Sam Gagner - #4 In the Oilers Top 25 Under 25

It’s tough to judge Gagner, on one hand he has played through 4 seasons without setting the world on fire, on the other hand he’s still only 21.

Although it seems like consensus that the oilers botched Gagner’s development, I don’t know if I would have done anything different considering the circumstances.

Imagine its 2007 and you are Kevin Lowe. You have your latest highly touted prospect who just finished putting up 118 points in 53 games in the OHL. You can choose to put him in the OHL or the NHL. It’s obvious there was not much left to accomplish in juniors (unless you want to ask him to put up 200 points next time), so I can certainly see why that the NHL would appear to be the best developmental route for him.

Furthermore, at the end of his first NHL season, he came away a point shy of 50 in his rookie year as an 18 year old. Players in over their heads do not put up 40+ points in the NHL as a rookie. He was right in the middle of the production of other first overall picks, Stamkos (42pts), Tavares (54pts), and Hall (42 in a short season). Unless someone wants to argue that each of those players were rushed, I think we should cut some slack to the oilers management.

For whatever reason, Gagner has not progressed as quickly as some expected him to, but I don’t think blaming management is a valid excuse. I still believe Gagner will be a very good NHL player (and is a decent one already), so we have to remember that everyone develops at different rates. Even the Sedins took about 7 years after they were drafted to even approach a point per game pace. Gagner still has some time.

I think the two thing that i consistently hear as a criticism of Gagner that drive me nuts are “he hasn’t improved”, and “he is only ever going to be a mediocre 2nd line center, at best”. You did an excellent job dispelling the former notion with this article. Add the points made in the article, along with the facts that players don’t develop in a straight line and he is still a very young center (in fact most center’s haven’t even made the NHL yet), and i think one could make a very reasonable argument that his celling is still very much unknown.

For comparison Jordan Eberle, not even a year younger, scored at virtually the same rate while playing an easier position, and according to the majority of these same fans is a “sure thing star”. Another example is Henrik Sedin who scored at a worse rate in every single comparable year to this point in Gagner’s career, yet it would be considered lunacy by these same people to suggest Gagner could still develop into a first line center. They refrence Stamkos, Tavares, and other elite centers and say, " top 6 centers are established stars at this point in their career" ignoring the fact that they are in fact the exception, and not the rule (I’m too lazy to provide evidence, but i did look it up once before, and had found it to be true in an argument i made on a diffrent forum).

So in summary, I am not going to sit here and say Gagner is a sure thing 1st-2nd line center, however in considering common understandings about player development, i think it is very reasonable to expect he is still at least 4 years away from his prime, and a very good bet to make be a offensive diffrence maker in that time. 21 year old centers do not typicaly post the kind of numbers of a Sam Gagner at this point in their career, so for that I rate him 4th overall(he’s neck and neck with Eberle), and say to all Oiler fans pateince.

If you use the criteria of top 30=1st line, top 60=2nd line then Gagner is already a second-line center. He was the 49th highest scoring center last season. If he had played a full year and scored 50 points last year he would be 36th.

Also, should we be worried about Gagner’s next contract? Laich got $4.5M and Dubinsky and Callahan got $4.275M and $4.2M. Offensively speaking, Gagner is in the same class as those guys. Not to mention it will probably be his last contract before UFA status.

I see valid points on both sides of the Gagner argument (i think we should trade him because his girlfriend is way too hot!)

My question is how many seasons under 50 points until the “He’s still young/developing” crowd changes their minds? I guess the answer is….until the market prices him out of edmonton’s depth chart"

I’m sure theres a better answer out there

My problem with Gagner is that I think he would do best with fairly big two-way wingers with some speed, and I just don’t see them on the Oilers’ depth chart. Give him Lucic-type wingers and watch him soar. Give him Omark or Eberle and watch the line get crushed.