Martin Marincin - #11 In the Oilers Top 25 Under 25
by Derek Zona on Jul 25, 2011 3:35 PM MDT
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"Wicked shot, good passer, really nice offensive instincts. He's not afraid of contact, and wins puck battles consistently. Enormous wingspan and uses it in both zones, especially adept at holding the puck in. He needs to add 25 pounds to play at the next level. Isn't a true physical force, and doesn't tend to initiate contact, but will bump along the walls. Big feet sometimes get in the way of his stride, needs to grow his movements into his body. Needs to be more consistent in his own end, gets lost away from the net on defense. Doesn't always have his head on a swivel in his own end."
--A WHL Scout's April take on Martin Marincin
At 6'4" ~190 lbs, with a goal-scorer's shot and decent skating ability, Martin Marincin has a chance to be an impact defender in the NHL. He's raw, gangly and awkward at times so he's not, by any means, a sure thing yet, but he's got a variety of skills that make him one of the most intriguing prospects in the organization.
After an enormous 11 spot leap in our winter Top 25 Under 25, Martin Marincin falls 3 places to #11 overall. The reason for Marincin's yo-yo up and down the rankings? Bruce McCurdy. When Bruce moved Marincin up 15 spots (to #5 overall) over the winter and Jonathan moved him up 16, the two of them accounted for the majority of his 11 spot jump. This time around Bruce saw fit to drop the young defender five spots (to #10 overall), while Scott dropped him 3 places to #15.
Marincin isn't a shutdown defender or big hitter, though his hit on Jason Zucker at the World Junior Championships shows he's got a bit of a dirty side to his game:
It's his game with the puck that will propel him to the NHL. Marincin's offensive numbers in his 18-year-old season compare extremely well to other WHL defenders taken in the 2nd round over the last five years:
| GP | G | A | P | P/G | % Off | |
| Jonathon Blum | 64 | 18 | 45 | 63 | 0.984 | 25.40% |
| Martin Marincin | 67 | 14 | 42 | 56 | 0.836 | 22.05% |
| Alex Petrovic | 69 | 7 | 50 | 57 | 0.826 | 21.51% |
| Ty Wishart | 62 | 11 | 38 | 49 | 0.790 | 22.27% |
| Tyler Myers | 58 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 0.724 | 15.85% |
| Thomas Hickey | 63 | 11 | 34 | 45 | 0.714 | 18.83% |
| Travis Hamonic | 57 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 0.702 | 20.41% |
| Colby Robak | 65 | 13 | 29 | 42 | 0.646 | 14.48% |
| Mark Pysyk | 63 | 6 | 34 | 40 | 0.635 | 16.19% |
| Colten Teubert | 60 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 0.617 | 16.37% |
| Karl Alzner | 60 | 7 | 29 | 36 | 0.600 | 14.06% |
| Brandon Davidson | 59 | 1 | 33 | 34 | 0.576 | 14.11% |
| Jared Cowen | 59 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 0.508 | 12.55% |
| Dylan McIlrath | 62 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 0.371 | 9.62% |
| Taylor Ellington | 48 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 0.292 | 6.97% |
| Alex Plante | 36 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.056 | 0.78% |
He's second to only Jonathon Blum in points per game and third to Blum and Ty Wishart in % of team offense. Marincin started the season on fire, and through November, his NHLE was 27, in the range of a number of forwards in the Oilers' system. But after that, his game began to fall off. The table below shows his incremental month-end NHLE as the season progressed:
| NHLE | |
| October | 27 |
| November | 27 |
| December | 25 |
| January | 23 |
| February | 21 |
| March | 20 |
Perhaps it was the schedule and tougher physical competition that did him in. Marincin played 67 games for Prince George and another 2 games for Slovakia before being suspended at the World Juniors. He also had the travel and preparation for the WJC in addition to his normal regimen. Compare that to his 17-year old season when he played only 35 games for HK Orange in the Slovak Extraliga and another 12 games internationally and the possibility that workload was a factor becomes evident. A year of experience in the WHL combined with strength and conditioning training should help Marincin deal with the workload in the coming season.
Marincin possesses enormous size and talent. His skating could use some work, but he's a high-level player who, like most defensemen, needs some time to develop. If he continues to show the offensive acumen demonstrated in Prince George, he'll be a surefire NHL player.
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I guess Maracin is paying the price for fading at the end of the season, but I feel he is a little short-changed by a couple of the raters. 15th Ben and Scott? Really?? I think (hope) there’s more there. For me, his potential top end would see him higher up in the listings and I’m counting on a strong season from him this coming year now that’s he’s had longer to adjust to his gangly frame.
If you look at the historical rankings, Ben, Scott and myself have been relatively consistent in our thinking.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If you look at the historical rankings, Ben, Scott and myself have been relatively consistent in our thinking.
Marincin and Eberle are just about the only two guys I rank consistently.
Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 26, 2011 3:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Both Ben and I have Marincin behind Pitlick, Hamilton, and Martindale, and that represents most of the drop right there. As for the “why”, for me it’s about how little we really know about the player. I don’t think we can glean much from his performances pre-WHL, and last season he had a great first half, and a troubling second half. He’s got some good assets, so you can see why he might be tremendously successful, but I think that there’s a very wide range of outcomes with this player.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 25, 2011 10:40 PM MDT up reply actions
No doubt. His potential is best measured by a 16-11-12 ranking in the last three.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Great first half + troubling second half & you blame me for being erratic? He was erratic.
Besides RNH being drafted into the upper echelon of prospects, I had Petry, Lander, Hartikainen and Omark pass him, because all showed more in Feb-April than Marincin did.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Marincin, & likely jumped the gun last time around based on his great first half. He crashed pretty hard, and so did my ranking of him.
His potential is best measured by a 16-11-12 ranking in the last three.
Riiiiiiight. I’m glad one of us has gotten this down to a science.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 25, 2011 11:46 PM MDT up reply actions
because all showed more in Feb-April than Marincin did.
Was a strong Feb-Apr a central pillar of your system?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Things happened in that span that affected my opinion, if that’s what you mean.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 1:07 AM MDT up reply actions
Well last rankings happened before that, so any change in opinion has to be due to things that happened in those 2-3 months.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Yeah, that’s my point. Not quite sure what Derek is driving at.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Was his second half troubling because his point totals decreased or for some other reason?
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Both
First 40 GP: 11-32-43, +4
Last 27 GP: 3-10-13, -16
He fell off that 20-km high cliff on the Uranian moon Miranda.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions
That just says his +/- fell through the floor, which we know can happen from any number of reasons.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Ergo, his points total decreased and his +/- fell through the floor.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 1:44 PM MDT up reply actions
But his points decreasing was already covered, so the only thing left is his +/- falling through the floor, which is not necessarily a relflection on play, especially with possibly the worst (or 2nd worst) goaltending tandem in the WHL.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Well, you asked me if there was “some other reason” besides falling point totals I downgraded him, and I’m saying “yes”, his declining +/- was another red flag. He played in front of shitty goaltending all year, not just down the stretch. Much of his decline in +/- may have been due to falling offence; the difference between >1 PPG and <0.5 PPG is not insubstantial. So in part they are hand-in-glove, although presumably some of the “lost” points were on the PP which wouldn’t affect his +/-.
Looks to me that he just hit the wall. No surprise, playing a career high in games in an outpost like Prince George with its Brutal travel schedule.
I’m still bullish on this prospect, but he looks like a longer-term project to me now than he did in January.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions
That said, I am not too worried about his season. All the decline in scoring showed that he is not a superhuman prospect. Its not like it was just him who suffered a decline in scoring, almost the entire team crashed in the last third of the season. Furthermore it was just his 18 year old season, so he is still fairly young.
While they are all ‘in the range’; I would slot Marincin ahead of Pitlick. Even after the steep decline in scoring, IMO Marincin had a much better season than Pitlick did. Also having a healthy season sort of tips the scales in his favor for me.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
It will be interesting to see if he puts on any weight this summer. If he comes in 200 plus that should be real encouraging.
If he comes in at 200+ he’ll be bigger than the brutish Teubert. Give him one more year to reach that size.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If he’s ~190 now, wouldn’t a typical goal to be to put on about 10 pounds over the summer? They don’t gain much during the winter from what I understand, so this would be the time to bulk up.
He’s been eating lots of pasta and has thickened up from a sphagettini noodle to a full-fledged spaghetti.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Maybe he needs to go spend a summer with Gary Roberts.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Robertson's Rants - Exceedingly occasional, lengthy ramblings on hockey topics, hosted at Puck Podcast. And no, my name's not Doug.
What he needs to do is hit the gym and supplement his diet properly. 190 lbs at 6’ 4"? Don’t these kids have nutritionists and trainers? Lean mass can achieved very quickly if your nutrition program is being handled properly.
The Edmonton Oilers - All we do is win!!
When you’re playing 3 games a week and practicing 2-3 times a week it’s not so easy.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Which is why he should be putting on weight this summer!
by gcw_rocks on Jul 26, 2011 5:43 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Not everyone has the body type to be able to put on weight (at least the right kind of weight).
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
This guy’ll still be putting on the pounds when he’s 23.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 8:22 PM MDT up reply actions
I am pretty sure Tuebert would be putting on some weight too; esp when he himself emphasized on getting stronger
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Teubert’s gonna be a big boy.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 26, 2011 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
If I had to bet on one prospect to make an impact at the next level not named Nugent-Hopkins, I’d bet on Marincin (Lander seems like a safer bet, but I like Marincin’s upside a lot more). I think he’s got the tools to dominate, and I think that as he gets used to longer seasons, he’ll show more consistency. Mobile 6’4" offensive defender just sounds like a player that is going to make an impact. Might not see a NHL game until 2013-2014, but I think he makes it, and establishes himself as a top four defender within his first few seasons.
I’m suprised he’s this low. In my opinion, he had the best possible rookie year of North American hockey that anyone could have reasonably expected. With his size and skill, i think there is definitley the potential for him to be a #1 defenceman someday. He could be the complete package big, mean, mobile, big shot, and a great first pass. His struggles all seem pretty typical for a young defenceman, and with the higher level of opposition, and coaching, his development could very realisticly continue its rapid rate for some time.
Who, of the remaining under 25s, do you slot him above?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’d slot him at 7 directly after Hamilton, and the obvious guys. The players left on the C&B list i slot him above, with my ranking in parenthesis, are: (14) Lander, (12) Klefbom, (11) Hartikainen, (9) Omark, (8) Petry. Don’t know enough about Klefbom yet, with his limited playing time, and Lander has always seemed a bit overrated, although still good.
Given that Klefbom played in a far tougher league at a younger age, I have him above Marincin; However other than that I dont have much problems with your rating of Marincin
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Klefbom did play in a tougher league, but didn’t actually play much. I’d argue it might be tougher to play 20-25 minutes of tough competition in the CHL than, than half the games and half the minutes against weak competition in the SEL. So Klefbom although playing pro for 1 year still has alot to prove in my opinion. He could quite possibly be our clearcut best D prospect by this time next year, but so could Teubert, Blain, Marincin, Musil. Of all those players, the one player i think, that has shown the most ability to dominate is Marincin.
What’s the criteria here? By definition you are ranking guys who are contributing now or very soon against guys who have the potential to contribute later. If we are ranking based on ability to impact the Oilers success without weighting for immediacy, I would get a different answer than if I am focused on this season or even the next two. What about sure thing vs impact? How are you weighing those?
Marincin vs Petry highlights the importance of understanding the relative weighting of the criteria. Petry is a surer thing and will have more immediate impact. Marincin’s first half shows he has the potential to be a dominant player at the position (despite the [predictable] drop off in the second half) and therefore, in my view anyway, has more upside than Petry who I see as a 4-5 type d-man.
It seems to me some of you are weighing the “sure thing” (regardless of impact) over future upside, That certainly would change my rankings and would jump Petry and Hartikainen over Marincin because Marincin could still bust. However, if impact on the Oilers success over the next 3 to 5 years is weighted more heavily, I would put Marincin over Petry and Hartikainen because (a) the Oilers really need a 2-3 d-man prospect to step up and (b) he has the potential to fill that role. Hartikainen’s role is easily replaceable in the free agent market and I don’t see as much upside in Petry, and therefore they are less important to success over the next 3 to 5 years.
I am not one of those people who think Marincin would be a top pairing D man. Expecting that is setting up Marincin for a failure. I dont see much difference between Petry and Marincin. Maybe one day Marincin turns out to be better, but from all accounts he sounds like Whitney is his top end potential: A top 4 d-man with wide range of skills. And most of the prospects never reach thier top end potential, i.e he might just end up being like Petry. Then why not slot Petry ahead of him as Petry is definitely more NHL ready
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
Are we convinced that Petry really is a top-4 dman? Perhaps if he continues to evolve he could be a second-pairing guy but, right now, isn’t he a bottom pairing guy on a bad team? Petry himself had a disaster season a couple of years back in college, and is 24 compared to Maracin’s 19. Perhaps we have a clearer idea what Petry will be, but I see Maracin’s bottom end at what Petry is now, and his top end to be higher. But that’s just me.
Oh no. I am not saying Petry is a top4 d-man. I am saying is both project to be top 4 d-men and Petry is closer to achieving it.
I too think that Marincin has the potential to be better, but IMO its close.
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
I am sure everyone has thier own criteria, but you can listen to Scott’s rationale in his interview on Nation Radio
Success is not a goal..its a byproduct
As Sum said, we all have our own criteria, but mine is, essentially, imagining that each player is a restricted free agent, and then asking which guy I’d rather have.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 26, 2011 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Can you please clarify? As an RFA now, 3 years from now, or at there theoritical peak? Something else?
In the here and now. The question each time is, “If I have a choice between unsigned Player A and unsigned Player B, which would I prefer?” That way the emphasis is on talent rather than contract, which I think is appropriate for this exercise.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 27, 2011 12:23 PM MDT up reply actions
I think that leaves you open to a ton of swings in the rankings. Actually, it’s not just you, I noticed some severe swings in the rankings from all of you.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The reason players move around in the rankings is because we constantly have new information both in the form of new players and in the form of old players doing new things. It’s a particularly strange critique coming from you since you both know this and move players around yourself. In this iteration, for instance, we have 19 returning players in the top 25; both you and I moved six of them more than three spots. My biggest move among those players was moving both Plante and Roy down eight spots. Your biggest move among those players was moving Plante down nineteen spots.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 27, 2011 5:20 PM MDT up reply actions
The 19 on Plante is me giving up on him. His comparables and drafted peers were decent but he’s not keeping up. For the rest, I’ve been more consistent than anyone over the last three rankings.
I guess it’s not the ups or downs, it’s the yoyo-ing.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jul 27, 2011 7:01 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Well if it’s consistency you want, I’ll just click “no change” in all 25 boxes next time. If it’s opinions you want, you better be prepared for them to change with new information.
Writer for The Cult of Hockey, The Copper & Blue, and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 27, 2011 8:05 PM MDT up reply actions
With players coming and going from the organization and the actual performances of the players remaining all counted in, I think some volatility is to be expected. If we look at the the last three lists but confine ourselves to the seventeen guys who’ve been in the top twenty-five all three times, a lot of the big ups and downs smooth out for all of us. I, for instance, have one player who has a significant movement in different directions (Hartikainen), as do you (Peckham). We also both have guys who make moves in both directions where one or both is just a small bump. Maybe you’ve looked at things differently to come to your conclusions, but I don’t see why you think you’re more consistent than everybody else.
The biggest fanana of the Havana Bananas.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 27, 2011 10:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Throw him a bone
It’s beyond me why Marincin doesn’t get a sniff. Are we not trying to build a defence? The guy is 19 years old… 6’ 5" brimming with potential. It’s great to see some depth building up, but throw these guys like Teubert and Marincin a bone every once in a while to get those juices flowing and move them forward.
Granted there are others ahead of him on the depth chart, but it just seems silly to have not given him some playing time at the end of last year.
We need more of these types of dmen to make it really difficult for teams to play against us.
He’s raw, gangly and awkward at times so he’s not, by any means, a sure thing yet, but he’s got a variety of skills that make him one of the most intriguing prospects in the organization.
Saw him skate for a month with the Barons (only played in one game). Gangly and awkward for sure. Ala Seinfeld “full body hiccup”
I find him wildly interesting and unpredictable. And I kind of like that.
Tending The Farm in OKC!
by Neal Livingston on Jul 26, 2011 8:30 AM MDT reply actions
I think that’s one of the main reasons I hold out more hope for him than others – precisely because he’s a 19 year old who needs to get used to his big, lanky body. I think some of the consistency issues are to do with putting the physical tools together over an entire season. I’d be interested to hear from Jon if he drops by given that his rating is high.
I understand that Prince George has a reputation of having players drop off in production as the season progresses largely due to their brutal travel schedule.
I have no idea if there is anything to this or not, but by eye it seems to be true. Whenever they get to Calgary (which is usually part of a long road trip towards the end of the season) they look extremely sluggish.
If there is anything to it then this, in combination with his inexperience with such a long season, would make his second half entirely predictable/excusable.
by TigerUnderGlass on Jul 26, 2011 1:06 PM MDT reply actions
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