Edmonton Oilers Scoring Chances 2009-2011

by Derek Zona on Jul 5, 2011 6:30 AM MDT in Statistical Analysis

One of the great things about the work done by Dennis King at MC79hockey is the sheer amount of scoring chance information available to Oilers' fans. I've torn it apart, put it back together and posted the raw numbers and combinations in nearly every way imaginable. After the jump is the set of combined numbers from the last two seasons.

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; CH% = scoring chance percentage; CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; CF/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; DIFF/15 = scoring chance differential per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice;

*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table. Initial sort is CD/15.

#	Player	TCF	TCA	CH%	CF/15	CA/15	CD/15
32	Ryan Stone	73	61	0.545	5.010	4.186	0.823
4	Taylor Hall	349	321	0.521	5.344	4.916	0.429
27	Dustin Penner	608	576	0.514	4.936	4.677	0.260
12	Robert Nilsson	195	189	0.508	4.670	4.527	0.144
14	Jordan Eberle	309	303	0.505	4.764	4.672	0.093
56	Teemu Hartikainen	40	39	0.506	3.470	3.383	0.087
57	Colin McDonald	3	3	0.500	3.362	3.362	0.000
83	Ales Hemsky	308	310	0.498	4.824	4.855	-0.031
91	Mike Comrie	116	124	0.483	4.508	4.819	-0.311
12	Alexandre Giroux	20	22	0.476	3.295	3.625	-0.330
89	Sam Gagner	538	590	0.477	4.557	4.997	-0.440
54	Chris VandeVelde	44	49	0.473	3.965	4.416	-0.451
16	Ryan Potulny	188	209	0.474	4.474	4.973	-0.500
13	Andrew Cogliano	538	622	0.464	4.147	4.794	-0.647
10	Shawn Horcoff	459	536	0.461	4.319	5.044	-0.725
23	Linus Omark	153	185	0.453	3.580	4.329	-0.749
	Fwd Average			0.455	3.982	4.769	-0.788
91	Magnus Paajarvi	265	322	0.451	3.750	4.557	-0.807
67	Gilbert Brule	335	409	0.450	4.059	4.956	-0.897
85	Liam Reddox	130	174	0.428	3.268	4.374	-1.106
46	Zack Stortini	160	219	0.422	3.054	4.181	-1.126
22	Jean-Francois Jacques	182	249	0.422	3.309	4.528	-1.218
19	Patrick O`Sullivan	224	291	0.435	4.113	5.344	-1.230
16	Colin Fraser	90	135	0.400	2.705	4.057	-1.352
28	Ryan Jones	164	274	0.374	2.745	4.586	-1.841
78	Marc-Antoine Pouliot	68	106	0.391	3.456	5.388	-1.932
42	Ryan O`Marra	33	68	0.327	2.120	4.369	-2.249
18	Ethan Moreau	175	305	0.365	3.347	5.834	-2.486
34	Fernando Pisani	74	141	0.344	2.902	5.529	-2.627
33	Steve MacIntyre	14	41	0.255	1.676	4.908	-3.232
36	Charles Linglet	1	5	0.167	1.389	6.944	-5.556
39	Chris Minard	6	22	0.214	2.086	7.648	-5.562

Based on the work I've done with the Florida Panthers scoring chances and the work I've seen elsewhere, and all things being equal (zonestart, qualcomp, etc.) I believe that a chance percentage of 45% is replacement-level. I believe it could be a bit higher (somewhere just north of 46%), but another season of data will help to reach stronger conclusions and 45% is a safe bet thus far. If 45% is indeed replacement level, it's a bit of a concern that the Oilers' forwards have averaged 45% over the last two seasons. It's worth pointing out, however, that all things haven't been equal for the Oilers over the last two seasons. First, neither Pat Quinn nor Tom Renney saw fit to match lines at any point during their tenure. Second, injuries have ravaged the Oilers over the last two seasons and forced players into roles they were not ready for or capable of handling.

Most of the players at the top of the list and most of the players at the bottom of the list are long gone, leaving a significant portion of the middle of the list, mostly a list of players who have not had much success by the numbers, underlying stats or traditional stats.

*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table. Initial sort is CD/15.

#	Player	TSC	TSCA	CH%	CF/15	CA/15	CD/15
58	Jeff Petry	162	143	0.531	4.270	3.769	0.501
71	Lubomir Visnovsky	296	288	0.507	4.847	4.716	0.131
77	Tom Gilbert	716	763	0.484	4.250	4.529	-0.279
44	Sheldon Souray	173	187	0.481	4.819	5.209	-0.390
6	Ryan Whitney	245	271	0.475	4.351	4.812	-0.462
5	Ladislav Smid	570	635	0.473	4.191	4.669	-0.478
	Def Average			0.463	4.205	4.867	-0.662
37	Denis Grebeshkov	205	244	0.457	4.326	5.149	-0.823
2	Jim Vandermeer	246	299	0.451	3.955	4.807	-0.852
26	Kurtis Foster	239	301	0.443	3.667	4.619	-0.951
24	Steve Staios	161	203	0.442	4.478	5.646	-1.168
43	Jason Strudwick	347	472	0.424	3.660	4.979	-1.319
49	Theo Peckham	318	440	0.420	3.616	5.004	-1.387
45	Shawn Belle	13	21	0.382	2.658	4.294	-1.636
48	Alex Plante	15	26	0.366	2.766	4.794	-2.028
41	Taylor Chorney	151	244	0.382	3.348	5.411	-2.062
2	Aaron Johnson	53	82	0.393	3.787	5.859	-2.072
37	Richard Petiot	6	10	0.375	3.763	6.271	-2.508
8	Dean Arsene	15	34	0.306	2.697	6.113	-3.416
58	Johan Motin	1	9	0.100	1.148	10.332	-9.184

The defense is only slightly better, but at least they've hung on to four of the six above average defenseman, unlike the forwards who were turned out. Even more concerning with the defense is the two men slotted for regular duty next season, Kurtis Foster and Theo Peckham, have performed below replacement levels over parts of last two seasons.

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Even more concerning with the defense is the two men slotted for regular duty next season, Kurtis Foster and Theo Peckham, have performed below replacement levels over parts of last two seasons.

Write this before the blockbuster with Anaheim?

by Woodguy on Jul 5, 2011 8:17 AM MDT reply actions

Indeed. It’s been in the queue for over a week.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 5, 2011 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions

The fun question is – will Sutton be above or below 46%?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 5, 2011 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions

If the question is fun, the answer sure isn’t.

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 5, 2011 10:21 AM MDT up reply actions 2 recs

Are questions with obvious answers fun?

Actually he as 0 +/- per 60 in his 30 games last year playing the dregs with the dregs, so he might be north of .450.

Be interesting to see how many games he plays before hitting the IR.

by Woodguy on Jul 5, 2011 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions

i must say i was very happy when the trade happened. But with time i am growing more and more cautious. Sutton might not be even as good as Vandermeer or maybe just something similar.
Plus I really really hope Petry makes the team over Sutton/Peckham

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions

Most of the players at the top of the list and most of the players at the bottom of the list are long gone, leaving a significant portion of the middle of the list, mostly a list of players who have not had much success by the numbers, underlying stats or traditional stats.

I’ll take some solace from the fact that nine of the thirteen guys still with the organization are above the team’s forward average, and that two of the four who are below aren’t likely to play much with the Oilers next season (Brule and O’Marra).

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 5, 2011 10:23 AM MDT reply actions

One of the others below the cutoff is Paajarvi who is there thanks in large part to his terrible start. His numbers after game 20 were near .500.

That of course leaves Jones. No spin available for that one.

Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and a frequenter of the time waster that is Twitter.

by ryanbatty on Jul 5, 2011 11:14 AM MDT up reply actions

as a 4th liner he will be ok. Creating chaos hustling and killing penalties.
I must say that Ryan Smyth bullying his way onto the Oilers roster really hurt Jones and his expected ice time. Which is defintely good for the team.
So if Jones is killing penalties and playing against 4th liners, its all good. But he is pretty expensive 4th liner

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions

resigning Omarra was a curious move. I think Lander is above him as a prospect and CVV looked better in his stint

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions

Nice post Derek. We’ve talked about this before, but do you have these numbers for tied and within a goal?

Also is there anywhere you know of that reports team TOI broken down by score situation?

by RiversQ on Jul 5, 2011 11:24 AM MDT via mobile reply actions

This link should help you Rivers. Very useful.

Flames Nation
The Score

by Kent Wilson on Jul 5, 2011 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions

who is the creator of this site?

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions

Thanks for the link Kent.

This guy’s previous site was incredibly good in terms of sorting info based on line mates.

I hope his new site is as good.

by Woodguy on Jul 5, 2011 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions

This David guy, what site did he have before?

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 1:15 PM MDT up reply actions

It was just the same url, stats.hockeyanalysis.com

It has all the scoring rates (for and against) for every player in the NHL with every line mate.

Was excellent for seeing who was driving the bus.

by Woodguy on Jul 5, 2011 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions

I hope to get this info (with linemates, against opponent info) up again this summer. Just gotta get the time to get it done.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HockeyAnalysis.com - Taking a Deeper Look at the World of Hockey

by HockeyAnalysis on Jul 5, 2011 10:49 PM MDT up reply actions

Nice post Derek. We’ve talked about this before, but do you have these numbers for tied and within a goal?

I forgot I had all of that data

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 5, 2011 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions

Oh me oh my. We’ve got some things to look forward to!

The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 5, 2011 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions

2nd’d

Please post the info, would love to see it.

by Woodguy on Jul 5, 2011 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions

I liked Ryan Stone

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 12:35 PM MDT reply actions

Take that Ryan Whitney lovers.
Tom Gilbert is better ha!

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 5, 2011 12:36 PM MDT reply actions

I’ve torn it apart, put it back together

with a couple of pieces in wroooong! This is the “Quote Random Blue Rodeo Lyrics” thread, right?

Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 5, 2011 1:53 PM MDT reply actions

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