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Individual Point Percentage by Team - Eastern Conference

If you're not first, you're last.

Yesterday, I looked at the individual point percentage -  a calculation of the number of times an individual player gets a point (either a goal or an assist) relative to the number of total goals scored while he's on the ice - for all of the forwards who were on the ice for at least ten goals-for during five-on-five action for each team in the Western Conference. After the jump, I'll be doing the same thing for each club in the Eastern Conference, and comment briefly on each one. 

Star-divide

In case you need a refresher, the results here will hopefully give us a better idea of which guys are handling the puck a lot in the offensive zone and helping to create goals. When we look at the results over a long period of time, we can see that the guys who are doing this usually rise to the top. But that's not to say it gives a perfect reflection of reality with just one year of data. The league average for forwards is somewhere between 69.5% and 70.0%, and most players will regress toward that number over time even though, in an individual season, you might see a player do much better or much worse (a lot like shooting percentage). The raw data here all comes from Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca. Now on to the teams (in alphabetical order by city):

Atlanta_medium

Evander Kane shows well here, which is encouraging, but play-maker Bryan Little doesn't look good at all, and with 104 five-on-five points off of 170 five-on-five goals for his career, it's not a new struggle. That works out to 61.2%, which is significantly below average, and not at all what you're generally looking for from a scoring center who handles the puck with regularity.

Boston_medium

Marc Savard had a rough start to the year by this measure, but with just eleven events, you can't really come to any conclusions. David Krejci looks great, and in fact, he did very well on the overall list when I was looking over the data for the last four years. The Bruins may not count on him to take on the other team's best, but they do count on him for offense, and he's been excellent.

Buffalo_medium

This is a pretty conventional-looking team with all of the skill players near the top, and all of the grinders near the bottom. Except for new Maple Leaf Tim Connolly. But Connolly has actually been close to average over the last four years (105 points on 155 goals for or 67.7%), so it'll be interesting to see whether or not this number changes significantly with a change in team.

Carolina_medium

No doubt about who stands out here, and Eric Staal has just never been particularly good by this measure (his four-year average is 68.5%). And yet I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a fan of the Hurricanes who'd tell you that Staal isn't one of the guys driving the offense in Carolina. He has, after all, led the Hurricanes in even strength scoring each year from 2005-06 to 2009-10, and while he didn't do that this year, it's still a very odd result. Any Hurricanes' fans care to chime in?

Florida_medium

Is it any wonder this team was so bad? Just look at those names! And the best players are the guys getting rocked! Both David Booth and Stephen Weiss look poor here, and for Weiss, it's a pretty consistent thing with a 59.3% IPP over the last four seasons on 204 goals for. Booth, on the other hand, is still a little bit above average over the last four years (70.9%) even with this tough-luck year thrown in.

Montreal_medium

Tomas Plekanec had an excellent IPP for les Habitants in 2009-10, which helped him to a career-high 70-point season and a fat new contract. Although he didn't quite meet that total in 2010-11, he still performed very well, so the Montreal faithful haven't turned on him yet. But Scott Gomez? There's a guy the fans don't seem to like. But between this terrible percentage and a really terrible 3.5% personal shooting percentage, I've got to think he might be an interesting guy for a budget team to buy if the Canadiens are looking to sell him.

New_jersey_medium

Zach Parise isn't on the chart, but over the last four seasons, his 78.1% (150 points on 192 goals-for) puts him among the league leaders. He's not New Jersey's only offensive weapon, but he's one of the guys in the league who seems to be able to create goals, so it's no wonder the Devils struggled significantly without him.

Long_island_medium

Oh, Michael Grabner. Here we have a guy who was never much of a scorer in the American Hockey League (his best year saw him score 48 points in 66 games) get claimed off the waiver wire and put up big numbers in the NHL with a very high individual point percentage, and a shooting percentage in all situations (14.9%) that was higher than what he managed in his AHL career (12.3% on 555 shots in the regular season). It's, of course, quite possible that Grabner is a late-bloomer, but like Robert Nilsson before him, he's probably very wise to have cashed in after his big year.

New_york_medium

I really, really like Wojtek Wolski. Pretty much every group of fans that has had him play for their team seems to hate the guy, but I think he's a tonne of fun to watch, and I am completely unsurprised to see him do well here and do well consistently. Detractors will tell you that he takes too long to make decisions, or that he's lazy, or that he turns the puck over too much, and they may even be right about all of those things. But when the guy is on, he's among the very best in the league.

Ottawa_medium

If I had to guess the three guys that would be above average from last year's Senators, I would have had no problem with Spezza, but Bobby Butler and Colin Greening probably wouldn't have made the list. Looking at this list, it's hard to believe that this franchise was in the Stanley Cup Finals just five years ago, harder to believe that they fired the guy who brought them there to hire the guy who's brought them here, and hardest to believe that this selfsame man was given a contract extension. Goodness.

Philadelphia_medium

I really like Claude Giroux, and he's building a nice-looking sheet for himself. His goal and point totals have increased each year along with his ice time, and his IPP is a very strong 77.4% through his first three seasons, which is about where you'd expect it to settle for a guy who's able to drive offense. The Flyers have did some weird things in the last twelve months, but signing Claude Giroux to a contract extension isn't one of them. He's going to be very, very good.

Pittsburgh_medium

Sidney Crosby is the best player in the game today, and like so many other statistics, he leads the league here too if we look at the four-year sample. It looks like he's going to make sure he's 100% ready before he comes back this year, which means fans in Edmonton won't get to see him play live for half a decade, but it's definitely the right call. Best wishes for a full recovery.

Tampa_medium

Yeah, yeah, St. Louis and Stamkos are great, but what's up with Vinny Lecavalier? As it turns out, probably just a hard-luck year. In his previous three seasons, he'd put up 77.3%, 75.5%, and 89.7%, so he's usually among the league leaders. But in 2010-11, he had just three second assists five-on-five, which is hilariously low for a player like him. Lecavalier is almost certainly overpaid, but I wouldn't be using this number to suggest that he's not a great player in the offensive zone. 

Toronto_medium

Guys like Fredrik Sjostrom really can't afford down years with the percentages because it often puts them right out of the league. The hockey gods are a cruel bunch, Fredrik. On the bright side, I hear that Europe is much nicer than Toronto.

Washington_medium

Alex Ovechkin is consistently near the top of this list, and Nicklas Backstrom is consistently about average. Now, I'm not saying that Backstrom is a bad player because he's clearly pretty good, but $6.7M for 10 years is a whole lot of money to stick with what you know. It may end up working out fabulously, but I get the feeling that the Capitals may have given Backstrom a bit more credit for his numbers than he deserves.

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Cole being that high in the rankings surprises me a little because the guy was not that good of a player territorially last year and pretty much every other stat I’ve looked at indicates that Staal carried every line he was on. However, Cole was a great shooter and the perfect player to take advantage of the many set-ups that Staal provides so that could be why he has such a high percentage. He’s also consistently shot the puck at a pretty high rate (12.6 career shooting%).

Mind if I do this project for defensemen? I might need something to keep me busy when the power inevitably goes out tomorrow, haha.

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by MyFriendCorey on Aug 26, 2011 6:09 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks for your thoughts on Cole and Staal. Good to know that my surprise is warranted! My apologies for the late reply, but I’ve already got the data for defenders ready to go, and that will start going up tomorrow. There’s just too much stuff to jam into one post.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 27, 2011 10:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

He wasn’t a great terriotrial player but he was also consistantly out against the toughs on a not particularly great team so he can probably be given some slack there.

I guy I think is pretty interesting is Beniot Pouliot, the impression I’ve gotten is that he’s pretty good at generating offense for himself but not at getting the overall team to play better with him on the ice.

by Stephan Cooper on Aug 31, 2011 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

I too think Wolski is valuable despite his, umm, issues. He scores (p/60) at an elite level at even strength, but he keeps himself off the ice and off the PP with his effort.

Here’s hoping that another contract year is enough for another 60 point season.

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by George E. Ays on Aug 26, 2011 7:33 PM MDT via iPhone app reply actions  

Doesn’t this somewhat miss the point? It might be that a player is valuable in producing a goal by for example screening a goalie. This won’t get him a goal or an assist but it still makes him instrumental in the way the goal was scored. If a player does that a few times he gets a low ranking here, but it doesn’t show any problem in his play.

by PuckStopsHere on Aug 26, 2011 11:30 PM MDT reply actions  

It’s just a slightly different way of looking at things, so I guess it depends what you figure the point is. I think this statistic does a about who’s handling the puck a lot on scoring plays, and by extension, handling the puck a lot in the offensive zone more generally. I think knowing that has value. But yeah, like any other statistic, it has plenty of limitations.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 26, 2011 11:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

I have to think that some of what you applied to Holmstrom applies to Backstrom – Alex Ovechkin is (last season aside) an absurdly explosive player. How much that applies over a four year sample, I don’t know. I think it’s possible that Backstrom saw an increase in his boxcar stats while seeing a decrease in his IPP.

None of this is to dispute that AO is carrying the water offensively – there aren’t many players who do as much in the offensive end as AO does.

by Knee high to a duck on Aug 27, 2011 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions  

it’s hard to believe that this franchise was in the Stanley Cup Finals just five years ago, harder to believe that they fired the guy who brought them there to hire the guy who’s brought them here, and hardest to believe that this selfsame man was given a contract extension

True dat. I have always had trouble figuring how Bryan Murray gets and keeps jobs in this league.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 27, 2011 9:19 PM MDT reply actions  

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32 - 40 - 10

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Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

  1. Detroit Red Wings (27-11, .711)
  2. St. Louis Blues (24-10, .706)
  3. Vancouver Canucks (22-10, .688)
  4. Los Angeles Kings (18-11, .621)
  5. San Jose Sharks (18-13, .581)
  6. Phoenix Coyotes (20-15, .571)
  7. Nashville Predators (18-14, .563)
  8. Chicago Blackhawks (21-19, .525)
  9. Colorado Avalanche (16-19, .457)
  10. Dallas Stars (18-22, .450)
  11. Anaheim Ducks (14-19, .424)
  12. Edmonton Oilers (18-25, .419)
  13. Calgary Flames (13-21, .382)
  14. Columbus Blue Jackets (14-31, .311)
  15. Minnesota Wild (8-22,.267)

Eastern Conference

  1. Pittsburgh Penguins (31-13, .711)
  2. Boston Bruins (27-11, .711)
  3. New York Rangers (25-16, .610)
  4. Philadelphia Flyers (21-17, .553)
  5. New Jersey Devils (18-16, .529)
  6. Ottawa Senators (19-17, .528)
  7. Washington Capitals (20-19, .513)
  8. Montreal Canadiens (16-19, .457)
  9. Winnipeg Jets (15-19, .441)
  10. Buffalo Sabres (14-18, .438)
  11. Carolina Hurricanes (13-17, .433)
  12. Florida Panthers (14-19, .424)
  13. Toronto Maple Leafs (17-24, .415)
  14. New York Islanders (8-23, .258)
  15. Tampa Bay Lightning (10-30, .250)

Division Standings

  1. Central (79-58, .577)
  2. Atlantic (68-50, .576)
  3. Pacific (62-54, .534)
  4. Northeast (69-65, .515)
  5. Northwest (49-69, .415)
  6. Southeast (51-81, .386)


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