Brad Richards Is A Great Comparable For Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; It's Just That... Sean Couturier Is Better

by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 11:30 AM MDT in Analysis

In an effort to figure out a way around Scott's comparables list for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, commenters in three different commonly-traveled sites have determined that Brad Richards is, in fact, the best comparable for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins based on the need for a better class of comparable player. They've used era effects and team effects and nailed their man because rather than starting out with a list of parameters, and working through that criteria, they started with a list of targets and worked backwards to get to that target.

So if Brad Richards is such a great comparable for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, we should probably compare Sean Couturier to Brad Richards and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, given that Couturier posted better per game numbers than Nugent-Hopkins in 2010-11.

First up, let's look at their raw numbers.

	GP	G	A	P	G/G	P/G
Brad Richards	68	33	82	115	0.485	1.691
Sean Couturier	58	36	60	96	0.621	1.655
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	69	31	75	106	0.449	1.536

Well, of course Nugent-Hopkins' numbers are going to be suppressed; he plays in the always-difficult WHL. We need to normalize these numbers for league effects and then normalize for era effects. Couturier plays in that crazy, wide-open, no-one-cares-about-defense QMJHL and Richards played in the days where goaltenders from the Q were drafted no matter what they did, so scoring was out of control.

League & Era Effects		League G/G
Brad Richards		7.4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins		6.7
Sean Couturier		6.7

Hm, that's odd. That Richards' thing works out in favor of Nugent-Hopkins, but that darned Couturier is still hanging around. Oh! Oh! I know! Red Deer was a defense-first, defense-always team and their offense took a huge hit because of that. If we compare him to those silly QMJHL offense-only kids, this will work out.

Team Effects		Team G/G
Brad Richards		4.229
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins		3.722
Sean Couturier		3.691

Hm. You mean Couturier's team wasn't a run-it-up team? Well, this isn't taking into account Nugent-Hopkins' playmaking ability. Figure out the % of offense and we're there.

% of offense
Sean Couturier		0.448
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins		0.413
Brad Richards		0.400

Oh.

See, the problem here is that you need to combine all of this to show exactly how Nugent-Hopkins is comparable to Brad Richards.

Normalized for League and Team
	G	G	A	P	G/G	P/G
Sean Couturier	58	41	68	109	0.703	1.874
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	69	35	84	119	0.504	1.725
Brad Richards	68	30	73	103	0.434	1.513

Oh. Well, this doesn't take into account Nugent-Hopkins' vision. I'll be right back with a different player that's better suited to what I believe.

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Comments

Fortunately junior performance is not a perfect predictor of an NHL career, or NHL scouts would be vast banks of computertrons.

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by mindmasher on Jul 29, 2011 11:36 AM MDT reply actions 3 recs

That’s clearly the message you should take away from this post.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions

that, and the fact that we should have taken Couturier

by Bananahammer on Jul 29, 2011 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions

I preferred Larsson :)

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 11:59 AM MDT up reply actions

rofl

Success is not a goal..its a byproduct

by SumOil on Jul 29, 2011 12:22 PM MDT up reply actions

You and me both. Landeskog 2nd overall? Really Colorado? Really?

Worst part is that NJ managed to snag Larsson at 4th. Also Winnipeg went a little nuts there and allowed Boston to snag Hamilton at 9th and of course Philly gets Couturier.

by proxy on Jul 29, 2011 4:38 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

What the crap was Winnipeg thinking? I still don’t get that.

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by Doogie2K on Jul 29, 2011 5:06 PM MDT up reply actions

Follow his coaching lineage.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 6:21 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Right. I forgot about that. Still, you’d think you could trade for a pick in the teens and he’d still be there.

by Doogie2K on Jul 30, 2011 7:31 PM MDT up reply actions

Gabe’s been banging away at the pick and he’s right. If you think he’s that great, just slide back 5 spots and pick up anything offered as compensation.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 30, 2011 8:13 PM MDT up reply actions

I’d be happier.

Oilers fan base has been bitching that the Oilers don’t have that big #1 C who can play in all situations and is a goal scorer.

Well here he was and we went and took a guy who scored in just 2 out of 25 games and didn’t score a goal in 15 straight games… in junior.

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by dawgbone98 on Jul 29, 2011 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions

All I’m saying is that while they are indicators of possible future performance, scouts also look at features of players that really do make up a big part of future NHL performance.

The idea that certain abilities transfer better to the NHL level is not a new concept. Some of Couturier’s flaws include the fact that he’s not an elite skater and RNH has a very dynamic wheelbase.

I mean really Derek if it was such a huge fuck up of a pick, why did Couturier fall so far in the draft? i would hope that NHL scouts run comps and combine it with detailed qualitative information that has proven to be reliable in some way before. This is the part of the picture that virtually everyone posting on CnB do not have access to.

I think RNH is a fine pick. He should be a dynamic presence and I’d say it’s a good bet that even if Couturier is a better player RNH can still give the Oilers exactly what they need.

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by mindmasher on Jul 29, 2011 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions

The article isn’t about Hopkins vs. Couturier, it’s about running comps to fit your preconceptions.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions

That’s interesting, because you compared and contrasted RNH and Couturier throughout the whole article, and your title says ‘Brad Richards Is A Great Comparable For Ryan Nugent-Hopkins; It’s Just That… Sean Couturier Is Better’

‘Better’ implying the article would explain that statement.

Ultimately my point is that regardless of whether comps fit preconceptions (there’s no proof he had any before he started the exercise), it is all very imperfect anyways.

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by mindmasher on Jul 29, 2011 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions

He IS a better comp, which was clearly spelled out in the article.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions

I’m pretty sure scouts don’t run comps, actually. That’s not exactly part of their job description. They’re there to eat shitty arena hot dogs and try to figure out which 17-year-old kid is going to be a useful NHLer in five to seven years by sight.

by Doogie2K on Jul 29, 2011 5:08 PM MDT up reply actions

I’d say that the scouts in charge of picks probably have access to some smart minds who do a little number crunching. Certainly I expect there will be a lot more of this moving forward — even if it’s not widespread right now.

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by mindmasher on Jul 30, 2011 10:51 AM MDT up reply actions

I’d be surprised if anyone other than the head scout saw numbers like that in any organization, TBH.

by Doogie2K on Jul 30, 2011 7:31 PM MDT up reply actions

I’d say that the scouts in charge of picks probably have access to some smart minds who do a little number crunching. Certainly I expect there will be a lot more of this moving forward — even if it’s not widespread right now.

Some orgs are doing a ton of it. Some are doing absolutely none of it.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 30, 2011 8:14 PM MDT up reply actions

I had one guy on BSB insisting that based on scouts he’s talked to around the league, it’s 98% seen it good, 2% stats.

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by George E. Ays on Jul 30, 2011 10:10 PM MDT up reply actions

That’s much more like what I’d expect.

by Doogie2K on Jul 31, 2011 7:57 AM MDT up reply actions

Don’t really know what your problem is with the comps. IMO era effects are incredibly important to take into consideration when doing these. I fully admitted that the comps I posted were not a representative sample, and the fact that Sean Couturier is statistically better is irrelevant to doing RNH comps.

by shoc_doc on Jul 29, 2011 11:54 AM MDT reply actions

I have no problems with comps. I run them all of the time.

I have a problem with doing comps to get a preferred answer, then ignoring the results when they don’t turn out. Or ignoring the non-preferred answers like Couturier.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions

I would say the “intangable” is that Nuge is from Red Deer and hopefully will
want “to die for” an Alberta based team. If pro hockey players do that anymore.

by Oiltimer on Jul 29, 2011 12:44 PM MDT reply actions

He’s from Burnaby. He’s in Red Deer because he was drafted by the Rebels, not because he’s a true-blue Alberta boy.

by despisethesun on Jul 29, 2011 11:59 PM MDT up reply actions

I'm getting very excited

Could you do up some comparables – Nuge to Gretzky?

Thanks

by Mr DeBakey on Jul 29, 2011 12:59 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs

FLAGGED

for being a BIG MEAN STUPID JERK

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by birky on Jul 29, 2011 1:28 PM MDT reply actions

With Nugent Hopkins, scouts thought his skills would better translate in the NHL than Coutuier (skating in particular), despite better production. Whoever turns out better should help answer whether it’s better to take the best offensive player, or the player who the ‘experts’ believe will be the best player in the future.

by Oiltank on Jul 29, 2011 1:47 PM MDT via mobile reply actions

The article isn’t about Hopkins vs. Couturier, it’s about running comps to fit your preconceptions.

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by Derek Zona on Jul 29, 2011 1:56 PM MDT up reply actions

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