Worse Defense - Edmonton or Colorado? You Make The Call.
Edmonton's defense takes a large amount of abuse for it's shortcomings, and rightfully so. The Oilers have two natural right defensemen and six on the left side. They only have two legitimate top four defenseman on the roster, yet have six bottom pairing guys tagging along. It's not a pretty picture. They're short on penalty killers and don't have the horses to run with the Flames, let alone the Canucks.
But the Oilers are not alone in the Northwest when it comes a weak blueline. I was chatting with Broad Street Hockey's Geoff Detweiler recently when he brought up the Colorado Avalanche's blueline in a "what in the world are they doing?" kind of way. After taking a deeper look, I agreed with Mr. Detweiler - General Manager Greg Sherman is doing his best to build a similarly bad defense 1,000 miles to the south in Colorado. Sherman tried to fix his problems by dealing Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk for franchise defenseman Erik Johnson, Jay McClement and a 1st round draft pick, signing Jan Hejda to a four-year deal and Shane O'Brien to a one-year deal. But things aren't completely rosy in Colorado.
Comparing the depth charts side-by-side makes the breakdown fairly simple and straightforward. I've used the expected depth charts from each team and totaled the cap hit of each group at the bottom of each chart.
| Left Defense | |
| Ryan Whitney | Jan Hejda |
| Ladislav Smid | Ryan Wilson |
| Theo Peckham | Kyle Cumiskey |
| 7.325 |
4.525 |
First off - the gap in dollars spent isn't as wide as these numbers indicate since I've got Cumiskey on the list and he hasn't yet signed.
On to the analysis: Whitney and Hejda are polar opposites in style, but when healthy, they are similar in effectiveness. Hejda is 33 years old and slowing, Whitney is still in his prime. Whitney wins this by a nose. Smid is out of place in the top four, but Wilson is even more out of place. A comparison of the two shows that Wilson is still struggling to get the puck moving. The Oilers win again. Cumiskey's numbers look better than Peckham's at first glance, but Cumiskey has played some seriously sheltered minutes, while Peckham has done the opposite, mostly due to injuries. Peckham wins this one by a nose.
Verdict: The Oilers sweep the entire left side, something I don't know they'd do against any other team in the NHL.
| Right Defense | |
| Tom Gilbert | Erik Johnson |
| Jeff Petry | Kyle Quincey |
| Cam Barker | Ryan O'Byrne |
| 7.25 |
7.525 |
The dollars match, so neither team can claim a better value proposition on the right side.
The breakdown: Johnson bests Gilbert by about the same margin that Whitney bests Hejda. They've played similar roles for the last few years, but Johnson should be better. Whether he can do that in Colorado without Roman Polak remains to be seen. Jeff Petry is completely unproven but looked good last year in his first season. That doesn't compare to Kyle Quincey, a proven commodity and one of the few Avs who comes close to handling himself against the toughs. Barker is playing the wrong side and hasn't been very good to this point in his career. O`Byrne is an underrated commodity - he's played tougher minutes without sheltered starts and has performed admirably.
Verdict: The Avs win the entire right side.
| Press Box |
|
| Andy Sutton | Shane O'Brien |
| Taylor Chorney | Matt Hunwick |
| 2.86 |
2.65 |
Once again, the dollars are very close.
Sutton and O'Brien are both penalty-prone defenders with limited possession capabilities. Chorney and Hunwick are both swift-staking, unproven defenders without much of a resume.
Verdict: Tie.
| Total Cap Hit |
|
| 17.435 | 14.7 |
Cumiskey's contract is going to bring the Avs' final defensive cap hit much closer to the Oiler's cap hit, effectively washing out most of the spending difference. The Oilers win the left side, the Avs the right and they tie in the press box. Both teams are going to have some serious issues on the back-end in 2011-2012. "But he's doing it too!" isn't a legitimate excuse, especially when "it" is building a bad defense, but at least the Oilers aren't alone in their defensive struggles.
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If Whitney plays 80 games I think the Oilers clearly win here. If he only plays half a season I think the only way the Oil win is if P&P take steps forward and Barker surprises (in a good way)
Insert Witty Comment Here
by VanillaAcid on Aug 19, 2011 12:27 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
I dont think Erik Johnson is ahead of GIlbert as of last season. Maybe with some training in the off season and maturity, he outperforms Gilbert, but as of right now I would rate him behind Gilbert. But Quincey towers over Petry and sheer uselesness of Cam Barker makes Avs win right side hands down.
Also Ryan Wilson seems only slightly worse than Smid. If you believ in corsi rel Quals, he had higher competition with lesser teammates. And so with a 43% zs his corsi is expected. Now I dont know what his expected zone finish is, but zone finish of 49.4 seems decent to me.
IMO Colorado may just be marginally better despite being worse on the LH side.
However Colorado’s defense hurts the Avs organisation more than Oilers’ D hurts us.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Colorado still has a month and a half to trade more of their players for worse players.
Original member of the Mike Weber bandwagon!
To make up for lost time, the Sabres signed six seasons worth of front-loaded cap skirting contracts in one week.
Good point. They could trade the 2013 first rounder for Mike Commodore
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/6/9/2215663/you-want-a-rebuild-speeds-will-give-you-a-rebuild
or we could trade Gilbert and Musil for Commodore and Coutourier. that would surely speed up the rebuild
by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Aug 20, 2011 2:41 AM MDT up reply actions
You either didn’t understand the post or you’re trolling.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m not sure i understand the definition of trolling. I gather it’s saying something i don’t actually believe in order to start a debate…?
I’m actually just pointing out some borderline hypocrisy in your writing Derek, you supported speeds’ rebuild plan (just before the draft) in trading for Commodore. But then you ridiculed a similar trade just now….
I like how you deleted my bit about how you were TROLLING when you put RNH 7th in your top 25
by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Aug 20, 2011 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions
you supported speeds’ rebuild plan
Please point out exactly where I supported it. The exact words.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It’s a smart, effective strategy, especially for teams who are 4-5 years away from contending, can freely spend to the cap, and have $20 million in cap space.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jun 13, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up actions
by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Aug 21, 2011 11:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Which was in response to a team taking on a bad contract and getting a decent asset as well.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
by dawgbone98 on Aug 22, 2011 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
And there is also this comment further down:
Actually, I don’t want to do anything with Mike Commodore, speeds does. But the idea has merit.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
by dawgbone98 on Aug 22, 2011 8:37 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you’re being overly harsh on Shane O’Brien there. He had a solid season for Nashville in a 3rd-pair role in 5-on-5, and did a fine job on the Preds’ top PK pair, helping Nashville climb back into the league’s top penalty-killing teams after a poor 2009-10 season.
That, and he only takes about half as many penalties as he used to in his early years.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
So he did well in a heavily sheltered role?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I wouldn't say "heavily"
He played safety net for Cody Franson much of the season, and as I mentioned, played top-pair on the penalty kill.
Managing Editor of On the Forecheck, SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators, and HockeyGearHQ, a site devoted to news, reviews, and deals on hockey equipment and accessories. Catch me on Twitter, or join OTF on Facebook!
He probably took more penalties in Van because he looked to be playing too aggressively in comparison to the rest of the nucks. If you put sam gagner on a women’s ringette team i’m sure he would get tons of penalties too.
by One_Roy_Save_On_The_Calendar on Aug 20, 2011 2:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Avs fan here...
Not a bad analysis, but I seriously doubt Cumiskey will even see the big club this year. He has a 2-way RFA tender on the table and the Avs are doing the take it or leave it dance. The guy has some serious speed, but I think most Avs fans would prefer to see Holos, Gaunce, or Elliott in that position. They all have Cumiskey on size, poise, and defensive skill, or in Elliott’s case offensive upside.
I also think O’Brien will get a fair amount of time on the bench (not in the stands). I think it’s reasonable to expect that Colorado will be in a re-constituted Pacific division in ‘12-’13, and size will be a key factor. They’ll want to work the stupid out of him this year, or know it’s not possible. I also expect to see Hunwick get some ice time. I cannot say why, but the Avs staff seems to like the guy. He improved substantially late last season.
"It's all about the $"
Lawn defender since... crap, I can't remember.
Real expected Colorado pairings:
Hejda – Johnson
Quincey – O’Byrne
Wilson – O’Brien
Cumiskey probably won’t see the NHL, due to a 2 way tender and being waiver eligible. Hunwick might beat out O’Brien or Wilson with some coaching favoritism, but I sure hope not after his incredible awfulness last year (that the Avs inexplicably re-signed, and are paying 1.5m). Quincey plays the left side normally to our knowledge (I understand the confusion, he played RD with Hannan).
so with updated pairings, I’d say:
Whitney > Hejda
Smid < Quincey
Peckham ~= Wilson
Gilbert << Johnson
Petry < O’Byrne
Barker < O’Brien

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