Edmonton Oilers Scoring Chances 2009-2011

One of the great things about the work done by Dennis King at MC79hockey is the sheer amount of scoring chance information available to Oilers' fans.  I've torn it apart, put it back together and posted the raw numbers and combinations in nearly every way imaginable.  After the jump is the set of combined numbers from the last two seasons.

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; CH% = scoring chance percentage;  CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; CF/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; DIFF/15 = scoring chance differential per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice;

*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table.  Initial sort is CD/15.

#  Player  TCF TCA CH% CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
32 Ryan Stone 73 61 0.545 5.010 4.186 0.823
4 Taylor Hall 349 321 0.521 5.344 4.916 0.429
27 Dustin Penner 608 576 0.514 4.936 4.677 0.260
12 Robert Nilsson 195 189 0.508 4.670 4.527 0.144
14 Jordan Eberle 309 303 0.505 4.764 4.672 0.093
56 Teemu Hartikainen 40 39 0.506 3.470 3.383 0.087
57 Colin McDonald 3 3 0.500 3.362 3.362 0.000
83 Ales Hemsky 308 310 0.498 4.824 4.855 -0.031
91 Mike Comrie 116 124 0.483 4.508 4.819 -0.311
12 Alexandre Giroux 20 22 0.476 3.295 3.625 -0.330
89 Sam Gagner 538 590 0.477 4.557 4.997 -0.440
54 Chris VandeVelde 44 49 0.473 3.965 4.416 -0.451
16 Ryan Potulny 188 209 0.474 4.474 4.973 -0.500
13 Andrew Cogliano 538 622 0.464 4.147 4.794 -0.647
10 Shawn Horcoff 459 536 0.461 4.319 5.044 -0.725
23 Linus Omark 153 185 0.453 3.580 4.329 -0.749

Fwd Average

0.455 3.982 4.769 -0.788
91 Magnus Paajarvi 265 322 0.451 3.750 4.557 -0.807
67 Gilbert Brule 335 409 0.450 4.059 4.956 -0.897
85 Liam Reddox 130 174 0.428 3.268 4.374 -1.106
46 Zack Stortini 160 219 0.422 3.054 4.181 -1.126
22 Jean-Francois Jacques 182 249 0.422 3.309 4.528 -1.218
19 Patrick O`Sullivan 224 291 0.435 4.113 5.344 -1.230
16 Colin Fraser 90 135 0.400 2.705 4.057 -1.352
28 Ryan Jones 164 274 0.374 2.745 4.586 -1.841
78 Marc-Antoine Pouliot 68 106 0.391 3.456 5.388 -1.932
42 Ryan O`Marra 33 68 0.327 2.120 4.369 -2.249
18 Ethan Moreau 175 305 0.365 3.347 5.834 -2.486
34 Fernando Pisani 74 141 0.344 2.902 5.529 -2.627
33 Steve MacIntyre 14 41 0.255 1.676 4.908 -3.232
36 Charles Linglet 1 5 0.167 1.389 6.944 -5.556
39 Chris Minard 6 22 0.214 2.086 7.648 -5.562

 

Based on the work I've done with the Florida Panthers scoring chances and the work I've seen elsewhere, and all things being equal (zonestart, qualcomp, etc.) I believe that a chance percentage of 45% is replacement-level.  I believe it could be a bit higher (somewhere just north of 46%), but another season of data will help to reach stronger conclusions and 45% is a safe bet thus far.  If 45% is indeed replacement level, it's a bit of a concern that the Oilers' forwards have averaged 45% over the last two seasons.  It's worth pointing out, however, that all things haven't been equal for the Oilers over the last two seasons.  First, neither Pat Quinn nor Tom Renney saw fit to match lines at any point during their tenure.  Second, injuries have ravaged the Oilers over the last two seasons and forced players into roles they were not ready for or capable of handling.

Most of the players at the top of the list and most of the players at the bottom of the list are long gone, leaving a significant portion of the middle of the list, mostly a list of players who have not had much success by the numbers, underlying stats or traditional stats.

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; CH% = scoring chance percentage;  CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; CF/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; DIFF/15 = scoring chance differential per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice;

*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table.  Initial sort is CD/15.

#  Player  TSC TSCA CH% CF/15 CA/15 CD/15
58 Jeff Petry 162 143 0.531 4.270 3.769 0.501
71 Lubomir Visnovsky 296 288 0.507 4.847 4.716 0.131
77 Tom Gilbert 716 763 0.484 4.250 4.529 -0.279
44 Sheldon Souray 173 187 0.481 4.819 5.209 -0.390
6 Ryan Whitney 245 271 0.475 4.351 4.812 -0.462
5 Ladislav Smid 570 635 0.473 4.191 4.669 -0.478

Def Average

0.463 4.205 4.867 -0.662
37 Denis Grebeshkov 205 244 0.457 4.326 5.149 -0.823
2 Jim Vandermeer 246 299 0.451 3.955 4.807 -0.852
26 Kurtis Foster 239 301 0.443 3.667 4.619 -0.951
24 Steve Staios 161 203 0.442 4.478 5.646 -1.168
43 Jason Strudwick 347 472 0.424 3.660 4.979 -1.319
49 Theo Peckham 318 440 0.420 3.616 5.004 -1.387
45 Shawn Belle 13 21 0.382 2.658 4.294 -1.636
48 Alex Plante 15 26 0.366 2.766 4.794 -2.028
41 Taylor Chorney 151 244 0.382 3.348 5.411 -2.062
2 Aaron Johnson 53 82 0.393 3.787 5.859 -2.072
37 Richard Petiot 6 10 0.375 3.763 6.271 -2.508
8 Dean Arsene 15 34 0.306 2.697 6.113 -3.416
58 Johan Motin 1 9 0.100 1.148 10.332 -9.184

 

The defense is only slightly better, but at least they've hung on to four of the six above average defenseman, unlike the forwards who were turned out.  Even more concerning with the defense is the two men slotted for regular duty next season, Kurtis Foster and Theo Peckham, have performed below replacement levels over parts of last two seasons.

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