Updated Oilers Roster, Depth Chart, Projected Lines & Remaining Needs
by Derek Zona on Jul 3, 2011 6:30 AM MDT
in Analysis
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PrintThe Oilers leapt into free agency with an eye for pugnacity and delivered in a big way. Though Ben Eager, Darcy Hordichuk and Andy Sutton will strain the Oilers already strained penalty kill, Steve Tambellini talked for a couple of weeks about getting tougher in the off-season. I looked at the what was lacking in the Oilers lineup as free agency approached, and it's worthwhile to review the depth chart after Tambellini's big day.
Forwards
| Smyth |
- | Gagner | - | Hemsky |
| Hall | - | Horcoff | - | Eberle |
| Paajarvi | - | Belanger |
- | Omark |
| Eager | - | - | Jones |
Others: Cogliano, Brule, Hordichuk
A tough minutes left wing to play with Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky was second on the list of needs and Tambellini filled that spot with Ryan Smyth. If Tom Renney finally decides to match lines, Smyth - Gagner - Hemsky should provide plenty of cover for Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle playing with Shawn Horcoff. If Hall and Eberle take a step forward, there's a very good chance the Hall - Horcoff - Eberle line will beat second minutes. Eric Belanger gives the Oilers something they've needed since Moses wandered the Earth, a capable veteran center who can win faceoffs and manage his own zone. Dropping him between Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark is perfect for a couple of possession wingers who struggle in the defensive end.
The fourth line is less-settled. Ben Eager on the left wing will be a regular and Ryan Jones on the right isn't going anywhere. Andrew Cogliano is due a raise and if Smid's contract is an indication, he should slot in around $1.75 million this season. If that's the case, the Oilers' bottom line is one of the most expensive in the league, especially when factoring in the 13th forward, Gilbert Brule and his $1.85 million deal. The Oilers are better off using Brule and Chris Vande Velde if Brule can't go, in the bottom line center role. Darcy Hordichuk couldn't stay in the Panthers lineup last season and shouldn't stay in the Oilers' lineup. With Eager and Peckham already on the ice, there's no need for a full-time goon. He should spot dress.
Left to do: Cogliano has no role and has Ryan Nugent-Hopkins breathing down his neck. The Belanger signing allows Tambellini to keep Nugent-Hopkins in Red Deer without burning a year of his ELC. With the above lineup, Tambellini is free to move Cogliano in a trade for defensive help.
Needs: Health. If the above group can stay healthy through the year, they should be okay at even strength and improved on the penalty kill. Depth is still a concern, Hordichuk is probably the worst 13th forward in the West, so it makes sense to either bring Vande Velde along or sign a veteran forward for $750k or so and push Hordichuk down the depth chart a slot.
Targets: Chris Vande Velde development, Mike Grier, Marek Svatos, Nigel Dawes
Defensemen
| Smid | - | Gilbert |
| Whitney | - | |
| Barker | - | Peckham |
Others: Sutton, Petry
In his comparison of the Oilers to the Bruins, Jonathan Willis concluded, "...Bottom line: The Oilers need at least one and possibly two top-end defensemen before they can compare favourably to Boston."
The Oilers still need at least one top four defenseman, preferably a penalty killer before they can compete with the middle third of the conference on a nightly basis. Cam Barker has struggled with bottom pairing minutes for the last three years and should not be asked to play anything but bottom minutes and contribute on the power play. With Ladislav Smid's new contract and Steve Tambellini's press conference comments, it's obvious that Smid will take on a top four role.
Andy Sutton is the Oilers' version of the veteran depth defenseman they needed going into free agency, but Sutton is 36 years old and couldn't stay in the Ducks' lineup last season, a lineup that had one of the worst defenses in the league. Slotting him in to replace Jason Strudwick is ideal - keep him on the bench and hope that health allows Renney to dress him for only 35 games.
Left to do: General managers were all over defenseman on July 1st like fat men on an all-you-can-eat buffet. The pickings are slim in unrestricted free agency, but old rugged veterans are still out there. Radek Martinek, if healthy, is an option, though I don't know if he can handle top minutes at this point. With Cogliano available for a trade, could Tambellini move him for a guy like Colin White from the Devils?
Needs: Still need a top-pairing, tough minutes defenseman who can be a pack mule on the power play, or a reasonable facsimile of one. Nick Schultz remains the best possible target under any scenario, but the Wild want an NHL defenseman back. Would Cogliano and Peckham be enough to get Schultz out of Minnesota? What about Andrej Sekera in Buffalo? Darcy Regier has created a really crowded situation in Buffalo with three RFA's to be signed and very little cap space. Sekera played the toughs last year and he's only 25 years old. If the Oilers could get him out of Buffalo with some combination of Cogliano, Peckham and picks or prospects, he could play top line minutes, though he's also a left defender. I'd be extremely happy with a Sekera-Gilbert top pairing. Scott has mentioned Roman Polak in St. Louis as well.
Targets: Trade for Nick Schultz, Colin White, Andrej Sekera, Roman Polak / Radek Martinek, Karlis Skrastins
Goaltenders
| Dubnyk |
Nothing has changed here. The Oilers need a veteran to platoon with Dubnyk or a legitimate NHL goaltender. Either way, it allows them to bury Nikolai Khabibulin in the AHL to back up Olivier Roy for the next two seasons.
Needs: Veteran goaltender to platoon with unproven starter.
Targets: Ray Emery is still available and if his medical records check out after due diligence, he would be ideal on a one-year deal.
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This could be a playoff team
… if we had playoff calibre goaltending.
Washington’s signing of Vokoun was staggeringly genius. My guess is that they’ll go with a 3-man carousel through the early part of the season, then trade either Holtby or Neuvirth for depth around Christmas.
Given that we can take the jackass crown off Tambellini for the time being, my assumption is that he pursues a young G from Washington, hopefully for something less valuable than our 1st rd pick in 2012.
The Vokoun signing was flat out depressing from my perspective. Jose Theodore is getting paid more than he is to play in Florida… it is ridiculous. Plus, Varlamov is making more than him. Also, it buries another Czech goalie on the bench (Neuvirth) who had a very good season and deserved a shot at starter. Real lousy signing from a Czech perspective.
I’m pretty sure that Vokoun is going to be the starter there, and the team is great, so this could work out really well for him.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 3, 2011 9:01 AM MDT up reply actions
I thought it was particularly brilliant on Vokoun’s part. Here’s a guy that has been solid for years, on terrible teams. Analysts have been saying he isn’t worth big money because he has never succeeded in the playoffs, but in my opinion that ignores his olympic bronze medal and two golds at the world championships.
This gives Vokoun the opportunity to join a winner, and if he acquits himself well his big payday will come next year.
Vokoun - Neuvirth - Holtby
Vokoun (and/or his agent) misread the market.
They were left scrambling for employment.
Holtby will NOT play in the NHL next year. He needs the starts in the A.
So, its Vokoun and Neuvirth. Supposedly 1 and 1A, but looks like Vokoun will get the majority of the starts and Neuvy will get some tutelage before taking over f/t next season (then, they bring Holtby up) and next year Vokoun won’t be so slow to find a starting gig.
I don’t think he misread the market at all.
I think he’s taking a shot at the cup.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Perhaps after realizing a major payday wasn’t coming without some playoff success. Call me Mr Cynic…
Vokoun hit the market with the Lightning and Flyers, the two successful teams looking for goalies, no longer needing one. His options were Florida, who made him offers that he turned down, Colorado, and whoever else might be willing to offer him a contract. Next summer, the Lightning are probably back in the mix, as are New Jersey and Nashville (and Washington, potentially).
I suppose if Tomas Vokoun’s name were Tommy Winters from Sudbury, Ont., this move wouldn’t be questioned.
Derek – no lover for Lander? I’m surprised you see CVV as above Lander in the depth chart. I could see CVV back OC with Lander as competing for that 4C/13th forward role on the oil. Perhaps you feel that Lander would gain more from big minutes in the AHL?
He’s going to need a season to adjust to the game. Vandevelde’s faceoff skills are going to matter in the end
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Also competing for spots will be the two fins we signed last month, one of whom I believe is a candidate for the 4C role.
It is a relief to see that we have a decent lineup without Hartikainen, meaning when a winger goes down to injury we’ve got a solid prospect who is ready to play at the NHL level.
On defence, Petry needs to be part of the starting six, even if he is bottom pairing with Peckam. He has played very well for us, and earned his place on the roster last year. Moving him down to the AHL would be a real injustice, he’s been better at the NHL level than half of the guys on our roster.
Line Matching
I’m excited that Renney now has the forward depth to line match. Now when Vigneault trots out the Sedin twins late in a game Renney can respond with Smyth-Belanger-Hemsky.
by melancholyculkin on Jul 3, 2011 11:52 AM MDT reply actions
I suspect the key is that he didn’t want to be a backup. Detroit has James Howard slotted in as the starter and is looking for a backup goaltender. With Washington, Vokoun has a great chance to be a starter, get into the playoffs, and have some real success on a stronger team offensively than he has ever played on.
I can’t wait to see how he does. I think he’ll be amazing.
Random Ramblings from a Somewhat Scattered Mind
"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time." --Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
It’s amazing. All those moves and the Oilers aren’t much better. Smyth was a fantastic acquisition but really just replaces Penner from last year’s lineup.
The defense is still terrible. If they added a dman then Smid/Peckham on the third pairing would be nice, but would mean Sutton and Barker are pointless. Hordichuk is a joke and Eager is a fourth liner and being better than Jacques doesn’t mean a lot.
Basically Belanger is the only legitimate addition. This team was full value for -72 last year (actually I’d argue they might have been worse than that) and I don’t think the 3rd line centre solves that.
by RiversQ on Jul 3, 2011 1:21 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
Without another top-pairing D and a G, this is a lottery team.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t think so, there is a chance, but Dubnyk is a question mark and he could impress, if the injury bug stays away I would say that this is not a lottery team. Petry could be that D, we could be a lottery team but I highly doubt it, Petry steps up and Dubnyk fairs better then Khabbi then Oilers are looking good.
I’m pretty much happy with the forwards situation at this point. All three of the top lines listed look strong enough to allow the team to compete in the middle of the standings, and while Eager & Jones are probably overpaid, they should be fine as fourth-liners. Hordichuk is a waste of a roster spot, but realistically is going to be slotted as a 14th forward.
The 4C position is still a question. Brule or VandeVelde are probably the best options to start the season, as I don’t think RNH has any chance to make the team at the start of the year. He’s not ready for a first-line, tough-minutes role paired along with Smyth and Hemsky; a line that consisted of Nugent-Hopkins plus any two of HOPE would be eaten alive; and he’s a waste at the 4C position.
I think pretty much everyone agrees that Cogliano is redundant in this lineup, especially at anything over a million dollars. Between Cogliano & Gagner, I’d take Gagner any day of the week.
Defensively, the team is still weak but I like Petry’s potential. He played well last year and I’d like to see him in a top-four role with Whitney. He’s probably not ready for it yet, but you can say that about several players on this team and I think he’s got a good chance of growing into his role as the year progresses.
If we could trade for a seasoned defender, I’d be interested, but I don’t think it makes sense to trade away Peckham, who had a good season last year and has a decent upside. I don’t think there’s much chance of this team seriously contending for a Stanley Cup in 2011-12, and probably not 2012-13 either. Based on that, I’d be inclined to go with the seven defensemen we have and see how things look in a year’s time.
Goaltending is the elephant in the room, of course. I think the Oilers are significantly improved on offense and moderately improved on defense, but there’s just no way we can even compete for an eighth seed with a Khabibulin/Dubnyk tandem. Khabibulin’s weaknesses are well-established, and as much as I like Dubnyk, he shouldn’t be a starting goaltender yet; I’d like to see him have another year as backup.
Ray Emery is as good a suggestion as any, but unfortunately I seriously doubt that Oilers management is prepared to cut their losses on Khabibulin, so I fully expect he’ll be the starting goalie in October. The best we can hope for is that he’ll be on a short leash this year.
Significantly improved on offense? How?
Smyth for Penner is probably a wash. Maybe a little improvement on special teams.
Belanger is a definite improvement. All the other moves are nearly insignificant.
I’m not sure the defense is really better either.
by RiversQ on Jul 3, 2011 8:39 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I was comparing the Oilers before July 1 to the Oilers today, so I didn’t take either Penner’s departure or Smyth’s arrival into account. I’d agree that the two players are fairly even.
Before July 1, here were the bottom two lines (best guess to start next season):
Paajarvi – Cogliano – Omark
Jacques – Fraser – Jones
Here are the bottom two lines now (changes in bold):
Paajarvi – Belanger – Omark
Eager – Cogliano – Jones
As you say, Belanger is a clear improvement. Also, if Cogliano is still on the team next year, he’ll be playing fourth-line minutes and won’t have to win many faceoffs. That’s an improvement.
I’d also argue that Ben Eager is a big improvement. As Bruce has pointed out in another thread, Eager is a goon but is at least one who is able to play hockey as well as hit people. He went 7-10-17 in G/A/P over 68 games last year, as compared to 4-1-5 in 51 games (Jacques) or 0-4-4 in 32 games (Stortini). No matter which one we view him as replacing, he’s pretty clearly an upgrade.
Getting rid of Jacques is addition by subtraction. I’m not sure I’d go that far with Fraser, but he added nothing to the team. I agree that replacing MacIntyre with Hordichuk is insignificant, but there’s no way it’s a downgrade.
All in all, I’d say the offense has been significantly improved.
Defensively, we got rid of our three worst defensemen from last year. I don’t know if Barker & Sutton will be any great shakes, but that’s good enough for a tentative pass from me. I agree that defense is still a weakness for the team.
. I don’t know if Barker & Sutton will be any great shakes, but that’s good enough for a tentative pass from me
So, essentially you’re passing them because they made changes, even if they aren’t good?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The defense is worse. They need to get help, but they aren’t going to. They’ll head into the season with a weak team again, declare the off-season a success again.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So you are against the moves? What would you have wanted? How is their D worse? I understand the advanced stats part if that’s what you are going with, Whitney back already makes it better, and no strudwick makes it better.
They have Whitney and Gilbert (and arguably Smid) who have shown that they can play in the top 4.
They also have Peckham, Petry, Sutton and Barker who have alternated from looking like they can play bottom pairing successfully to struggling to do so.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I’m happy so far with free agency, although I am really hoping we bring in another D and I’m assuming that’s going to be the top priority for the time being, especially considering that we have 15 forwards signed (once cogs signs).
Petry right now seems to be the number one option to fill the hole but I would prefer Petry to be in OKC getting 25 minutes a night with a solid veteran defensive guy being brought in. There are still some defenders available in free agency:
Babchuk, Obrien, Sopel, McCabe, Hannan.
So yea for me Barker needs an opportunity to play with a good partner with good minutes, Whitney made Strudwick and Vandemeer look good at times last season so I think having a Whitney – Barker second pairing could be beneficial.
Smid – Gilbert
Whitney – Barker
Petry – Peckham
Sutton
Could that work? try to bring in a veteran to replace Petry.
I would like to see them get Hannan if they could do so on a 2 or 3 year deal. But they won’t unless Hannan is left without a dance partner and more likely crazy-man Tallon will throw money at him.
That said, unless there is a significant trade, I think Petry gets the spot next to Whitney and we are looking at a 24-26th place finish if Dubnyk is the starter. 26-28 if its Khabby.
Dubnyk is enough goalie for us right now. He played well and will only get better.
I wish Barker the best of health, and if he plays decently it will be a success all around.
ST I am sure is happy with his moves so far. His team got a heck of a lot tougher without getting any better. Belanger will fill in for Horcoff when he goes down, and there is the appearance not doing a purposeful tank.
He can keep goons off his rookies, was “active” which will get a bunch of people off his back.
I don’t think there is no desire to turn the corner yet, with a crappy team that can’t contend and a deep draft coming up. And there’s the arena thing – Katz seems behind the plan which sadly means “6” years. The question is starting when? Last year, this year, when the arena’s done?
When Lowe floated that timeline he certainly implied that the Taylor Hall draft marked the beginning of Year One, and he said that the club wanted to be competing for the Cup sometime between Year Four and Year Six.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 4, 2011 3:29 PM MDT up reply actions
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