Scoring Chance Conversion Rates

CALGARY, CANADA - APRIL 6: Jarome Iginla #12 of the Calgary Flames score his 40th goal of the season against Nikolai Khabibulin #35 of the Edmonton Oilers as Oilers Kurtis Foster #26 looks on in second period NHL action on April 6, 2011 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Mike Ridewood/Getty Images)

I've sliced Dennis King's scoring chance data a number of different ways: at even strength, on the power play, on the penalty kill, individually, WOWY, by line, and over time throughout the season, but I've done little to compare the Oilers' numbers to the numbers of other NHL teams.  Thanks to the efforts of a number of excellent writers, we have the ability to make such comparisons.  We'll break into the comparisons at team level conversion rates at even strength to begin.

Listed below is the conversion rates by team and for opponents for the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons.  Conversion rate is defined as the percent of time a team scores on an even strength scoring chanceConversion rate Against is defined as the percent of time the opposing team scores on an even strength scoring chance.


2009 2010
Florida Against
15.7%
Florida
15.3%
Edmonton Against 17.0% 14.9%
Calgary
14.0%
Washington
13.8%
New York 
12.7%
Edmonton 15.3% 12.6%
Montreal 15.0% 12.0%

 

  • It's not surprising that Florida had the highest conversion rate and rate against because I tracked chances for the Panthers.  I'm the stingiest tracker among the entire group.
  • Florida's issues were on special teams last season, not at even strength.  They outchanced their opponents at evens, at least until Dale Tallon decided to gut the franchise.
  • It might seem obvious, but the rates reinforce it.  Not only has Edmonton given up more scoring chances than they've generated over the last two seasons, they've also allowed opponents to convert on their scoring chances at a higher rate.  Cross-reference that with Nikolai Khabibulin in goal and it all checks out. 
  • Edmonton's conversion rate fell sharply in 2010-11, my initial guess is the injuries to all of the skill players did them in.
  • Montreal's conversion rates were also off by a similar percent.
  • After finishing 26th in even strength scoring in 2009-2010, Calgary jumped to 8th in 2010-11.  Unfortunately, we don't have their finishing rates or scoring chance rates from 2009-10 to tell where the problem was, but it's worth noting that they finished at a higher rate than the Capitals.

Special thanks to Dennis King at MC79hockey.com, Kent Wilson at Flames Nation, George Ays at Blueshirt Banter, Neil Greenberg at Russian Machine Never Breaks, Olivier at En attendant les Nordiques, and Under the Helmet of Slava Duris.

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