Sam Gagner IS A ______ Line Centre
by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 6:30 AM MDT
in Analysis
Email
Print
I had and article detailing Sam Gagner's comparables ready to go for this morning, until I was inspired by this comment from Copper & Blue regular melancholyculkin:
If you use the criteria of top 30=1st line, top 60=2nd line then Gagner is already a second-line center. He was the 49th highest scoring center last season. If he had played a full year and scored 50 points last year he would be 36th.
I decided to look at Gagner's 2010-11 rank among centres in a number of different offensive categories. Even though I ranked him second on my Top 25 Under 25 ballot, I was surprised by what I found.
Using the always-dashing Gabriel Desjardins' behindthenet.ca data, I looked up Gagner's rank among centres in the following categories: points, even strength points per 60 minutes, even strength goals per 60 minutes, even strength assists per 60 minutes and even strength goals for on per 60 minutes.
| Centre Rank | |
| Points | 49 |
| ESP/60 | 38 |
| ESG/60 | 69 |
| ESA/60 | 23 |
| ES GFON/60 | 40 |
As you can see, not only does Gagner rate solidly as a second-line centre in points, but even strength points, and even strength goals for on as well. He lags in even strength goals, ranking among the third-line centres and shines in even strength assists, ranking among the first-line centres at 23rd overall.
After four years, Gagner is proving to be exactly what he was drafted to be -- a play-making centre. He's going to be 22 years old and though his development hasn't been ideal, he's already a second-line centre. Give Gagner some linemates and he's a first-line centre. Force him to carry a line on his own, and he's not capable. Yet. Given age and progression, it's only a matter of time.
29 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
As you guys have continually pointed out, and as I have long believed, give Sam two legit NHL players (say Smyth and Hemsky) and the guy will put up points. No he’s not Crosby, who could score 100 points playing with my grandparents, but not many people are. Put him in a position to succeed and he will. Elite? Probably not. Very good? Very likely. And if he “only” ends up a second line centre… well no team needs one of those, right? Right?
If he truly is a playmaking centre, then pairing him with Hemsky would not be a good fit. He should play with trigger men
Yeah I realised that after I said it, but then I couldn’t think of another bonafide right wing NHLer on the Oilers…
That is the problem. Even where the Oilers have good players, they are not complementary. Trade Hemsky for Nathan Horton and your line works.
I beleive the Oilers are going to have to make some tough decisions if they want to win. That means at least one of Omark, Hemsky, and Eberle has to go if you want to keep smallish playmaking centres like Gagner and RNH down the middle. Then you generally need big (in terms of size) snipers and power forwards on the wings. The left side is looking okay with players like Hall, MPS, Smyth, Hartikainen and Hamilton but the right side with Hemsky, Omark, Eberle, Brule, Rajala doesn’t mesh with the current “plan” at centre.
I don’t care if they trade the centres or the right wingers to get better balance, so long as they get the balance right.
Still not sure where he is going to play – centre or wing. If wing and he proves he can score at the NHl level, then he could fit the bill, but then you gotta push out two of hemsky, Omark and Eberle as none of them seem like 3rd line guys to me.
BTW, replace Hemsky with Chris Stewart, and how does the line look? And he was in play last year, so its not like you can’t make trades for these guys.
I don't buy it
If you go back and look at the WOWY analysis for each player it shoots the “89 83 shouldn’t be together” theory to bits. Good players should play together and I like 83 with a rh centre.
by rent a goalie on Aug 2, 2011 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions
Haha yeah I know I was only kidding… well kind of. I do think it would be stupid to trade Hemsky IF it were for magic beans, but if we got a proven player back then I might consider it. For sentimental reasons, Hemsky has always been my favourite Oiler, but I also subscribe to Pat from BDHS’s notion that you should keep good players, get more good players. Hemsky is a VERY good player, and I’d be very reluctant to let him go. In fact I breathed a sigh of relief at both the trade deadline and the draft when he wasn’t traded. But I do agree that things are a bit crowded on the wings and one of those 3 can’t be here long term.
Looking at just his offense is a generous way of doing things for Gagner since, so far in his career, he’s given everything back. Some of that is no doubt playing for a poor team, but I think he needs to own some of that too.
And if we’re looking just at offense, another category that has him among 2010-11’s leaders is on-ice shooting percentage (he was 32nd), which leaves me even less sure that what we’re looking at here is a player that can be counted on as a strong second-line centerman right now (I think he’ll get there if he can recover from this injury). If you run these numbers for 2009-10 – a season that saw him play at what I thought was (at the very least) quite close to the same level – he falls off substantially in all of the even strength categories (81st; 79th; 77th; and 63rd) because the percentages went the other way. I think looking at those two seasons together probably gives us a better idea of where he is as a player offensively: when he gets the bounces, he has the production you’d expect from a second line player, and when he doesn’t get the bounces, he has the production you’d expect from a third line player.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
32nd isn’t the true number. There are at least three guys in your list who don’t play centre and at least 5 who do who are listed incorrectly as a wing.
Also, it’s worth pointing out that he had the lowest On ice sv pct of any centre in the league last year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I recognize that it’s not the “real” number, but there are bound to be guys marked as wings who played mostly center too, so going with the “official” position seemed like a good enough ballpark figure. Moving him higher on that particular list doesn’t help him anyway.
The save percentage was poor, but isn’t relevant to his scoring rates, so I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make there. If anything, the Oilers’ goaltending problems (and other problems) serve to overstate his offense since the result is Gagner playing many more shifts with his team trailing than most of the people we’re comparing him to.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 2, 2011 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions
I don’t mean to speak for Derek, but I believe his point was in regard to Gagner having “given everything back” that he had achieved offensively. This may be true, but that’s where an incredibly low on-ice save percentage behind him may be important. If you are suggesting that his high shooting percentage moderates the claims made about him last season, then surely the poor on-ice save percentage behind him moderates your claim that he had “given everything back”?
In any case, the entirety of this debate points to one fact: that this is really a defining season for the Gagn-man. Presuming he’s given a better team situation, he needs to demonstrate a clear line of progress in terms of both points but also defensive reliability. He also needs to show that he is evolving into a player that can drive a line forward, rather than playing to the relative strength or weakness of his linemates. I think he’ll come through in this regard…
My own comments about giving everything back have to do with his shot and chance rates, which haven’t been in the black over a full season. Some of that is the quality of the team for sure, but I was pretty hopeful that Gagner would take a bigger step forward in 2010-11 in that regard, and it didn’t happen. But as you’ve said, he gets another shot to take that step in 2011-12.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 2, 2011 11:12 AM MDT up reply actions
Also, it’s worth pointing out that he had the lowest On ice sv pct of any centre in the league last year
Out of every player who played at least 40 NHL games last year, Gagner ranked 566 out of 566 for 5v5 SV% with .876
I think there will be a few articles in the MSM about how Gagner “found his defensive game” in 2011/2012 even if he just gets to the mean of .918
Looking at just his offense is a generous way of doing things for Gagner
When the average fan talks about a “true 1st line” center, the defensive aspect is given little to no thought. For instance, Brad Richards is widely (and probably correctly) considered a 1st line center, even though he often gives back more than he gets at ES.
I wouldn’t agree with the isolation of just ES points for this argument though. If you’re looking at solely offensive production, the PP matters.
Blueshirt Banter - Where Rangers' Fans Matter
Tracking the Rangers - Numbers don't lie. They just don't agree with you.
Twitter: RangerSmurf
by George E. Ays on Aug 2, 2011 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions
Strictly looking at points is obviously a one-dimensional method of player evaluation. Offensively speaking, Gagner is as good as Jordan Staal, but Staal plays on the PK, wins more faceoffs, starts in his own zone against the opposition’s top lines….
Gagner was the 6th pick. Historically speaking you don’t actually get a lot of elite players with the 6th pick. Between 1995-2005 these guys were chosen:
Steve Kelly
Boyd Devereaux
Daniel Tkaczuk
Rico Fata
Brian Finley
Scott Hartnell
Mikko Koivu
Scotti Upshall
Milan Michalek
Al Montoya
Gilbert Brule
There’s some useful guys on that list, but the only player that I would realistically take over Gagner would be Koivu. Oiler fans seem to have this strange notion that if Gagner doesn’t score 80 points while playing with rookies then he’s a bust.
The truth is that Sam is the second best player from his draft class right now and he’s more than covering his draft bet.
by melancholyculkin on Aug 2, 2011 12:39 PM MDT up reply actions
Also, I for one would like to read the Gagner comparables article Derek.
by melancholyculkin on Aug 2, 2011 12:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Sam Gagner IS A ______ first or second line centre on a team that struggles in the playoffs.
Sam is a talented hockey player. His weaknesses define what makes a centre easier to contain – slowish, smaller, pass first because of a weak shot.
I always am thinking of playoff potential for a player. Playmakers that aren’t particularly dangerous themselves are easier to play – stay on them and close off lanes, which gets easier as the whistles are pocketed more as the playoffs go on.
If RNH pans out to be the more dangerous offensively centre, the second C has to be able to draw some of the better coverage to open things up for RNH. Like Kessler does for the Sedins, who play easier minutes because of him. Imagine how they would do if they always played the toughs and started in the D zone more.
I see the stats but think Gagner’s abilities suit regular season play more than playoffs. He also currently benefits I think from lower intensity from opponents. How up do teams get to play the Oilers? That is going to start changing soon enough.
I always am thinking of playoff potential for a player.
Do you have a method, or is this just what you think?
Playmakers that aren’t particularly dangerous themselves are easier to play – stay on them and close off lanes, which gets easier as the whistles are pocketed more as the playoffs go on.
This is an odd statement. Throughout the prime of his career, Martin Straka scored more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Adam Oates produced at essentially the same level. Jim Fox, a Gagner comp, produced at the same level. They were all play-makers. What do you see that these fellows had that Gagner doesn’t or can’t have?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
A chance to actually play in the playoffs?
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 3:40 PM MDT up reply actions
I did a stats project on playoff performance years ago. Playmakers points per game dropped less in the playoffs than goal scorers, by a decent margin. Playmakers are more valueable when the going gets tough than goal scorers.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Copper & Blue
Related FanShots on The Copper & Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Oilers Schedule
Last 5 Games
@
Vancouver
|
Sat 04/07 | L 0 - 3 |
|
Anaheim
|
Thu 04/05 | OT - L 2 - 3 |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Mon 04/02 | L 0 - 2 |
|
@
Anaheim
|
Sun 04/01 | W 2 - 1 |
|
Los Angeles
|
Fri 03/30 | L 1 - 4 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Watch Ilya Kovalchuk’s Game 6 goal for Devils, a.k.a. power-play porn (VIDEO)
- Devils look to eliminate Rangers in Game 6; Hal Gill’s broken tibia (Playoff Puck Previews)
- Conan O’Brien joins long list of LA media that don’t really know what’s going on with the Kings
- For Los Angeles Kings, when does rest become rust for Stanley Cup Final?
- Dominik Hasek wants NHL return; Tortorella on Game 6; Nash to Boston? (Puck Headlines)
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Simon Gagne enjoying LA Kings' success, returns to practice after concussion absence
- Gagne back at practice, enjoying Kings' success
- First-place Knights go sight-seeing while awaiting Memorial Cup final
- NHL Network and NHL.com unveil comprehensive coverage plans for the 2012 Stanley Cup Final
- Canadiens hire Rick Dudley as assistant GM
