker. He was #1 in a weak year, but RNH was said to be on par with Seguin who was in the conversation for 1st overall last season( a relatively strong year). I cant remember if it was pipeline show or Tsn, but some even said that they would pick RNH over Seguin. So that os high praise and not someone not preojected to be a difference maker
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Rank 'em!
You know you’re a pain in the ass right
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
What do you think of the Kessel trade?
Leafs got a proven 30+ young goal scorer for 2 unknown quantities. You think it was a good deal for the leafs? Or by givin up a potential lottery pick they screwed up? So if a lottery pick is better than a young 30 goal scorer, then a should a consensus(among scouts) number 1 overall pick be placed behind players like Eberle/Omark?
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I think it’s a bad trade. I thought it was a bad trade when it was made and it’s a bad trade now. But it’s not bad just because they gave up lottery picks , it’s a bad trade because Burke didn’t realize that the Leafs weren’t just Kessel away from being a good team, that they had plenty of other holes to fill. That also doesn’t mean that if Seguin and Hamilton don’t pan out that it suddenly becomes a good trade.
In the same way just because RNH was a #1 it doesn’t automatically make him better than everyone not named Hall. Draft position counts for something but to my way of thinking it’s only a small part of the equation. When coming up with my 25 I have to acknowledge that I have questions about his game and have pretty much from the time we all started talking about him. Until he proves me wrong I can’t imagine why I would place him above players who I have a better idea of the player they’ll become.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
No talk about the trade in isolation. 2 first round picks one possibly a lottery pick for a 21 yr old 30+ goal scorer.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I think it’s a bad trade. I thought it was a bad trade when it was made and it’s a bad trade now. But it’s not bad just because they gave up lottery picks , it’s a bad trade because Burke didn’t realize that the Leafs weren’t just Kessel away from being a good team, that they had plenty of other holes to fill. That also doesn’t mean that if Seguin and Hamilton don’t pan out that it suddenly becomes a good trade.
Does this not clearly explain my view of the trade?
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
Well, at least you all have Taylor Hall ranked #1.
I’m actually surprised it was either vote him 2nd or out of the top 5 entirely.
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Looking at the readers’ top 25 under 25 lists, the only constant on every single one is that Hall is #1 with a bullet.
I kind of hope his writeup tomorrow is just a highlight reel video and the text “Well, duh.”
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It will be a bit more than that ;)
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The other constant was that RNH was top 5 in every single one. But three C&B writers have ranked him outside the top five (one unofficially).
Very strange, that.
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by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 3, 2011 11:59 PM MDT up reply actions
I looked at that as well. I think it comes down to criteria. I weighted “upside” very highly in my ranking and other than Hall and maybe Eberle I don’t see another prospect with greater upside. I see someone with the potential to be Pavel Datsyuk Part II which is pretty significant and hence my ranking of him second. I also placed much less weight on NHL games played (the safe bet factor) and focused more on success versus peers at the same age. RNH scores well on that criteria, as does Hamilton.
Well, I think it would be best to wait and see who number one is before jumping in and declaring it to be Hall.
You’re right. Could still be Tyler Bunz.
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I have to say I’m a little bit disappointed Derek didn’t write this article. I would have really enjoyed reading what he would have to say.
no I think we have beaten that horse to death. I was hoping it to be one of the other writers to get a different point of view
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Well as Derek demonstrated below, its not really to run the kid down (obviously he had to think RNH is a good player – but that there were better options available) I was talking more about providing juxtaposition between a post of this nature and his previously recorded thoughts.
I was mostly just trying to be funny, and not to take away from Jaysen, but admittedly Dereks take would have been interesting.
I think he’s going to be a very, very good player and a fixture on the half-wall on the power play for at least 6 years.
I hope he’s a superstar and along with the other top players on the list can carry enough slack to make up for the shortcomings management is sure to leave on the rest of the roster.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I always find it interesting that so many people can comment on a player they have never (barely) seen play. Not speaking to the writers/comments here per se, but in general.
Everyone seems to think RNH should play in Edmonton and at min. be given 9 games. But why? Because he was a No.1 pick and they all play in the NHL? Because he looked good at Rookie camp?
How can most ppl make their top 25 with barely seeing these guys play exactly?
If I could do it all over again, I’d have gone Hall #1, Eberle #2, Nuge #3.
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So if you and I don’t screw up, Eberle is the clear #2.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If a couple of slight ranking changes are all it takes to re-order, then I don’t think Eberle is a “clear” #2.
Besides, we’ll have more clarity on where Nugent-Hopkins sits after we get further into the upcoming campaign. They are going to play him, I’m sure, whether or not it’s advisable.
by David Supina on Aug 4, 2011 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions
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