Futures Odds To Win The Stanley Cup
by Derek Zona on Aug 23, 2011 6:30 AM MDT
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It might seem a little optimistic for an Oilers' writer to check in on futures odds to win the Stanley Cup, but as I glanced through them, a couple of things struck me as both interesting and curious. There are a couple of caveats to these odds though. First, though betting odds are often a true indication of the event odds, futures odds are a bit different. First, there is an enormous amount of juice in futures odds. Ask a book to give you a "field" bet against the favorite on a futures list and see if you get reverse odds. Secondly, futures odds rarely reflect the true money line. So with those out of the way, let's check in on the 2011-12 futures odds to win The Stanley Cup.
*All lines taken from Vegas Insider.
| Team | Odds |
| Vancouver | 6/1 |
| Pittsburgh | 7/1 |
| Philadelphia | 9/1 |
| Washington | 10/1 |
| Boston | 10/1 |
| Chicago | 12/1 |
| Detroit | 12/1 |
| Los Angeles | 12/1 |
| San Jose | 12/1 |
| Tampa Bay | 12/1 |
| Montreal | 20/1 |
| Nashville | 25/1 |
| Anaheim | 25/1 |
| Buffalo | 30/1 |
| New Jersey | 30/1 |
| Phoenix | 30/1 |
| Calgary | 35/1 |
| Carolina | 35/1 |
| Dallas | 40/1 |
| N.Y. Rangers |
40/1 |
| St. Louis | 40/1 |
| Toronto | 50/1 |
| Winnipeg | 50/1 |
| Minnesota | 60/1 |
| Edmonton | 65/1 |
| Colorado | 65/1 |
| Ottawa | 65/1 |
| Columbus | 75/1 |
| N.Y. Islanders |
80/1 |
| Florida | 125/1 |
Some things are obvious and following conventional wisdom: the Canucks and Penguins are the favorites and the Oilers are la...oh. The Oilers aren't last! In fact, it's the Panthers who bring up the rear. Clearly the oddsmakers are not impressed by Dale Tallon's off-season spending orgy. So the Oilers are at least a clear 2...huh. Looks like the Islanders are a clear 29th, curious for me, given their improvements and the Senators...bizarre plans. The Oilers aren't even 28th, that's the Blue Jackets -- bettors are not interested in Jeff Carter or James Wisniewski. No sir, the Oilers are in a three-way logjam in 25-26-27 with the Avalanche and the Senators.
Breaking out futures odds by conference is interesting as well; do the top eight teams make the playoffs?
| West | Odds |
| Vancouver | 6/1 |
| Chicago | 12/1 |
| Detroit | 12/1 |
| Los Angeles | 12/1 |
| San Jose | 12/1 |
| Nashville | 25/1 |
| Anaheim | 25/1 |
| Phoenix | 30/1 |
| Calgary | 35/1 |
| Dallas | 40/1 |
| St. Louis | 40/1 |
| Minnesota | 60/1 |
| Edmonton | 65/1 |
| Colorado | 65/1 |
| Columbus | 75/1 |
Vancouver vs. Phoenix, Chicago vs. Anaheim, Los Angeles vs. Nashville and Detroit vs. San Jose. The Flames miss the playoffs in what should be a last hurrah and the Oilers tie for 13th in the conference. Sound good to everyone?
| East | Odds |
| Pittsburgh | 7/1 |
| Philadelphia | 9/1 |
| Washington | 10/1 |
| Boston | 10/1 |
| Tampa Bay | 12/1 |
| Montreal | 20/1 |
| Buffalo | 30/1 |
| New Jersey | 30/1 |
| Carolina | 35/1 |
| N.Y. Rangers | 40/1 |
| Toronto | 50/1 |
| Winnipeg | 50/1 |
| Ottawa | 65/1 |
| N.Y. Islanders | 80/1 |
| Florida | 125/1 |
Pittsburgh vs. New Jersey, Washington vs. Buffalo, Boston vs. Montreal, Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay and the Rangers and Brad Richards miss the playoffs altogether. The one outlier here is the Islanders. If Evgeni Nabokov is healthy, the Islanders should be better than 14th in the conference.
So where are the futures odds missing the boat?
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Geez, Boston-Montreal again, eh? I guess I’ll just have to suffer through seven more games of that. ;)
I can’t imagine Phoenix as a playoff team, personally. Also seems to me like the Rangers really should be in.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
The middle of the east is clogged up and strange. I have to think Carolina is overrated here, especially given their odds relative to Washington and Tampa both.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think Columbus is a playoff contender this year… they should be battling for 8th. Rangers are ranked pretty low and I hate that the Leafs are ranked higher than us. Mind you I keep thinking we are ‘1 trade away’ from being playoff contenders so I’m clearly out to lunch. Is it wrong that I think if Khabibulin went to prison for longer we’d have a better chance?
Not in the slightest. I believe I was making shiv jokes on Twitter during his brief sentence.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
Maybe if that trade was Khabibulin for Luongo
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m tempted by Chicago at 12/1. Philadelphia at 9/1 I would run away screaming from.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.
I already took SJS at 12-1, I love that number personally.
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I think futures bets in general are not great investments, but SJS and Chicago seem like decent bets, while I would have thought NJD was a great longshot bet before the zajac injury. A flier on the Rangers actually doesn’t seem like the worst idea
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 23, 2011 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
I’ve got NJ at 50-1. Apparently Vegas hasn’t heard about Mr. Corsi.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
I like Jersey at 30-1. That’s the best value on the list.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
think so too, though Zajac injury hurts
by Ahmad Bradshaw on Aug 23, 2011 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
i don’t think it affects things very much.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
I don’t believe it does either – he’ll be back after 12-15 games, right?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I too like the SJ at 12-1. The Dallas 40-1 also intrigues me for some stupid reason.
Tending The Farm in OKC!
by Neal Livingston on Aug 23, 2011 10:59 AM MDT reply actions
I dont think the Vegas odds miss the boat at all. I think you are misunderstanding the intent of the Vegas oddsmakers. They are not actually trying to handicap the actual probability of a team winning the Stanley Cup. They are trying to handicap the amount of money that will come in on the field versus that of one team. They are in the business of trying to make money so they are trying to weight things so that money is evenly distributed so that no matter who wins, they make money.
For example, the Oilers are listed at 65-1. The Vegas oddsmakers are NOT saying the oilers are 65-1 to win the cup. They are saying that for every dollar bet on the oilers, at least 65 dollars is being bet on the field. So that if the oilers were to win, they are making money
The reason the Oilers (and other popular teams that have rabid fan bases) are perhaps rated more highly on this list then other forecasters is the fact that more money tends to come in on them then unpopular teams. Square bettors (uninformed bettors…which 99% of the betting public fall into) just like to bet money on their home teams and have a homer bias so that tends to drive the price down. Whereas unpopular teams like Florida, NYI and Columbus have very little casual money coming in on them driving the price down so their numbers might be higher then expected.
I think you misunderstand how futures odds work. Your explanation is more true for money odds.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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