Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Rampage Jackson Talks UFC 144, Japan Glory Days & Joe Rogan

Jordan Eberle - #3 In the Oilers Top 25 Under 25

When Jordan Eberle scored 106 points in 57 games as a 19 year-old junior player, I was impressed, but still somewhat skeptical. It's a good thing when a 5'10'' winger with good-but-not-great skating has tremendous success in the WHL, but enough of those players have come and gone without significant professional success that you still can't get too excited. When Jordan Eberle followed that junior performance with 14 points in 11 AHL games (giving him 23 in 20 over two seasons), I became more hopeful. The transition from the CHL to the AHL is a very difficult for many players, and to see Eberle make that transition so well was extremely encouraging. But it was just a few games. And so at the start of the 2010-11 season, Jordan Eberle began his rookie season in the NHL before thousands of very interested eyeballs. He didn't disappoint.  

Star-divide

RankPlayer DOBDraftedYearBen
Bruce
Derek
JaysenJonScott
3 Jordan Eberle 05/15/90
22 2008
3 3 7 2 3 3

 

Previous Rank: 3

The first thing that demands attention is Jordan Eberle's ability to score. He scored a beauty goal in his first-ever NHL game, and he scored a few more as the season went on. He scored early, and he scored after coming back from a mid-season injury to assure his fans that he'll be just fine going forward. 43 points in 69 games isn't an all-star pace, but it is very good, especially for a player as young as Eberle. In fact, it's so good that Eberle is now one of just 19 players to have scored at least 0.6 points per game at twenty years old or younger in the last five seasons. That doesn't make him unique, and not every player on that list is going on to greatness, but it does represent a fantastic debut.

But it's really his two-way game that's the most encouraging. The young man isn't playing a particularly demanding position defensively, but my own observation is that he does well positionally, comes back hard, and can get the puck out of his end smartly when the situation demands it. His scoring chance rate was in the black -which isn't something very many Oilers can say - and his individual scoring chance rate compares very well to the other wingers on the team (although his "chance against" rate is actually quite high, so I'll need to watch what's going on the defensive zone more closely going forward).

I don't know where exactly Eberle will fit on this Oilers team going forward - it depends on what the Oilers and Ales Hemsky decide to do in the next several months - but after a rookie year to remember, I'm quite confident that he'll be able to fill a significant role in the top nine forwards this coming season, and whatever role the team needs him to fill in that group over the long term.  

Comment 122 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Eberle must have pissed in Derek’s corn flakes. Everyone else has Eberle 3rd or higher.

The Edmonton Oilers - All we do is win!!

by OilLeak on Aug 2, 2011 11:58 AM MDT reply actions  

I can’t see how Derek could reasonably rank Eberle 7th. I simply can’t.

by Adam Dyck on Aug 2, 2011 11:59 AM MDT via mobile reply actions  

Haha not many people are happy with Derek’s rankings this time.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m curious to see where he has Hopkins.

by melancholyculkin on Aug 2, 2011 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

Almost certainly #6

Derek’s top ten so far:

1.
2. Gagner
3. Paajarvi
4. Omark
5. Petry
6.
7. Eberle
8. Pitlick
9. Klefbom
10. Lander

Ranking Hall and RNH higher is reasonable, and I can understand Gagner even if I disagree…Gagner is probably a better player than Eberle is now, although I think Eberle will be much better in four years than Gagner is now.

Even Petry makes some sense, in that he did far better in a tough role this year than anyone could have reasonably expected (while Eberle was expected to succeed and did). But Paajarvi and Omark? I’ll be really curious to learn the reasoning there.

Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.

by Ben Johnston on Aug 2, 2011 1:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

6 with Hall at 1.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Aug 2, 2011 2:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

He wouldn’t have been in my top 5 and he clearly didn’t make Derek’s either.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Aug 2, 2011 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

I wonder if there has been a situation since the merger where a guy was picked first overall and not considered to be among his team’s top five prospects. I’m thinking “no”.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

How many times has a team since the merger has a team drafted top 10 four out of five years, three years in a row and the last year being a weak draft class and seemingly found two outliers in later rounds of the draft?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

Gagner is from a very weak draft class

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

elaborating; a weak draft class can have good talents. Furthermore, I really have to search when was the last time the first forward chosen in a draft turned out to be the 5/6 th best player on his team

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 4:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

he is easily the best offensive forward of the team. maybe 3rd best overall player after keith/toews

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 6:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

He sits behind Towes, Keith, Sharp, Hossa, Seabrook.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

I done see eye to eye with you on this then

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 11:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’d agree with all that except Seabrook… I’d put Kane over him.

Well, I’m assuming you mean Toews and not some mysterious new prospect named Towes.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Aug 3, 2011 9:05 AM MDT up reply actions  

Wow, I completely forgot about Toews! So Toews, Towes, Keith, Sharp, Seabrook and Hossa.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 9:09 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

Why? You really think that he will not be better than Gagner/Eberle/MPS and whoever it is you have as top 5? Really dont think that much about the 1st overall eh?

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’d have Larsson in the same spot.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

Having seen Hall, Gagner, Eberle, Paajarvi, and Omark (that’d be my top 5) play against NHL competition I’m more confident in projecting what they could be. RNH has great potential and might be better than all of them but until he shows me something in the NHL I wouldn’t rank him ahead of any of that group.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Aug 2, 2011 3:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

woiuld you trade RNH for any of them?

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Omark os at best a 2nd line winger and Petry a second pairing D-man. If they reach thier potential. RNH at worst should be a second line center. Doest matter that they have been ok at the nhl, the point is that they may not be better than what they are now. By not ranking RNH in top 5, you are actually stating that you have no faith in the scouting department.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 4:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

RNH at worst should be a second line center.

He should be no worse but there is obviously a chance he could be. It’s a matter of personal choice how you rank these players, I’d lean more to what I know and less to potential whereas other might do the opposite. That’s probably as good a reason as any as to why I’d rank them that way.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Aug 2, 2011 4:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

There’s a chance he could be worse than Patrik Stefan. Not much of a chance, but a chance.

There’s a pretty long track record of forwards drafted 1 OV winding up on the first line. Sum was actually being pretty conservative with his statement.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 4:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

By that logic, would you have ranked Taylor Hall behind Gagner, Smid and Cogliano last season?

RNH is still unproven, but he’s got a great upside. I’ve got him behind Hall and Eberle, and just ahead of Gagner.

Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.

by Ben Johnston on Aug 2, 2011 4:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

Completely different situation. Last year Hall certainly belonged ahead of all the Oiler prospects with the only possible exception being Gagner.

A year later we’ve got five forwards we’ve seen against NHL competition and a player who has a lot of question marks in my mind. He might be as good as the rest of top five but I know how good the rest are. Until I see more from RNH I wouldn’t put might ahead of know.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Aug 2, 2011 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

Completely different situation. Hall was a near-consensus #1 overall pick coming off a 106-point season in junior, whereas RNH is … uhh … hmmm …. forget it.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 4:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

Wait when did Bruce become a big RNH fan?

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Aug 2, 2011 5:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

i think its logic and not just fandom

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 6:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

Since you agree with him it’s not surprising you think there’s some logic there too.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Aug 2, 2011 6:48 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

It's no mystery

First. Overall.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 7:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

http://theleafsnation.com/2011/7/25/better-know-a-bias-anchoring

I’m not saying he won’t be good, but draft position is only so relevant.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Aug 3, 2011 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions  

its not just bias.
Its faith in your scouting staff and others who have spoken so highly of him. Combined with the historical success with the 1st forward drafted, has us rating him this high.
You wont be convinced 1 way and I wont be convinced otherwise. So time to drop it,

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions  

I’ve barely said boo about it in any of this. I was pointing out that saying “but he was #1 overall” is kind of a weak argument, and that I’d have ranked him below the obvious top 5-7. Most of the arguing has been other people.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Aug 3, 2011 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

Since 1980 there have been 22 forwards drafted 1st overall and only 4 of them (Stephan, Daigle, Murphy and Wickenhieser) have been busts. The other 82% went on to be impact players (if you include Hall and Tavares as impact players). The percentages favour RNH.

by gcw_rocks on Aug 4, 2011 8:37 AM MDT up reply actions  

You can also add Brian Lawson to the bust list.

There’s also the fact that impact player is a pretty loose definition, especially if it includes players like Wendel Clark.

Also, other players on the list (i.e. Nolan), made an impact with a skill that RNH doesn’t possess (size, strength).

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Aug 4, 2011 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

Whoops, missed Lawton. Still, the percentages are pretty favourable. Clark wasn’t a Hall of Famer, but he was an impact player imo.

Each of the 17 that made it did it with different skills/attributes. The point was 1st overall picks (forwards) have a very high success rate, not just at playing 200 games, but in putting up points and being top players on thier teams.

I was against drafting RNH (wanted Larsson) but now that we got him, I would expect the odds to be with him.

by gcw_rocks on Aug 4, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think this is one thing the scouts are pretty good at i.e. identifying a top forward prospect at the draft.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 4, 2011 3:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

Again, that’s a pretty loose definition of impact player. He scored 50 or more points 3 times his entire career and he spent a good portion of his career in a pretty high scoring era.

And I don’t think picking #1 tilts the odds in your favour at all. I think history has shown that most teams get it right with #1 OV (provided it’s a F), but that doesn’t mean that because you went #1 OV it was the best choice.

2 very different arguments.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Aug 4, 2011 9:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

I am not arguing he was the best choice. I was part of team Larsson and if a forward would rather have had Huberdeau. All I am saying is 1st overall forwards have a very high success rate.

On Clark – he was am impact player in other ways than just offense. He was the heart and soul of some pretty bad Leaf teams. Points aren’t the only measure of an impact player in my books. Its the easiest indicator, but not the only one.

by gcw_rocks on Aug 5, 2011 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Which a bunch of people currently celebrating a 22nd overall draft choice should realize.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

Note to self: include Ryan in next rankings.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

I was looking at this and it seems to be a mistake. I should have had Eberle in 6th.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

I can’t see how Derek could reasonably rank Eberle 7th. I simply can’t.

Petry is the only one I think you’d have an argument against, but top-end defensemen mean so much in the NHL and he’s got a chance to get there.

Paajarvi’s physical tools along with his comps and Omark’s proven goal-scoring history through NHLE are enough to put them both in front of Eberle.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 2:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

I agree with you about having Paajarvi and Gagner ahead of Eberle, but I’m not sure I understand Omark. I know he was fighting the percentages for most of the year, but his “proven goal-scoring history through NHLE” as rational seems a little suspect to me.

Put it this way. If Eberle and Omark both need new contracts by tomorrow and you can only afford one of them, would you really keep Omark over Eberle?

by melancholyculkin on Aug 2, 2011 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Put it this way. If Eberle and Omark both need new contracts by tomorrow and you can only afford one of them, would you really keep Omark over Eberle?

What do you think Omark would’ve posted with Hall and Horcoff as his primary teammates last season?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

It wasn’t all sunshine for Eberle last year.

From the trade deadline on, he was pretty much the #1 forward on the team in terms of what other teams were targetting. There was no Hall, no Horcoff, no Penner.

In the last 17 games without Hall, Eberle posted 3g 5a for a 0.47 ppg which is pretty comparable to Omarks 0.53 that he posted. Eberle is also 3 years younger.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Aug 3, 2011 8:06 AM MDT up reply actions  

One thing we can all agree on, I think, is that you’re in a helluva good position if Jordan Eberle is your seventh best player under 25.

by Adam Dyck on Aug 2, 2011 4:32 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

Sixth. I screwed up my vote somehow.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Does swapping the numbers actually change the outcomes? If not, can you just flip them in the posts and be done with it?

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Aug 3, 2011 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

In this case, it actually would change the outcome.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 3, 2011 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

Heh. Yup. It moves Eberle up to #2 and Hopkins down to #3

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 12:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

That would, frankly, make more sense to me.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Aug 3, 2011 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well, blame me. I screwed the whole thing up.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 3:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

It’s just funny how the “rational” stats can be clouded by what I think is an irrational dislike of one player on your part. IF his progress continues more or less unimpeded than Eberle will be better than Hemsky ever be by the age of 25. I mean smth like over 1.1 Pts/game. What Eberle does has “magic” in it. How do you quantify that? Then of course, all Eberle’s goals were flukes and had no business of going in… Except they did:)

by Roman_Pilgrim on Aug 3, 2011 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

Maybe if your mind weren’t clouded by an irrational dislike of Magnus Paajarvi, you would rank him higher.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 6:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

Comparing Eberle and Omark’s performances last season, Eberle went 18-25-43 in 69 games, while Omark went 5-22-27 in 51 games. In the Omark writeup, you made the point that if Omark’s shooting percentage hadn’t dropped off, he would have gone 10-22-32 in 51 games, but even so he’d still be dead even with Eberle. The difference is that one of them managed it in practice and the other only in theory.

Omark’s NHLE stats are great, but I don’t think they’re strong enough to outweigh either man’s actual performance last year.

Loyal fan of the Edmonton Oilers. Don't you judge me.

by Ben Johnston on Aug 2, 2011 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

And Eberle is younger

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 4:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Beat me to it, cuz I was looking up how much younger. Which is 3 years, 3 months and 10 days.

I’m guessing Eberle will score more than 5 goals as a 23-year-old.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 4:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

Omark has four years of scoring history in professional leagues. He’s a very, very good player overlooked by Oilers fans because he doesn’t use cliches in his answers.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 5:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

no thats not the reason. most people here loves that about him. I think the fact that Eberle actually outperformed him being younger than him is the reason poeple like eberle more.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 6:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

I love Omark as a player, to the point i would like to see the Oilers keep him and trade Hemsky. But if you are using actual NHL results as the key barometer then Eberle wins hands down.

by gcw_rocks on Aug 3, 2011 5:57 AM MDT up reply actions  

wtf

Eberle at 7th Derek?
Hardly a fair assessment.This kid is a clutch scorer and can change games.Remember the world Jrs? He looks alot better than most of our other so called prospects!

by slaytanic on Aug 2, 2011 4:09 PM MDT reply actions  

haha

If this is sarcasm, it’s funny.
If this is seriousness, it’s even more humorous.

Please tell me you were serious.

by DarrenV on Aug 2, 2011 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

Don’t see how Petry could rank above Eberle. More games played in the NHL? Nope. Made the team out of training camp? Nope. Played on the top line/pairing? Nope. Avoided demotion inducing slumps? Nope. A top scorer for his position? Nope. Better plus/minus? Nope. Better relCORSI? Nope.

by gcw_rocks on Aug 2, 2011 4:22 PM MDT reply actions   2 recs

Younger? Nope, not even close.

Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 2, 2011 4:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

High-end defensemen mean so much to NHL teams.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 5:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

But Petry is not a high end NHL defenseman. He could turn into one, but (at least in my opinion), the chance of Petry becoming a high end defenseman is far less likely than Eberle becoming a high end RW. Good players at any position mean so much to NHL teams, and I just have a hard time understanding how you can view Petry close enough to Eberle in terms of ability to let his position boost him ahead.

Also, Derek, I was wondering what your ranking system is. I know you’ve said you don’t use Scott’s system of if they’re both RFA’s, no arbitration rights etc.. I’m just curious since your rankings seem to have caused quite the buzz.

by bhommy on Aug 2, 2011 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

I know you’ve said you don’t use Scott’s system of if they’re both RFA’s, no arbitration rights etc.. I’m just curious since your rankings seem to have caused quite the buzz.

count me in

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 6:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m up next with the #2 ranked guy and I think you will find that Derek and I use some similar ranking criteria.

My mistake wasn’t Eberle, and maybe I didn’t make one… but I will explain some of that in tomorrow’s post.

Derek and I would have disagreed on Larsson however – I would have had Larsson ranked top-5.

by Jaysen Knight on Aug 2, 2011 8:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

as would have Derek. He has his favorites.
I am interested for tomorrow. See Jaysen even though the 2 of you might use similar criteria, your rankings are in the range of expected ranking of a player.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 11:52 PM MDT up reply actions  

But Petry is not a high end NHL defenseman.

But he’s got arrows.

the chance of Petry becoming a high end defenseman is far less likely than Eberle becoming a high end RW

Based on…?

Good players at any position mean so much to NHL teams,

Defensemen mean more.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

Based on the fact that Eberle played an entire year in the NHL at age 20, and he performed very well, especially for a 20 year old rookie. Petry played less than half a year in the NHL at age 24, and while he was impressive, he was not a world beater. He clearly has skill and made many wonderful plays, but I thought he still has a lot of work to even be considered a lefgitimate NHL defenseman on a good team, and fact of the matter is 24 year olds improve a hell of a lot less than 20 year olds usually do. So basically, in my view, Eberle now is better than Petry now, both are first year pros, except Eberle is 3-4 years younger. That’s why I’d say there’s a much greater chance that Eberle becomes a top RW. Not to mention Eberle has the same (if not more) arrows going for him.

by bhommy on Aug 2, 2011 8:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

So basically, in my view, Eberle now is better than Petry now, both are first year pros, except Eberle is 3-4 years younger.

I’m glad you said “in my view”.

Now I don’t have to respond with anything except “In my view I disagree”

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well the entire exercise is personal opinion, everything anyone says is in their view. I’m just curious why you think Petry is better now/will continue to be better than Eberle down the road as I think it’s safe to say that the majority opinion is that Eberle is better now and will be long term as well.

by bhommy on Aug 2, 2011 11:40 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’d be curious to read why, in your opiniion, D are more important than F?

Just that they are on the ice more? That they are paid less? That they have more impact on results than forwards?

by hockeysymposium on Aug 2, 2011 8:55 PM MDT up reply actions  

Just that they are on the ice more? That they are paid less? That they have more impact on results than forwards?

Yes.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t think you’ll find many people who think defenceman drive results more than forwards.

Sure, there are a handful of defencemen who can do it (we’re talking your Prongers and Lidstroms), but forwards, on the whole, have always driven results.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Aug 3, 2011 8:10 AM MDT up reply actions  

A top 2 defenseman is worth just over two wins per season. Lidstrom and Pronger in their prime are worth significantly more.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions  

But Eberle is closer to Hossa than Petry to the above mentioned D men

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

Eberle is closer to Marian Hossa than Petry to a top 2 defenseman?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

ok I should explain what I am getting at.
Eberle will be able to drive results better than Petry.

I don’t think you’ll find many people who think defenceman drive results more than forwards.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

To Pronger/Lidstrom, specifically.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.

by Doogie2K on Aug 3, 2011 3:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

Oh. Maybe. But a top 2 dman is still worth 2 wins. Petry has a decent chance to be that.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 3:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

do you have links to any articles talking about the value of D, and W, and C, I would be curious to read them if you do.

by hockeysymposium on Aug 3, 2011 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t know of any handy. It’s stuff I’ve been working on for another project.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 6:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

Are we talking in over replacement level, because if so that’s not much.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Aug 4, 2011 7:40 AM MDT up reply actions  

While I agree D is more important than F, Petry is not more important than RNH.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 12:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

But he’s got arrows.

Actually Eberle has sharper/stronger arrows than Petry and even Omark.
And Ryan Hopkins has better arrows than either of them all.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 11:47 PM MDT up reply actions  

Also, Derek, I was wondering what your ranking system is. I know you’ve said you don’t use Scott’s system of if they’re both RFA’s, no arbitration rights etc.. I’m just curious since your rankings seem to have caused quite the buzz.

I look at draft peers, NHLE, and a bit of seen him good. There are other tie-breaking factors, but those are the primary three.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

Nope. We don’t look at the same stuff at all. Serious. It’s kind of funny actually. :-)

[EDIT TO ADD] Actually, I’m wrong – we do look at things somewhat the same way – though I’m not sure what you mean by draft peers.

by Jaysen Knight on Aug 2, 2011 8:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

I go +/- 5-10 positions to find peers and their production.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

So who are CVV’s peers and how have they done?

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 11:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

Guys like Hensick, Sobotka, and a few others were drafted right around CVV, and Hensick went the NCAA route as well, but draft peers don’t really matter to me once the players have a history in the NCAA or professional leagues.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 9:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

but his history in the professional leagues is terrible. You are willing to give him a chance to show can do better than last season, but not giving Eberle a chance to outperform Omark and show he is better than Petry?

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:26 AM MDT up reply actions  

What are you talking about? I have Vande Velde ranked 21st.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 10:28 AM MDT up reply actions  

yeah ahead of cogliano

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

What does Vande Velde and Cogliano have to do with Eberle?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 10:33 AM MDT up reply actions  

nothing much it made more sense to me at some point of time.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

Sobotka was a point per game player in the Ahl at a much younger age than CVV and Hensick was a much better performer than CVV at every stage

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:30 AM MDT up reply actions  

you cant use them as comparables to judge CVV.

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

Guys like Hensick, Sobotka, and a few others were drafted right around CVV, and Hensick went the NCAA route as well, but draft peers don’t really matter to me once the players have a history in the NCAA or professional leagues.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

I understand that, but how do you decide who to rank higher? For instance, you said you’d have Larsson ranked below Petry. Do you really think that Petry is a better prospect, or is that some sort of weighting proven commodities higher than more unkowns? If you don’t view it as “which guy would I most want to start a new franchise with”, then how is it that you decide?

by bhommy on Aug 2, 2011 8:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

No. Why would you try to attribute something I didn’t say to me?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 8:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

well, you said that you’d have Larsson in the same spot as RNH – i.e. 7th, or 6th given that there was some sort of mistake with your rankings. But that means he’d be behind Petry, who you have at 5th. Am I missing something?

by Yeti# on Aug 2, 2011 9:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

If we take NHLE + peers + seen him good, I’d still like Petry more.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 2, 2011 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

So then what exactly did I wrongfully attribute to you…?

by bhommy on Aug 2, 2011 11:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

i highly doubt that if we had picked Larsson you would have him 7th,

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 2, 2011 11:46 PM MDT up reply actions  

You’re calling me a liar?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 8:25 AM MDT up reply actions  

Larsson would have been a 1st overall pick, played major minutes on a team in the third best league in the world that went to the finals where he still got major minutes (if I recall correctly) at a very young age and you would have ranked him behind Petry whose primary resume is NCAA which is a far inferior league and who showed moments in the NHL and but no where near enough to be considered proven?

Sorry, not buying

by gcw_rocks on Aug 3, 2011 6:07 AM MDT up reply actions  

You’re calling me a liar as well?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 8:26 AM MDT up reply actions  

Obsolutely not. Just imagining the alternative future and supposing a different outcome based on everything i have read of your work and comments. Since that alternative reality can never happen any speculation about it can be nothing more than that, speculation. Even your own.

But to assume SumOil’s or I are calling you a liar is a big leap and not within the spirit of my post and I highly doubt it is within the spirit of SumOil’s.

This is supposed to be fun for us readers, I think, and if we can’t poke a little fun or question logic, what’s the point?

Henceforth I commit not to comment on any of your posts or respond to any of your comments. Satisfactory?

by gcw_rocks on Aug 3, 2011 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

Should say “Abolsutely not”…

by gcw_rocks on Aug 3, 2011 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions  

Just imagining the alternative future and supposing a different outcome based on everything i have read of your work and comments

My votes on Petry in the four lists we’ve done:

4-7-5-5

I think highly of Petry. Very highly.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 2:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

I said I would rank him 7th. Your response is:

Sorry, not buying

You do not believe what I said to be true. I’m not sure what you’re saying other than “You’re lying about your answer.”

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

I dont wish this to escalate more than it already has. But you are taking his words way too seriously and way to literally.

My votes on Petry in the four lists we’ve done:
4-7-5-5
I think highly of Petry. Very highly

This is what creates the doubt in our minds. Why would you not regard larsson this highly? considering you liked Larsson much much more than RNH and you like to take historical performances into account. GCQ and I thought you rushed into declaring that you will put Larsson at 7 and did not think it through.
We maybe wrong, but you can just say that rather than accusing him of calling you a liar, GCQ also has never been as asshole to anyone on this site and has generally been very even tempered in his responses. So for him to suddenly accuse you of being a liar would be contradictory to his behavior on this site.
You and I have put this issue to the grave and lets all just get past it. Tomorrow will be Hall’s day and I think the entire C&B community is waiting for it

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Aug 3, 2011 3:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

And no, it’s not “satisfactory”. There’s an enormous difference between what Sum says your intended meaning was and how it looks to me. Poking fun and vigorous debate is fine, it’s most welcome and is the backbone of a community like this. I’ve never tried to cover up my writing history like others, I’ve never ignored challenges to the things I’ve written like others have.

I was asked the question about Larsson previous to this discussion and already considered my ranking of him before the question was raised here. I said then that I would rank him 6th, though I screwed up my rankings and it would be 7th. So you either take me at my word or you don’t. Saying you don’t buy it or don’t believe it as you’ve both done is calling me out directly.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 3, 2011 3:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

Please stop trolling. Derek has produced an exceptional volume of excellent work on this site and he fully deserves to have his opinions posted and discussed. On this particularly issue, I don’t agree with him – I think it’s far fetched to have RNH at 6 or 7; but he has damn well earned the right to put forward his arguments without being trolled by you.

by Yeti# on Aug 3, 2011 8:01 AM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

For a bunch of ‘stats geeks’, the lack of consistency and rigour in your ranking criteria is shocking! ; )

by gcw_rocks on Aug 3, 2011 6:09 AM MDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to SB Nation's Edmonton Oilers community.

Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 60 38 16 6 82
Calgary 60 28 23 9 65
Colorado 60 29 27 4 62
Minnesota 59 26 24 9 61
Edmonton 59 23 30 6 52

(updated 2.22.2012 at 8:41 PM MST)

23 - 30 - 6

Won 1

Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

  1. Detroit Red Wings (24-7, .774)
  2. Vancouver Canucks (20-8, .714)
  3. St. Louis Blues (15-6, .714)
  4. San Jose Sharks (15-7, .682)
  5. Chicago Blackhawks (18-14, .563)
  6. Nashville Predators (12-10, .545)
  7. Los Angeles Kings (10-9, .526)
  8. Phoenix Coyotes (13-12, .520)
  9. Anaheim Ducks (11-14, .440)
  10. Dallas Stars (12-16, .429)
  11. Colorado Avalanche (10-14, .417)
  12. Edmonton Oilers (12-18, .400)
  13. Calgary Flames (10-16, .385)
  14. Minnesota Wild (8-15,.348)
  15. Columbus Blue Jackets (6-21, .222)

Eastern Conference

  1. Boston Bruins (21-7, .750)
  2. New York Rangers (20-10, .667)
  3. Pittsburgh Penguins (20-10, .667)
  4. Philadelphia Flyers (15-13, .536)
  5. Ottawa Senators (13-13, .500)
  6. New Jersey Devils (12-12, .500)
  7. Washington Capitals (14-15, .483)
  8. Toronto Maple Leafs (14-15, .483)
  9. Montreal Canadiens (12-13, .480)
  10. Winnipeg Jets (12-15, .444)
  11. Carolina Hurricanes (10-13, .435)
  12. Florida Panthers (8-13, .381)
  13. Buffalo Sabres (9-16, .360)
  14. Tampa Bay Lightning (9-22, .290)
  15. New York Islanders (6-17, .261)

Division Standings

  1. Central (59-42, .584)
  2. Atlantic (51-42, .548)
  3. Northeast (53-48, .525)
  4. Pacific (42-39, .519)
  5. Northwest (37-48, .435)
  6. Southeast (36-59, .379)


Managing Editor

Kurri_small Derek Zona

Laraque_horcoff_250x360_small Scott Reynolds

Columnists

Batman_small ryanbatty

0615pisani_small dawgbone98

Okc_shoulder_small Eric Rodgers

Neal_small Neal Livingston

Mike_small Mike Wntrz

Contributors

Newtwitter2_small Jonathan Willis

Mccurdycloseup_small Bruce McCurdy

Esaandstanley_small Benjamin Massey

Me_smyth_bobblehead3__1_of_1__small Lisa McRitchie

Small Triumph44

Gyi0062208469-bobrovsky_small Chase W

Small JaredL